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Duel Filter V1 · Daily research cohort

Suppression Candidates

The original pitcher-duel hypothesis, evaluated with immutable point-in-time starter and bullpen snapshots.

Research benchmark only · A cohort match is not a betting recommendation

Evaluated9

V1 matches0

Rejected8

Incomplete1

Point-in-time audit

Daily evaluations

Private source connected

Sep 17, 11:35 AM CDTPNC Park

Does not match

Away

Milwaukee Brewers

Kyle Harrisonprobable

xERA: 3.85
K-BB%: 21.3%
Bullpen: #4

Pitcher stats through 2026-09-17

Home

Pittsburgh Pirates

Wilber Dotelprobable

xERA: 3.74
K-BB%: 14.7%
Bullpen: #19

Pitcher stats through 2026-09-17

Does not match

The evaluation was complete, but one or more immutable V1 thresholds did not pass.

Thresholds not met

Kyle HarrisonxERA
Kyle Harrison recorded a 3.85 xERA. V1 requires each starter to be below 3.25.
Observed
3.85
V1 requirement
Below 3.25
Exactly 3.25 does not pass this V1 rule.
away_starter_xera_not_below_3_25
Wilber DotelxERA
Wilber Dotel recorded a 3.74 xERA. V1 requires each starter to be below 3.25.
Observed
3.74
V1 requirement
Below 3.25
Exactly 3.25 does not pass this V1 rule.
home_starter_xera_not_below_3_25
Wilber DotelK-BB%
Wilber Dotel recorded a 14.7% K-BB%. V1 requires each starter to be above 18.0%.
Observed
14.7%
V1 requirement
Above 18.0%
Exactly 18.0% does not pass this V1 rule.
home_starter_k_minus_bb_not_above_18pct
Pittsburgh Pirates bullpenBullpen ERA rank
Pittsburgh Pirates bullpen recorded a #19 ERA rank. V1 requires each bullpen to be in the top 10 (#1–#10).
Observed
#19
V1 requirement
Top 10 (#1–#10)
home_bullpen_era_rank_not_top_10

Duel Filter V1 · v1.0.0Evaluated Sep 17, 9:17 AM CDTInputs updated Sep 17, 9:17 AM CDTMLB 823334

Sep 17, 11:40 AM CDTGreat American Ball Park

Does not match

Away

Los Angeles Dodgers

Justin Wrobleskiprobable

xERA: 4.70
K-BB%: 14.5%
Bullpen: #14

Pitcher stats through 2026-09-17

Home

Cincinnati Reds

Brady Singerprobable

xERA: 5.41
K-BB%: 10.1%
Bullpen: #25

Pitcher stats through 2026-09-17

Does not match

The evaluation was complete, but one or more immutable V1 thresholds did not pass.

Thresholds not met

Justin WrobleskixERA
Justin Wrobleski recorded a 4.70 xERA. V1 requires each starter to be below 3.25.
Observed
4.70
V1 requirement
Below 3.25
Exactly 3.25 does not pass this V1 rule.
away_starter_xera_not_below_3_25
Brady SingerxERA
Brady Singer recorded a 5.41 xERA. V1 requires each starter to be below 3.25.
Observed
5.41
V1 requirement
Below 3.25
Exactly 3.25 does not pass this V1 rule.
home_starter_xera_not_below_3_25
Justin WrobleskiK-BB%
Justin Wrobleski recorded a 14.5% K-BB%. V1 requires each starter to be above 18.0%.
Observed
14.5%
V1 requirement
Above 18.0%
Exactly 18.0% does not pass this V1 rule.
away_starter_k_minus_bb_not_above_18pct
Brady SingerK-BB%
Brady Singer recorded a 10.1% K-BB%. V1 requires each starter to be above 18.0%.
Observed
10.1%
V1 requirement
Above 18.0%
Exactly 18.0% does not pass this V1 rule.
home_starter_k_minus_bb_not_above_18pct
Los Angeles Dodgers bullpenBullpen ERA rank
Los Angeles Dodgers bullpen recorded a #14 ERA rank. V1 requires each bullpen to be in the top 10 (#1–#10).
Observed
#14
V1 requirement
Top 10 (#1–#10)
away_bullpen_era_rank_not_top_10
Cincinnati Reds bullpenBullpen ERA rank
Cincinnati Reds bullpen recorded a #25 ERA rank. V1 requires each bullpen to be in the top 10 (#1–#10).
Observed
#25
V1 requirement
Top 10 (#1–#10)
home_bullpen_era_rank_not_top_10

Duel Filter V1 · v1.0.0Evaluated Sep 17, 9:17 AM CDTInputs updated Sep 17, 9:17 AM CDTMLB 824464

Sep 17, 12:10 PM CDTTropicana Field

Does not match

Away

Athletics

Jeffrey Springsprobable

xERA: 4.86
K-BB%: 8.6%
Bullpen: #30

Pitcher stats through 2026-09-17

Home

Tampa Bay Rays

Drew Rasmussenprobable

xERA: 3.09
K-BB%: 21.3%
Bullpen: #16

Pitcher stats through 2026-09-17

Does not match

The evaluation was complete, but one or more immutable V1 thresholds did not pass.

