The Ace Suppressor
← Daily slate
Daily Research Board →Forward Validation →

Duel Filter V1 · Daily research cohort

Suppression Candidates

The original pitcher-duel hypothesis, evaluated with immutable point-in-time starter and bullpen snapshots.

Research benchmark only · A cohort match is not a betting recommendation
Evaluated5
V1 matches0
Rejected5
Incomplete0

Point-in-time audit

Daily evaluations

Private source connected
Sep 10, 11:15 AM CDTTruist Park
Does not match

Away

Tampa Bay Rays

Nick Martinezprobable

xERA
4.21
K-BB%
11.0%
Bullpen
#17

Pitcher stats through 2026-09-10

at

Home

Atlanta Braves

Martín Pérezprobable

xERA
4.76
K-BB%
7.7%
Bullpen
#3

Pitcher stats through 2026-09-10

Does not match

The evaluation was complete, but one or more immutable V1 thresholds did not pass.

Thresholds not met

  • Nick MartinezxERA

    Nick Martinez recorded a 4.21 xERA. V1 requires each starter to be below 3.25.

    Observed
    4.21
    V1 requirement
    Below 3.25

    Exactly 3.25 does not pass this V1 rule.

    away_starter_xera_not_below_3_25

  • Martín PérezxERA

    Martín Pérez recorded a 4.76 xERA. V1 requires each starter to be below 3.25.

    Observed
    4.76
    V1 requirement
    Below 3.25

    Exactly 3.25 does not pass this V1 rule.

    home_starter_xera_not_below_3_25

  • Nick MartinezK-BB%

    Nick Martinez recorded a 11.0% K-BB%. V1 requires each starter to be above 18.0%.

    Observed
    11.0%
    V1 requirement
    Above 18.0%

    Exactly 18.0% does not pass this V1 rule.

    away_starter_k_minus_bb_not_above_18pct

  • Martín PérezK-BB%

    Martín Pérez recorded a 7.7% K-BB%. V1 requires each starter to be above 18.0%.

    Observed
    7.7%
    V1 requirement
    Above 18.0%

    Exactly 18.0% does not pass this V1 rule.

    home_starter_k_minus_bb_not_above_18pct

  • Tampa Bay Rays bullpenBullpen ERA rank

    Tampa Bay Rays bullpen recorded a #17 ERA rank. V1 requires each bullpen to be in the top 10 (#1–#10).

    Observed
    #17
    V1 requirement
    Top 10 (#1–#10)

    away_bullpen_era_rank_not_top_10

Duel Filter V1 · v1.0.0Evaluated Sep 10, 9:17 AM CDTInputs updated Sep 10, 9:17 AM CDTMLB 824872
Sep 10, 12:05 PM CDTCitizens Bank Park
Does not match

Away

Houston Astros

Cristian Javierprobable

xERA
4.96
K-BB%
12.6%
Bullpen
#18

Pitcher stats through 2026-09-10

at

Home

Philadelphia Phillies

Zack Wheelerprobable

xERA
3.04
K-BB%
21.9%
Bullpen
#19

Pitcher stats through 2026-09-10

Does not match

The evaluation was complete, but one or more immutable V1 thresholds did not pass.

Thresholds not met

  • Cristian JavierxERA

    Cristian Javier recorded a 4.96 xERA. V1 requires each starter to be below 3.25.

    Observed
    4.96
    V1 requirement
    Below 3.25

    Exactly 3.25 does not pass this V1 rule.

    away_starter_xera_not_below_3_25

  • Cristian JavierK-BB%

    Cristian Javier recorded a 12.6% K-BB%. V1 requires each starter to be above 18.0%.

    Observed
    12.6%
    V1 requirement
    Above 18.0%

    Exactly 18.0% does not pass this V1 rule.

    away_starter_k_minus_bb_not_above_18pct

  • Houston Astros bullpenBullpen ERA rank

    Houston Astros bullpen recorded a #18 ERA rank. V1 requires each bullpen to be in the top 10 (#1–#10).

    Observed
    #18
    V1 requirement
    Top 10 (#1–#10)

    away_bullpen_era_rank_not_top_10

  • Philadelphia Phillies bullpenBullpen ERA rank

    Philadelphia Phillies bullpen recorded a #19 ERA rank. V1 requires each bullpen to be in the top 10 (#1–#10).

    Observed
    #19
    V1 requirement
    Top 10 (#1–#10)

    home_bullpen_era_rank_not_top_10

Duel Filter V1 · v1.0.0Evaluated Sep 10, 9:17 AM CDTInputs updated Sep 10, 9:17 AM CDTMLB 823413
Sep 10, 3:10 PM CDTT-Mobile Park
Does not match

Away

Texas Rangers

Jacob deGromprobable

xERA
3.55
K-BB%
23.4%
Bullpen
#22

Pitcher stats through 2026-09-10

at

Home

Seattle Mariners

Logan Gilbertprobable

xERA
3.74
K-BB%
20.3%
Bullpen
#23

Pitcher stats through 2026-09-10

Does not match

The evaluation was complete, but one or more immutable V1 thresholds did not pass.

