DRB-3 · Prospective Aggregate
Primary Aggregate Results
One fixed prospective cohort. Frozen pregame structure first. Outcomes remain dark until the untouched-forward holdout permits them.
Descriptive research only · Canonical observations were frozen before first pitch · Results never retroactively change the Board
Primary cohort window: first successful canonical date on/after Aug. 18, 2026 through Sep. 27, 2026. Earliest outcome reveal: Sep. 28, 2026 America/Chicago.
Prospective aggregate archive
Primary aggregate
Holdout window closed
Did more suppression-friendly pregame structure associate with lower completed scoring and more negative margin relative to the frozen market? These are descriptive associations only.
StatusPrimary cohort complete
Primary start2026-08-18
Primary endSep. 27, 2026
Canonical dates37
Canonical observations496
Proximity Rank Cohorts
Rank #1, Top 3, and Top 5 are cumulative cohorts. Top 3 and Top 5 intentionally overlap and should not be summed.
Eligible ranked observations443
Rank #137
Top 3110
Top 5182
Remainder261
Failed Requirements
Counts use the classification frozen with each canonical Board.
0 failed2
1 failed3
2 failed15
3+ failed423
Weakest Link
Eligible weakest-link observations: 496. Tied frozen requirement sets remain one group.
- All requirements passedN 2
- Weakest link unavailableN 53
- Failed requirementsaway_bullpenN 120
- Failed requirementsaway_starter_kbbN 56
- Failed requirementsaway_starter_xeraN 45
- Failed requirementshome_bullpenN 132
- Failed requirementshome_starter_kbbN 46
- Failed requirementshome_starter_xeraN 42
xERA Pair Rank
considered = valid + empty + integrity failed. 37 = 37 + 0 + 0.
Board dates considered37
Valid37
Empty0
Integrity failed0
Rank #137
Top 3110
Top 5182
Remainder261
Pair-rank integrity details
- Valid
- 2026-08-18, 2026-08-19, 2026-08-20, 2026-08-21, 2026-08-22, 2026-08-23, 2026-08-24, 2026-08-25, 2026-08-26, 2026-08-30, 2026-08-31, 2026-09-01, 2026-09-02, 2026-09-03, 2026-09-04, 2026-09-05, 2026-09-06, 2026-09-07, 2026-09-08, 2026-09-09, 2026-09-10, 2026-09-11, 2026-09-12, 2026-09-13, 2026-09-14, 2026-09-15, 2026-09-16, 2026-09-17, 2026-09-18, 2026-09-19, 2026-09-20, 2026-09-21, 2026-09-22, 2026-09-24, 2026-09-25, 2026-09-26, 2026-09-27
- Empty
- None
- Integrity failed
- None
K-BB Pair Rank
considered = valid + empty + integrity failed. 37 = 37 + 0 + 0.
Board dates considered37
Valid37
Empty0
Integrity failed0
Rank #137
Top 3110
Top 5182
Remainder262
Pair-rank integrity details
- Valid
- 2026-08-18, 2026-08-19, 2026-08-20, 2026-08-21, 2026-08-22, 2026-08-23, 2026-08-24, 2026-08-25, 2026-08-26, 2026-08-30, 2026-08-31, 2026-09-01, 2026-09-02, 2026-09-03, 2026-09-04, 2026-09-05, 2026-09-06, 2026-09-07, 2026-09-08, 2026-09-09, 2026-09-10, 2026-09-11, 2026-09-12, 2026-09-13, 2026-09-14, 2026-09-15, 2026-09-16, 2026-09-17, 2026-09-18, 2026-09-19, 2026-09-20, 2026-09-21, 2026-09-22, 2026-09-24, 2026-09-25, 2026-09-26, 2026-09-27
- Empty
- None
- Integrity failed
- None
Bullpen Pair Rank
considered = valid + empty + integrity failed. 37 = 37 + 0 + 0.