Thresholds not met

Jeffrey SpringsxERA
Jeffrey Springs recorded a 4.86 xERA. V1 requires each starter to be below 3.25.
Observed
4.86
V1 requirement
Below 3.25
Exactly 3.25 does not pass this V1 rule.
away_starter_xera_not_below_3_25
Jeffrey SpringsK-BB%
Jeffrey Springs recorded a 8.6% K-BB%. V1 requires each starter to be above 18.0%.
Observed
8.6%
V1 requirement
Above 18.0%
Exactly 18.0% does not pass this V1 rule.
away_starter_k_minus_bb_not_above_18pct
Athletics bullpenBullpen ERA rank
Athletics bullpen recorded a #30 ERA rank. V1 requires each bullpen to be in the top 10 (#1–#10).
Observed
#30
V1 requirement
Top 10 (#1–#10)
away_bullpen_era_rank_not_top_10
Tampa Bay Rays bullpenBullpen ERA rank
Tampa Bay Rays bullpen recorded a #16 ERA rank. V1 requires each bullpen to be in the top 10 (#1–#10).
Observed
#16
V1 requirement
Top 10 (#1–#10)
home_bullpen_era_rank_not_top_10

Duel Filter V1 · v1.0.0Evaluated Sep 17, 9:17 AM CDTInputs updated Sep 17, 9:17 AM CDTMLB 822924

Sep 17, 2:10 PM CDTCoors Field

Does not match

Away

San Diego Padres

Michael Kingprobable

xERA: 4.42
K-BB%: 11.5%
Bullpen: #5

Pitcher stats through 2026-09-17

Home

Colorado Rockies

Tanner Gordonprobable

xERA: 4.58
K-BB%: 14.7%
Bullpen: #27

Pitcher stats through 2026-09-17

Does not match

The evaluation was complete, but one or more immutable V1 thresholds did not pass.

Thresholds not met

Michael KingxERA
Michael King recorded a 4.42 xERA. V1 requires each starter to be below 3.25.
Observed
4.42
V1 requirement
Below 3.25
Exactly 3.25 does not pass this V1 rule.
away_starter_xera_not_below_3_25
Tanner GordonxERA
Tanner Gordon recorded a 4.58 xERA. V1 requires each starter to be below 3.25.
Observed
4.58
V1 requirement
Below 3.25
Exactly 3.25 does not pass this V1 rule.
home_starter_xera_not_below_3_25
Michael KingK-BB%
Michael King recorded a 11.5% K-BB%. V1 requires each starter to be above 18.0%.
Observed
11.5%
V1 requirement
Above 18.0%
Exactly 18.0% does not pass this V1 rule.
away_starter_k_minus_bb_not_above_18pct
Tanner GordonK-BB%
Tanner Gordon recorded a 14.7% K-BB%. V1 requires each starter to be above 18.0%.
Observed
14.7%
V1 requirement
Above 18.0%
Exactly 18.0% does not pass this V1 rule.
home_starter_k_minus_bb_not_above_18pct
Colorado Rockies bullpenBullpen ERA rank
Colorado Rockies bullpen recorded a #27 ERA rank. V1 requires each bullpen to be in the top 10 (#1–#10).
Observed
#27
V1 requirement
Top 10 (#1–#10)
home_bullpen_era_rank_not_top_10

Duel Filter V1 · v1.0.0Evaluated Sep 17, 9:17 AM CDTInputs updated Sep 17, 9:17 AM CDTMLB 824305

Sep 17, 6:15 PM CDTDaikin Park

Incomplete data

Away

Kansas City Royals

Seth Lugoprobable

xERA: 5.06
K-BB%: 10.3%
Bullpen: #28

Pitcher stats through 2026-09-17

Home

Houston Astros

Starter not linkedunknown

xERA: —
K-BB%: —
Bullpen: #17

Pitcher stats through not available

Incomplete data

No pass/fail conclusion was made because required point-in-time evidence was missing.

