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Duel Filter V1 · Daily research cohort

Suppression Candidates

The original pitcher-duel hypothesis, evaluated with immutable point-in-time starter and bullpen snapshots.

Research benchmark only · A cohort match is not a betting recommendation
Evaluated3
V1 matches0
Rejected2
Incomplete1

Point-in-time audit

Daily evaluations

Private source connected
Sep 21, 5:35 PM CDTOriole Park at Camden Yards
Does not match

Away

Toronto Blue Jays

Trey Yesavageprobable

xERA
3.40
K-BB%
11.7%
Bullpen
#7

Pitcher stats through 2026-09-21

at

Home

Baltimore Orioles

Shane Bazprobable

xERA
4.21
K-BB%
12.4%
Bullpen
#10

Pitcher stats through 2026-09-21

Does not match

The evaluation was complete, but one or more immutable V1 thresholds did not pass.

Thresholds not met

  • Trey YesavagexERA

    Trey Yesavage recorded a 3.40 xERA. V1 requires each starter to be below 3.25.

    Observed
    3.40
    V1 requirement
    Below 3.25

    Exactly 3.25 does not pass this V1 rule.

    away_starter_xera_not_below_3_25

  • Shane BazxERA

    Shane Baz recorded a 4.21 xERA. V1 requires each starter to be below 3.25.

    Observed
    4.21
    V1 requirement
    Below 3.25

    Exactly 3.25 does not pass this V1 rule.

    home_starter_xera_not_below_3_25

  • Trey YesavageK-BB%

    Trey Yesavage recorded a 11.7% K-BB%. V1 requires each starter to be above 18.0%.

    Observed
    11.7%
    V1 requirement
    Above 18.0%

    Exactly 18.0% does not pass this V1 rule.

    away_starter_k_minus_bb_not_above_18pct

  • Shane BazK-BB%

    Shane Baz recorded a 12.4% K-BB%. V1 requires each starter to be above 18.0%.

    Observed
    12.4%
    V1 requirement
    Above 18.0%

    Exactly 18.0% does not pass this V1 rule.

    home_starter_k_minus_bb_not_above_18pct

Duel Filter V1 · v1.0.0Evaluated Sep 21, 9:17 AM CDTInputs updated Sep 21, 9:17 AM CDTMLB 824787
Sep 21, 5:40 PM CDTComerica Park
Incomplete data

Away

Washington Nationals

DJ Herzprobable

xERA
—
K-BB%
—
Bullpen
#28

Pitcher stats through not available

at

Home

Detroit Tigers

River Ryanprobable

xERA
—
K-BB%
—
Bullpen
#11

Pitcher stats through not available

Incomplete data

No pass/fail conclusion was made because required point-in-time evidence was missing.

Missing point-in-time inputs

  • DJ HerzxERA

    No point-in-time xERA snapshot was linked for DJ Herz when this evaluation ran. V1 did not infer a replacement value.

    Observed
    Missing at evaluation
    V1 requirement
    Below 3.25

    missing_away_starter_xera

  • River RyanxERA

    No point-in-time xERA snapshot was linked for River Ryan when this evaluation ran. V1 did not infer a replacement value.

    Observed
    Missing at evaluation
    V1 requirement
    Below 3.25

    missing_home_starter_xera

  • DJ HerzK-BB%

    No point-in-time K-BB% snapshot was linked for DJ Herz when this evaluation ran. V1 did not infer a replacement value.

    Observed
    Missing at evaluation
    V1 requirement
    Above 18.0%

    missing_away_starter_k_minus_bb

  • River RyanK-BB%

    No point-in-time K-BB% snapshot was linked for River Ryan when this evaluation ran. V1 did not infer a replacement value.

    Observed
    Missing at evaluation
    V1 requirement
    Above 18.0%

    missing_home_starter_k_minus_bb

Duel Filter V1 · v1.0.0Evaluated Sep 21, 9:17 AM CDTInputs updated Sep 21, 9:17 AM CDTMLB 824221
Sep 21, 8:45 PM CDTOracle Park
Does not match

Away

Minnesota Twins

Zebby Matthewsprobable

xERA
4.48
K-BB%
13.0%
Bullpen
#26

Pitcher stats through 2026-09-21

at

Home

San Francisco Giants

Blade Tidwellprobable

xERA
4.51
K-BB%
9.5%
Bullpen
#19

Pitcher stats through 2026-09-21

Does not match

The evaluation was complete, but one or more immutable V1 thresholds did not pass.

Thresholds not met

  • Zebby MatthewsxERA

    Zebby Matthews recorded a 4.48 xERA. V1 requires each starter to be below 3.25.

    Observed
    4.48
    V1 requirement
    Below 3.25

    Exactly 3.25 does not pass this V1 rule.

    away_starter_xera_not_below_3_25

  • Blade TidwellxERA

    Blade Tidwell recorded a 4.51 xERA. V1 requires each starter to be below 3.25.

    Observed
    4.51
    V1 requirement
    Below 3.25

    Exactly 3.25 does not pass this V1 rule.

    home_starter_xera_not_below_3_25

  • Zebby MatthewsK-BB%

    Zebby Matthews recorded a 13.0% K-BB%. V1 requires each starter to be above 18.0%.

    Observed
    13.0%
    V1 requirement
    Above 18.0%

    Exactly 18.0% does not pass this V1 rule.

    away_starter_k_minus_bb_not_above_18pct

  • Blade TidwellK-BB%

    Blade Tidwell recorded a 9.5% K-BB%. V1 requires each starter to be above 18.0%.

    Observed
    9.5%
    V1 requirement
    Above 18.0%

    Exactly 18.0% does not pass this V1 rule.

    home_starter_k_minus_bb_not_above_18pct

  • Minnesota Twins bullpenBullpen ERA rank

    Minnesota Twins bullpen recorded a #26 ERA rank. V1 requires each bullpen to be in the top 10 (#1–#10).

    Observed
    #26
    V1 requirement
    Top 10 (#1–#10)

    away_bullpen_era_rank_not_top_10

  • San Francisco Giants bullpenBullpen ERA rank

    San Francisco Giants bullpen recorded a #19 ERA rank. V1 requires each bullpen to be in the top 10 (#1–#10).

    Observed
    #19
    V1 requirement
    Top 10 (#1–#10)

    home_bullpen_era_rank_not_top_10

Duel Filter V1 · v1.0.0Evaluated Sep 21, 9:17 AM CDTInputs updated Sep 21, 9:17 AM CDTMLB 823169