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Duel Filter V1 · Daily research cohort

Suppression Candidates

The original pitcher-duel hypothesis, evaluated with immutable point-in-time starter and bullpen snapshots.

Research benchmark only · A cohort match is not a betting recommendation

Evaluated10

V1 matches0

Rejected10

Incomplete0

Point-in-time audit

Daily evaluations

Private source connected

Sep 14, 5:40 PM CDTGreat American Ball Park

Does not match

Away

Los Angeles Dodgers

Tarik Skubalprobable

xERA: 3.03
K-BB%: 25.5%
Bullpen: #13

Pitcher stats through 2026-09-14

Home

Cincinnati Reds

Nick Lodoloprobable

xERA: 6.45
K-BB%: 9.1%
Bullpen: #25

Pitcher stats through 2026-09-14

Does not match

The evaluation was complete, but one or more immutable V1 thresholds did not pass.

Thresholds not met

Nick LodoloxERA
Nick Lodolo recorded a 6.45 xERA. V1 requires each starter to be below 3.25.
Observed
6.45
V1 requirement
Below 3.25
Exactly 3.25 does not pass this V1 rule.
home_starter_xera_not_below_3_25
Nick LodoloK-BB%
Nick Lodolo recorded a 9.1% K-BB%. V1 requires each starter to be above 18.0%.
Observed
9.1%
V1 requirement
Above 18.0%
Exactly 18.0% does not pass this V1 rule.
home_starter_k_minus_bb_not_above_18pct
Los Angeles Dodgers bullpenBullpen ERA rank
Los Angeles Dodgers bullpen recorded a #13 ERA rank. V1 requires each bullpen to be in the top 10 (#1–#10).
Observed
#13
V1 requirement
Top 10 (#1–#10)
away_bullpen_era_rank_not_top_10
Cincinnati Reds bullpenBullpen ERA rank
Cincinnati Reds bullpen recorded a #25 ERA rank. V1 requires each bullpen to be in the top 10 (#1–#10).
Observed
#25
V1 requirement
Top 10 (#1–#10)
home_bullpen_era_rank_not_top_10

Duel Filter V1 · v1.0.0Evaluated Sep 14, 9:17 AM CDTInputs updated Sep 14, 9:17 AM CDTMLB 824465

Sep 14, 5:40 PM CDTProgressive Field

Does not match

Away

Chicago White Sox

Sean Newcombprobable

xERA: 3.88
K-BB%: 13.9%
Bullpen: #8

Pitcher stats through 2026-09-14

Home

Cleveland Guardians

Gavin Williamsprobable

xERA: 3.80
K-BB%: 25.7%
Bullpen: #6

Pitcher stats through 2026-09-14

Does not match

The evaluation was complete, but one or more immutable V1 thresholds did not pass.

Thresholds not met

Sean NewcombxERA
Sean Newcomb recorded a 3.88 xERA. V1 requires each starter to be below 3.25.
Observed
3.88
V1 requirement
Below 3.25
Exactly 3.25 does not pass this V1 rule.
away_starter_xera_not_below_3_25
Gavin WilliamsxERA
Gavin Williams recorded a 3.80 xERA. V1 requires each starter to be below 3.25.
Observed
3.80
V1 requirement
Below 3.25
Exactly 3.25 does not pass this V1 rule.
home_starter_xera_not_below_3_25
Sean NewcombK-BB%
Sean Newcomb recorded a 13.9% K-BB%. V1 requires each starter to be above 18.0%.
Observed
13.9%
V1 requirement
Above 18.0%
Exactly 18.0% does not pass this V1 rule.
away_starter_k_minus_bb_not_above_18pct

Duel Filter V1 · v1.0.0Evaluated Sep 14, 9:17 AM CDTInputs updated Sep 14, 9:17 AM CDTMLB 824386

Sep 14, 6:07 PM CDTRogers Centre

Does not match

Away

Detroit Tigers

Troy Meltonprobable

xERA: 3.69
K-BB%: 13.1%
Bullpen: #10

Pitcher stats through 2026-09-14

Home

Toronto Blue Jays

José Sorianoprobable

xERA: 4.46
K-BB%: 12.2%
Bullpen: #7

Pitcher stats through 2026-09-14

Does not match

The evaluation was complete, but one or more immutable V1 thresholds did not pass.