Board dates considered37
Valid37
Empty0
Integrity failed0
Rank #137
Top 3111
Top 5183
Remainder313
Pair-rank integrity details
- Valid
- 2026-08-18, 2026-08-19, 2026-08-20, 2026-08-21, 2026-08-22, 2026-08-23, 2026-08-24, 2026-08-25, 2026-08-26, 2026-08-30, 2026-08-31, 2026-09-01, 2026-09-02, 2026-09-03, 2026-09-04, 2026-09-05, 2026-09-06, 2026-09-07, 2026-09-08, 2026-09-09, 2026-09-10, 2026-09-11, 2026-09-12, 2026-09-13, 2026-09-14, 2026-09-15, 2026-09-16, 2026-09-17, 2026-09-18, 2026-09-19, 2026-09-20, 2026-09-21, 2026-09-22, 2026-09-24, 2026-09-25, 2026-09-26, 2026-09-27
- Empty
- None
- Integrity failed
- None
Proximity Results
Rank cohorts are cumulative and overlap.
| Cohort | Eligible | Outcomes available | Outcomes unavailable | Market comparable | Mean final runs | Median final runs | Mean total margin | Median total margin | Under | Push | Over |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rank #1 | 37 | 37 | 0 | 37 | 8.00 | 7.00 | +0.54 | -0.50 | 20 · 54.1% | 0 · 0.0% | 17 · 45.9% |
| Top 3 | 110 | 110 | 0 | 110 | 8.51 | 8.00 | +0.87 | +0.50 | 49 · 44.5% | 3 · 2.7% | 58 · 52.7% |
| Top 5 | 182 | 182 | 0 | 182 | 8.24 | 7.00 | +0.51 | 0.00 | 90 · 49.5% | 5 · 2.7% | 87 · 47.8% |
| Remainder | 261 | 260 | 1 | 260 | 9.51 | 9.00 | +0.99 | +0.50 | 112 · 43.1% | 8 · 3.1% | 140 · 53.8% |
Failed-Requirement Results
| Cohort | Eligible | Outcomes available | Outcomes unavailable | Market comparable | Mean final runs | Median final runs | Mean total margin | Median total margin | Under | Push | Over |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 failed | 2 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 4.00 | 4.00 | -2.25 | -2.25 | 2 · 100.0% | 0 · 0.0% | 0 · 0.0% |
| 1 failed | 3 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 5.67 | 6.00 | -1.50 | -2.00 | 2 · 66.7% | 0 · 0.0% | 1 · 33.3% |
| 2 failed | 15 | 15 | 0 | 15 | 7.73 | 7.00 | +0.50 | +0.50 | 7 · 46.7% | 0 · 0.0% | 8 · 53.3% |
| 3+ failed | 423 | 422 | 1 | 422 | 9.08 | 9.00 | +0.83 | +0.50 | 191 · 45.3% | 13 · 3.1% | 218 · 51.7% |
Weakest-Link Results
Frozen signatures are not regrouped into individual requirements.