Missing point-in-time inputs

Houston Astros starterxERA
No point-in-time xERA snapshot was linked for Houston Astros starter when this evaluation ran. V1 did not infer a replacement value.
Observed
Missing at evaluation
V1 requirement
Below 3.25
missing_home_starter_xera
Houston Astros starterK-BB%
No point-in-time K-BB% snapshot was linked for Houston Astros starter when this evaluation ran. V1 did not infer a replacement value.
Observed
Missing at evaluation
V1 requirement
Above 18.0%
missing_home_starter_k_minus_bb

Duel Filter V1 · v1.0.0Evaluated Sep 17, 9:17 AM CDTInputs updated Sep 17, 9:17 AM CDTMLB 824141

Sep 17, 6:15 PM CDTCiti Field

Does not match

Away

Philadelphia Phillies

Aaron Nolaprobable

xERA: 4.07
K-BB%: 15.9%
Bullpen: #20

Pitcher stats through 2026-09-17

Home

New York Mets

Nolan McLeanprobable

xERA: 3.71
K-BB%: 17.0%
Bullpen: #9

Pitcher stats through 2026-09-17

Does not match

The evaluation was complete, but one or more immutable V1 thresholds did not pass.

Thresholds not met

Aaron NolaxERA
Aaron Nola recorded a 4.07 xERA. V1 requires each starter to be below 3.25.
Observed
4.07
V1 requirement
Below 3.25
Exactly 3.25 does not pass this V1 rule.
away_starter_xera_not_below_3_25
Nolan McLeanxERA
Nolan McLean recorded a 3.71 xERA. V1 requires each starter to be below 3.25.
Observed
3.71
V1 requirement
Below 3.25
Exactly 3.25 does not pass this V1 rule.
home_starter_xera_not_below_3_25
Aaron NolaK-BB%
Aaron Nola recorded a 15.9% K-BB%. V1 requires each starter to be above 18.0%.
Observed
15.9%
V1 requirement
Above 18.0%
Exactly 18.0% does not pass this V1 rule.
away_starter_k_minus_bb_not_above_18pct
Nolan McLeanK-BB%
Nolan McLean recorded a 17.0% K-BB%. V1 requires each starter to be above 18.0%.
Observed
17.0%
V1 requirement
Above 18.0%
Exactly 18.0% does not pass this V1 rule.
home_starter_k_minus_bb_not_above_18pct
Philadelphia Phillies bullpenBullpen ERA rank
Philadelphia Phillies bullpen recorded a #20 ERA rank. V1 requires each bullpen to be in the top 10 (#1–#10).
Observed
#20
V1 requirement
Top 10 (#1–#10)
away_bullpen_era_rank_not_top_10

Duel Filter V1 · v1.0.0Evaluated Sep 17, 9:17 AM CDTInputs updated Sep 17, 9:17 AM CDTMLB 823573

Sep 17, 6:40 PM CDTRate Field

Does not match

Away

Detroit Tigers

Framber Valdezprobable

xERA: 4.42
K-BB%: 8.6%
Bullpen: #11

Pitcher stats through 2026-09-17

Home

Chicago White Sox

Erick Feddeprobable

xERA: 4.67
K-BB%: 7.5%
Bullpen: #7

Pitcher stats through 2026-09-17

Does not match

The evaluation was complete, but one or more immutable V1 thresholds did not pass.

Thresholds not met

Framber ValdezxERA
Framber Valdez recorded a 4.42 xERA. V1 requires each starter to be below 3.25.
Observed
4.42
V1 requirement
Below 3.25
Exactly 3.25 does not pass this V1 rule.
away_starter_xera_not_below_3_25
Erick FeddexERA
Erick Fedde recorded a 4.67 xERA. V1 requires each starter to be below 3.25.
Observed
4.67
V1 requirement
Below 3.25
Exactly 3.25 does not pass this V1 rule.
home_starter_xera_not_below_3_25
Framber ValdezK-BB%
Framber Valdez recorded a 8.6% K-BB%. V1 requires each starter to be above 18.0%.
Observed
8.6%
V1 requirement
Above 18.0%
Exactly 18.0% does not pass this V1 rule.
away_starter_k_minus_bb_not_above_18pct
Erick FeddeK-BB%
Erick Fedde recorded a 7.5% K-BB%. V1 requires each starter to be above 18.0%.
Observed
7.5%
V1 requirement
Above 18.0%
Exactly 18.0% does not pass this V1 rule.
home_starter_k_minus_bb_not_above_18pct
Detroit Tigers bullpenBullpen ERA rank
Detroit Tigers bullpen recorded a #11 ERA rank. V1 requires each bullpen to be in the top 10 (#1–#10).
Observed
#11
V1 requirement
Top 10 (#1–#10)
away_bullpen_era_rank_not_top_10