Thresholds not met

Troy MeltonxERA
Troy Melton recorded a 3.69 xERA. V1 requires each starter to be below 3.25.
Observed
3.69
V1 requirement
Below 3.25
Exactly 3.25 does not pass this V1 rule.
away_starter_xera_not_below_3_25
José SorianoxERA
José Soriano recorded a 4.46 xERA. V1 requires each starter to be below 3.25.
Observed
4.46
V1 requirement
Below 3.25
Exactly 3.25 does not pass this V1 rule.
home_starter_xera_not_below_3_25
Troy MeltonK-BB%
Troy Melton recorded a 13.1% K-BB%. V1 requires each starter to be above 18.0%.
Observed
13.1%
V1 requirement
Above 18.0%
Exactly 18.0% does not pass this V1 rule.
away_starter_k_minus_bb_not_above_18pct
José SorianoK-BB%
José Soriano recorded a 12.2% K-BB%. V1 requires each starter to be above 18.0%.
Observed
12.2%
V1 requirement
Above 18.0%
Exactly 18.0% does not pass this V1 rule.
home_starter_k_minus_bb_not_above_18pct

Duel Filter V1 · v1.0.0Evaluated Sep 14, 9:17 AM CDTInputs updated Sep 14, 9:17 AM CDTMLB 822765

Sep 14, 6:10 PM CDTCiti Field

Does not match

Away

Baltimore Orioles

Brandon Youngprobable

xERA: 4.40
K-BB%: 10.2%
Bullpen: #12

Pitcher stats through 2026-09-14

Home

New York Mets

Jonah Tongprobable

xERA: 3.69
K-BB%: 8.8%
Bullpen: #9

Pitcher stats through 2026-09-14

Does not match

The evaluation was complete, but one or more immutable V1 thresholds did not pass.

Thresholds not met

Brandon YoungxERA
Brandon Young recorded a 4.40 xERA. V1 requires each starter to be below 3.25.
Observed
4.40
V1 requirement
Below 3.25
Exactly 3.25 does not pass this V1 rule.
away_starter_xera_not_below_3_25
Jonah TongxERA
Jonah Tong recorded a 3.69 xERA. V1 requires each starter to be below 3.25.
Observed
3.69
V1 requirement
Below 3.25
Exactly 3.25 does not pass this V1 rule.
home_starter_xera_not_below_3_25
Brandon YoungK-BB%
Brandon Young recorded a 10.2% K-BB%. V1 requires each starter to be above 18.0%.
Observed
10.2%
V1 requirement
Above 18.0%
Exactly 18.0% does not pass this V1 rule.
away_starter_k_minus_bb_not_above_18pct
Jonah TongK-BB%
Jonah Tong recorded a 8.8% K-BB%. V1 requires each starter to be above 18.0%.
Observed
8.8%
V1 requirement
Above 18.0%
Exactly 18.0% does not pass this V1 rule.
home_starter_k_minus_bb_not_above_18pct
Baltimore Orioles bullpenBullpen ERA rank
Baltimore Orioles bullpen recorded a #12 ERA rank. V1 requires each bullpen to be in the top 10 (#1–#10).
Observed
#12
V1 requirement
Top 10 (#1–#10)
away_bullpen_era_rank_not_top_10

Duel Filter V1 · v1.0.0Evaluated Sep 14, 9:17 AM CDTInputs updated Sep 14, 9:17 AM CDTMLB 823575

Sep 14, 6:40 PM CDTWrigley Field

Does not match

Away

Atlanta Braves

Reynaldo Lópezprobable

xERA: 4.81
K-BB%: 11.9%
Bullpen: #3

Pitcher stats through 2026-09-14

Home

Chicago Cubs

David Petersonprobable

xERA: 5.01
K-BB%: 9.7%
Bullpen: #11

Pitcher stats through 2026-09-14

Does not match

The evaluation was complete, but one or more immutable V1 thresholds did not pass.