| Signature | Eligible | Outcomes available | Outcomes unavailable | Market comparable | Mean final runs | Median final runs | Mean total margin | Median total margin | Under | Push | Over |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| All requirements passed | 2 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 4.00 | 4.00 | -2.25 | -2.25 | 2 · 100.0% | 0 · 0.0% | 0 · 0.0% |
| Weakest link unavailable | 53 | 53 | 0 | 53 | 9.70 | 9.00 | +1.49 | +0.50 | 19 · 35.8% | 2 · 3.8% | 32 · 60.4% |
| Failed requirements · away_bullpen | 120 | 120 | 0 | 120 | 8.96 | 9.00 | +1.03 | +0.50 | 50 · 41.7% | 7 · 5.8% | 63 · 52.5% |
| Failed requirements · away_starter_kbb | 56 | 56 | 0 | 56 | 9.18 | 9.00 | +1.17 | +0.50 | 22 · 39.3% | 1 · 1.8% | 33 · 58.9% |
| Failed requirements · away_starter_xera | 45 | 45 | 0 | 45 | 8.58 | 8.00 | +0.54 | 0.00 | 22 · 48.9% | 2 · 4.4% | 21 · 46.7% |
| Failed requirements · home_bullpen | 132 | 132 | 0 | 132 | 9.98 | 9.50 | +1.43 | +1.00 | 50 · 37.9% | 2 · 1.5% | 80 · 60.6% |
| Failed requirements · home_starter_kbb | 46 | 45 | 1 | 45 | 7.24 | 7.00 | -0.81 | -1.00 | 31 · 68.9% | 1 · 2.2% | 13 · 28.9% |
| Failed requirements · home_starter_xera | 42 | 42 | 0 | 42 | 8.19 | 7.00 | -0.25 | -1.25 | 25 · 59.5% | 0 · 0.0% | 17 · 40.5% |
xERA Pair Results
| Cohort | Eligible | Outcomes available | Outcomes unavailable | Market comparable | Mean final runs | Median final runs | Mean total margin | Median total margin | Under | Push | Over |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rank #1 | 37 | 37 | 0 | 37 | 8.70 | 7.00 | +1.16 | 0.00 | 18 · 48.6% | 2 · 5.4% | 17 · 45.9% |
| Top 3 | 110 | 110 | 0 | 110 | 9.13 | 9.00 | +1.39 | +1.50 | 44 · 40.0% | 2 · 1.8% | 64 · 58.2% |
| Top 5 | 182 | 182 | 0 | 182 | 8.53 | 8.00 | +0.66 | +0.50 | 84 · 46.2% | 3 · 1.6% | 95 · 52.2% |
| Remainder | 261 | 260 | 1 | 260 | 9.30 | 9.00 | +0.89 | +0.50 | 118 · 45.4% | 10 · 3.8% | 132 · 50.8% |
K-BB Pair Results
| Cohort | Eligible | Outcomes available | Outcomes unavailable | Market comparable | Mean final runs | Median final runs | Mean total margin | Median total margin | Under | Push | Over |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rank #1 | 37 | 37 | 0 | 37 | 8.38 | 7.00 | +0.89 | -0.50 | 20 · 54.1% | 0 · 0.0% | 17 · 45.9% |
| Top 3 | 110 | 110 | 0 | 110 | 8.67 | 7.00 | +0.94 | +0.25 | 54 · 49.1% | 1 · 0.9% | 55 · 50.0% |
| Top 5 | 182 | 182 | 0 | 182 | 8.77 | 8.50 | +0.87 | +0.50 | 86 · 47.3% | 2 · 1.1% | 94 · 51.6% |
| Remainder | 262 | 261 | 1 | 261 | 9.13 | 9.00 | +0.73 | +0.50 | 117 · 44.8% | 11 · 4.2% | 133 · 51.0% |
Bullpen Pair Results
| Cohort | Eligible | Outcomes available | Outcomes unavailable | Market comparable | Mean final runs | Median final runs | Mean total margin | Median total margin | Under | Push | Over |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rank #1 | 37 | 36 | 1 | 36 | 8.31 | 7.00 | +0.57 | -0.25 | 18 · 50.0% | 1 · 2.8% | 17 · 47.2% |
| Top 3 | 111 | 110 | 1 | 110 | 8.75 | 8.00 | +0.85 | +0.50 | 52 · 47.3% | 2 · 1.8% | 56 · 50.9% |
| Top 5 | 183 | 182 | 1 | 182 | 8.28 | 7.00 | +0.35 | -0.50 | 93 · 51.1% | 5 · 2.7% | 84 · 46.2% |
| Remainder | 313 | 313 | 0 | 313 | 9.51 | 9.00 | +1.17 | +0.50 | 128 · 40.9% | 10 · 3.2% | 175 · 55.9% |