Duel Filter V1 · v1.0.0Evaluated Sep 17, 9:17 AM CDTInputs updated Sep 17, 9:17 AM CDTMLB 824548

Sep 17, 7:05 PM CDTGlobe Life Field

Does not match

Away

Boston Red Sox

Sonny Grayprobable

xERA: 3.82
K-BB%: 15.4%
Bullpen: #2

Pitcher stats through 2026-09-17

Home

Texas Rangers

Tyler Alexanderprobable

xERA: 3.14
K-BB%: 13.4%
Bullpen: #22

Pitcher stats through 2026-09-17

Does not match

The evaluation was complete, but one or more immutable V1 thresholds did not pass.

Thresholds not met

Sonny GrayxERA
Sonny Gray recorded a 3.82 xERA. V1 requires each starter to be below 3.25.
Observed
3.82
V1 requirement
Below 3.25
Exactly 3.25 does not pass this V1 rule.
away_starter_xera_not_below_3_25
Sonny GrayK-BB%
Sonny Gray recorded a 15.4% K-BB%. V1 requires each starter to be above 18.0%.
Observed
15.4%
V1 requirement
Above 18.0%
Exactly 18.0% does not pass this V1 rule.
away_starter_k_minus_bb_not_above_18pct
Tyler AlexanderK-BB%
Tyler Alexander recorded a 13.4% K-BB%. V1 requires each starter to be above 18.0%.
Observed
13.4%
V1 requirement
Above 18.0%
Exactly 18.0% does not pass this V1 rule.
home_starter_k_minus_bb_not_above_18pct
Texas Rangers bullpenBullpen ERA rank
Texas Rangers bullpen recorded a #22 ERA rank. V1 requires each bullpen to be in the top 10 (#1–#10).
Observed
#22
V1 requirement
Top 10 (#1–#10)
home_bullpen_era_rank_not_top_10

Duel Filter V1 · v1.0.0Evaluated Sep 17, 9:17 AM CDTInputs updated Sep 17, 9:17 AM CDTMLB 822845

Sep 17, 8:38 PM CDTAngel Stadium

Does not match

Away

Minnesota Twins

Taj Bradleyprobable

xERA: 3.98
K-BB%: 16.9%
Bullpen: #26

Pitcher stats through 2026-09-17

Home

Los Angeles Angels

Walbert Ureñaprobable

xERA: 3.40
K-BB%: 11.0%
Bullpen: #21

Pitcher stats through 2026-09-17

Does not match

The evaluation was complete, but one or more immutable V1 thresholds did not pass.

Thresholds not met

Taj BradleyxERA
Taj Bradley recorded a 3.98 xERA. V1 requires each starter to be below 3.25.
Observed
3.98
V1 requirement
Below 3.25
Exactly 3.25 does not pass this V1 rule.
away_starter_xera_not_below_3_25
Walbert UreñaxERA
Walbert Ureña recorded a 3.40 xERA. V1 requires each starter to be below 3.25.
Observed
3.40
V1 requirement
Below 3.25
Exactly 3.25 does not pass this V1 rule.
home_starter_xera_not_below_3_25
Taj BradleyK-BB%
Taj Bradley recorded a 16.9% K-BB%. V1 requires each starter to be above 18.0%.
Observed
16.9%
V1 requirement
Above 18.0%
Exactly 18.0% does not pass this V1 rule.
away_starter_k_minus_bb_not_above_18pct
Walbert UreñaK-BB%
Walbert Ureña recorded a 11.0% K-BB%. V1 requires each starter to be above 18.0%.
Observed
11.0%
V1 requirement
Above 18.0%
Exactly 18.0% does not pass this V1 rule.
home_starter_k_minus_bb_not_above_18pct
Minnesota Twins bullpenBullpen ERA rank
Minnesota Twins bullpen recorded a #26 ERA rank. V1 requires each bullpen to be in the top 10 (#1–#10).
Observed
#26
V1 requirement
Top 10 (#1–#10)
away_bullpen_era_rank_not_top_10
Los Angeles Angels bullpenBullpen ERA rank
Los Angeles Angels bullpen recorded a #21 ERA rank. V1 requires each bullpen to be in the top 10 (#1–#10).
Observed
#21
V1 requirement
Top 10 (#1–#10)
home_bullpen_era_rank_not_top_10

Duel Filter V1 · v1.0.0Evaluated Sep 17, 9:17 AM CDTInputs updated Sep 17, 9:17 AM CDTMLB 823978