Thresholds not met

Reynaldo LópezxERA
Reynaldo López recorded a 4.81 xERA. V1 requires each starter to be below 3.25.
Observed
4.81
V1 requirement
Below 3.25
Exactly 3.25 does not pass this V1 rule.
away_starter_xera_not_below_3_25
David PetersonxERA
David Peterson recorded a 5.01 xERA. V1 requires each starter to be below 3.25.
Observed
5.01
V1 requirement
Below 3.25
Exactly 3.25 does not pass this V1 rule.
home_starter_xera_not_below_3_25
Reynaldo LópezK-BB%
Reynaldo López recorded a 11.9% K-BB%. V1 requires each starter to be above 18.0%.
Observed
11.9%
V1 requirement
Above 18.0%
Exactly 18.0% does not pass this V1 rule.
away_starter_k_minus_bb_not_above_18pct
David PetersonK-BB%
David Peterson recorded a 9.7% K-BB%. V1 requires each starter to be above 18.0%.
Observed
9.7%
V1 requirement
Above 18.0%
Exactly 18.0% does not pass this V1 rule.
home_starter_k_minus_bb_not_above_18pct
Chicago Cubs bullpenBullpen ERA rank
Chicago Cubs bullpen recorded a #11 ERA rank. V1 requires each bullpen to be in the top 10 (#1–#10).
Observed
#11
V1 requirement
Top 10 (#1–#10)
home_bullpen_era_rank_not_top_10

Duel Filter V1 · v1.0.0Evaluated Sep 14, 9:17 AM CDTInputs updated Sep 14, 9:17 AM CDTMLB 824629

Sep 14, 6:40 PM CDTTarget Field

Does not match

Away

New York Yankees

Will Warrenprobable

xERA: 4.49
K-BB%: 14.9%
Bullpen: #2

Pitcher stats through 2026-09-14

Home

Minnesota Twins

Dean Kremerprobable

xERA: 4.62
K-BB%: 14.7%
Bullpen: #26

Pitcher stats through 2026-09-14

Does not match

The evaluation was complete, but one or more immutable V1 thresholds did not pass.

Thresholds not met

Will WarrenxERA
Will Warren recorded a 4.49 xERA. V1 requires each starter to be below 3.25.
Observed
4.49
V1 requirement
Below 3.25
Exactly 3.25 does not pass this V1 rule.
away_starter_xera_not_below_3_25
Dean KremerxERA
Dean Kremer recorded a 4.62 xERA. V1 requires each starter to be below 3.25.
Observed
4.62
V1 requirement
Below 3.25
Exactly 3.25 does not pass this V1 rule.
home_starter_xera_not_below_3_25
Will WarrenK-BB%
Will Warren recorded a 14.9% K-BB%. V1 requires each starter to be above 18.0%.
Observed
14.9%
V1 requirement
Above 18.0%
Exactly 18.0% does not pass this V1 rule.
away_starter_k_minus_bb_not_above_18pct
Dean KremerK-BB%
Dean Kremer recorded a 14.7% K-BB%. V1 requires each starter to be above 18.0%.
Observed
14.7%
V1 requirement
Above 18.0%
Exactly 18.0% does not pass this V1 rule.
home_starter_k_minus_bb_not_above_18pct
Minnesota Twins bullpenBullpen ERA rank
Minnesota Twins bullpen recorded a #26 ERA rank. V1 requires each bullpen to be in the top 10 (#1–#10).
Observed
#26
V1 requirement
Top 10 (#1–#10)
home_bullpen_era_rank_not_top_10

Duel Filter V1 · v1.0.0Evaluated Sep 14, 9:17 AM CDTInputs updated Sep 14, 9:17 AM CDTMLB 823656

Sep 14, 6:45 PM CDTBusch Stadium

Does not match

Away

San Francisco Giants

Landen Rouppprobable

xERA: 3.72
K-BB%: 10.5%
Bullpen: #19

Pitcher stats through 2026-09-14

Home

St. Louis Cardinals

Quinn Mathewsprobable

xERA: 3.54
K-BB%: 10.2%
Bullpen: #24

Pitcher stats through 2026-09-14

Does not match

The evaluation was complete, but one or more immutable V1 thresholds did not pass.