Thresholds not met

  • Jacob deGromxERA

    Jacob deGrom recorded a 3.55 xERA. V1 requires each starter to be below 3.25.

    Observed
    3.55
    V1 requirement
    Below 3.25

    Exactly 3.25 does not pass this V1 rule.

    away_starter_xera_not_below_3_25

  • Logan GilbertxERA

    Logan Gilbert recorded a 3.74 xERA. V1 requires each starter to be below 3.25.

    Observed
    3.74
    V1 requirement
    Below 3.25

    Exactly 3.25 does not pass this V1 rule.

    home_starter_xera_not_below_3_25

  • Texas Rangers bullpenBullpen ERA rank

    Texas Rangers bullpen recorded a #22 ERA rank. V1 requires each bullpen to be in the top 10 (#1–#10).

    Observed
    #22
    V1 requirement
    Top 10 (#1–#10)

    away_bullpen_era_rank_not_top_10

  • Seattle Mariners bullpenBullpen ERA rank

    Seattle Mariners bullpen recorded a #23 ERA rank. V1 requires each bullpen to be in the top 10 (#1–#10).

    Observed
    #23
    V1 requirement
    Top 10 (#1–#10)

    home_bullpen_era_rank_not_top_10

Duel Filter V1 · v1.0.0Evaluated Sep 10, 9:17 AM CDTInputs updated Sep 10, 9:17 AM CDTMLB 823088
Sep 10, 6:05 PM CDTYankee Stadium
Does not match

Away

Colorado Rockies

Ryan Feltnerprobable

xERA
5.23
K-BB%
6.9%
Bullpen
#26

Pitcher stats through 2026-09-10

at

Home

New York Yankees

Max Friedprobable

xERA
2.54
K-BB%
15.8%
Bullpen
#1

Pitcher stats through 2026-09-10

Does not match

The evaluation was complete, but one or more immutable V1 thresholds did not pass.

Thresholds not met

  • Ryan FeltnerxERA

    Ryan Feltner recorded a 5.23 xERA. V1 requires each starter to be below 3.25.

    Observed
    5.23
    V1 requirement
    Below 3.25

    Exactly 3.25 does not pass this V1 rule.

    away_starter_xera_not_below_3_25

  • Ryan FeltnerK-BB%

    Ryan Feltner recorded a 6.9% K-BB%. V1 requires each starter to be above 18.0%.

    Observed
    6.9%
    V1 requirement
    Above 18.0%

    Exactly 18.0% does not pass this V1 rule.

    away_starter_k_minus_bb_not_above_18pct

  • Max FriedK-BB%

    Max Fried recorded a 15.8% K-BB%. V1 requires each starter to be above 18.0%.

    Observed
    15.8%
    V1 requirement
    Above 18.0%

    Exactly 18.0% does not pass this V1 rule.

    home_starter_k_minus_bb_not_above_18pct

  • Colorado Rockies bullpenBullpen ERA rank

    Colorado Rockies bullpen recorded a #26 ERA rank. V1 requires each bullpen to be in the top 10 (#1–#10).

    Observed
    #26
    V1 requirement
    Top 10 (#1–#10)

    away_bullpen_era_rank_not_top_10

Duel Filter V1 · v1.0.0Evaluated Sep 10, 9:17 AM CDTInputs updated Sep 10, 9:17 AM CDTMLB 823499
Sep 10, 6:40 PM CDTRate Field
Does not match

Away

Pittsburgh Pirates

Jared Jonesprobable

xERA
3.63
K-BB%
19.2%
Bullpen
#15

Pitcher stats through 2026-09-10

at

Home

Chicago White Sox

Hagen Smithprobable

xERA
2.88
K-BB%
21.0%
Bullpen
#7

Pitcher stats through 2026-09-10

Does not match

The evaluation was complete, but one or more immutable V1 thresholds did not pass.

Thresholds not met

  • Jared JonesxERA

    Jared Jones recorded a 3.63 xERA. V1 requires each starter to be below 3.25.

    Observed
    3.63
    V1 requirement
    Below 3.25

    Exactly 3.25 does not pass this V1 rule.

    away_starter_xera_not_below_3_25

  • Pittsburgh Pirates bullpenBullpen ERA rank

    Pittsburgh Pirates bullpen recorded a #15 ERA rank. V1 requires each bullpen to be in the top 10 (#1–#10).

    Observed
    #15
    V1 requirement
    Top 10 (#1–#10)

    away_bullpen_era_rank_not_top_10

Duel Filter V1 · v1.0.0Evaluated Sep 10, 9:17 AM CDTInputs updated Sep 10, 9:17 AM CDTMLB 824550