Thresholds not met

Landen RouppxERA
Landen Roupp recorded a 3.72 xERA. V1 requires each starter to be below 3.25.
Observed
3.72
V1 requirement
Below 3.25
Exactly 3.25 does not pass this V1 rule.
away_starter_xera_not_below_3_25
Quinn MathewsxERA
Quinn Mathews recorded a 3.54 xERA. V1 requires each starter to be below 3.25.
Observed
3.54
V1 requirement
Below 3.25
Exactly 3.25 does not pass this V1 rule.
home_starter_xera_not_below_3_25
Landen RouppK-BB%
Landen Roupp recorded a 10.5% K-BB%. V1 requires each starter to be above 18.0%.
Observed
10.5%
V1 requirement
Above 18.0%
Exactly 18.0% does not pass this V1 rule.
away_starter_k_minus_bb_not_above_18pct
Quinn MathewsK-BB%
Quinn Mathews recorded a 10.2% K-BB%. V1 requires each starter to be above 18.0%.
Observed
10.2%
V1 requirement
Above 18.0%
Exactly 18.0% does not pass this V1 rule.
home_starter_k_minus_bb_not_above_18pct
San Francisco Giants bullpenBullpen ERA rank
San Francisco Giants bullpen recorded a #19 ERA rank. V1 requires each bullpen to be in the top 10 (#1–#10).
Observed
#19
V1 requirement
Top 10 (#1–#10)
away_bullpen_era_rank_not_top_10
St. Louis Cardinals bullpenBullpen ERA rank
St. Louis Cardinals bullpen recorded a #24 ERA rank. V1 requires each bullpen to be in the top 10 (#1–#10).
Observed
#24
V1 requirement
Top 10 (#1–#10)
home_bullpen_era_rank_not_top_10

Duel Filter V1 · v1.0.0Evaluated Sep 14, 9:17 AM CDTInputs updated Sep 14, 9:17 AM CDTMLB 823006

Sep 14, 7:40 PM CDTCoors Field

Does not match

Away

San Diego Padres

Casey Mizeprobable

xERA: 3.49
K-BB%: 16.0%
Bullpen: #4

Pitcher stats through 2026-09-14

Home

Colorado Rockies

Tomoyuki Suganoprobable

xERA: 6.70
K-BB%: 8.6%
Bullpen: #27

Pitcher stats through 2026-09-14

Does not match

The evaluation was complete, but one or more immutable V1 thresholds did not pass.

Thresholds not met

Casey MizexERA
Casey Mize recorded a 3.49 xERA. V1 requires each starter to be below 3.25.
Observed
3.49
V1 requirement
Below 3.25
Exactly 3.25 does not pass this V1 rule.
away_starter_xera_not_below_3_25
Tomoyuki SuganoxERA
Tomoyuki Sugano recorded a 6.70 xERA. V1 requires each starter to be below 3.25.
Observed
6.70
V1 requirement
Below 3.25
Exactly 3.25 does not pass this V1 rule.
home_starter_xera_not_below_3_25
Casey MizeK-BB%
Casey Mize recorded a 16.0% K-BB%. V1 requires each starter to be above 18.0%.
Observed
16.0%
V1 requirement
Above 18.0%
Exactly 18.0% does not pass this V1 rule.
away_starter_k_minus_bb_not_above_18pct
Tomoyuki SuganoK-BB%
Tomoyuki Sugano recorded a 8.6% K-BB%. V1 requires each starter to be above 18.0%.
Observed
8.6%
V1 requirement
Above 18.0%
Exactly 18.0% does not pass this V1 rule.
home_starter_k_minus_bb_not_above_18pct
Colorado Rockies bullpenBullpen ERA rank
Colorado Rockies bullpen recorded a #27 ERA rank. V1 requires each bullpen to be in the top 10 (#1–#10).
Observed
#27
V1 requirement
Top 10 (#1–#10)
home_bullpen_era_rank_not_top_10

Duel Filter V1 · v1.0.0Evaluated Sep 14, 9:17 AM CDTInputs updated Sep 14, 9:17 AM CDTMLB 824308

Sep 14, 8:38 PM CDTAngel Stadium

Does not match

Away

Seattle Mariners

Kade Andersonprobable

xERA: 4.02
K-BB%: 9.2%
Bullpen: #23

Pitcher stats through 2026-09-14

Home

Los Angeles Angels

Reid Detmersprobable

xERA: 3.19
K-BB%: 21.7%
Bullpen: #21

Pitcher stats through 2026-09-14

Does not match

The evaluation was complete, but one or more immutable V1 thresholds did not pass.

Thresholds not met

Kade AndersonxERA
Kade Anderson recorded a 4.02 xERA. V1 requires each starter to be below 3.25.
Observed
4.02
V1 requirement
Below 3.25
Exactly 3.25 does not pass this V1 rule.
away_starter_xera_not_below_3_25
Kade AndersonK-BB%
Kade Anderson recorded a 9.2% K-BB%. V1 requires each starter to be above 18.0%.
Observed
9.2%
V1 requirement
Above 18.0%
Exactly 18.0% does not pass this V1 rule.
away_starter_k_minus_bb_not_above_18pct
Seattle Mariners bullpenBullpen ERA rank
Seattle Mariners bullpen recorded a #23 ERA rank. V1 requires each bullpen to be in the top 10 (#1–#10).
Observed
#23
V1 requirement
Top 10 (#1–#10)
away_bullpen_era_rank_not_top_10
Los Angeles Angels bullpenBullpen ERA rank
Los Angeles Angels bullpen recorded a #21 ERA rank. V1 requires each bullpen to be in the top 10 (#1–#10).
Observed
#21
V1 requirement
Top 10 (#1–#10)
home_bullpen_era_rank_not_top_10

Duel Filter V1 · v1.0.0Evaluated Sep 14, 9:17 AM CDTInputs updated Sep 14, 9:17 AM CDTMLB 823981

Sep 14, 8:40 PM CDTChase Field

Does not match

Away

Miami Marlins

Sandy Alcantaraprobable

xERA: 3.91
K-BB%: 10.6%
Bullpen: #15

Pitcher stats through 2026-09-14

Home

Arizona Diamondbacks

Corbin Burnesprobable

xERA: 4.40
K-BB%: 0.0%
Bullpen: #13

Pitcher stats through 2026-09-14

Does not match

The evaluation was complete, but one or more immutable V1 thresholds did not pass.

Thresholds not met

Sandy AlcantaraxERA
Sandy Alcantara recorded a 3.91 xERA. V1 requires each starter to be below 3.25.
Observed
3.91
V1 requirement
Below 3.25
Exactly 3.25 does not pass this V1 rule.
away_starter_xera_not_below_3_25
Corbin BurnesxERA
Corbin Burnes recorded a 4.40 xERA. V1 requires each starter to be below 3.25.
Observed
4.40
V1 requirement
Below 3.25
Exactly 3.25 does not pass this V1 rule.
home_starter_xera_not_below_3_25
Sandy AlcantaraK-BB%
Sandy Alcantara recorded a 10.6% K-BB%. V1 requires each starter to be above 18.0%.
Observed
10.6%
V1 requirement
Above 18.0%
Exactly 18.0% does not pass this V1 rule.
away_starter_k_minus_bb_not_above_18pct
Corbin BurnesK-BB%
Corbin Burnes recorded a 0.0% K-BB%. V1 requires each starter to be above 18.0%.
Observed
0.0%
V1 requirement
Above 18.0%
Exactly 18.0% does not pass this V1 rule.
home_starter_k_minus_bb_not_above_18pct
Miami Marlins bullpenBullpen ERA rank
Miami Marlins bullpen recorded a #15 ERA rank. V1 requires each bullpen to be in the top 10 (#1–#10).
Observed
#15
V1 requirement
Top 10 (#1–#10)
away_bullpen_era_rank_not_top_10
Arizona Diamondbacks bullpenBullpen ERA rank
Arizona Diamondbacks bullpen recorded a #13 ERA rank. V1 requires each bullpen to be in the top 10 (#1–#10).
Observed
#13
V1 requirement
Top 10 (#1–#10)
home_bullpen_era_rank_not_top_10

Duel Filter V1 · v1.0.0Evaluated Sep 14, 9:17 AM CDTInputs updated Sep 14, 9:17 AM CDTMLB 825034