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Duel Filter V1 · Daily research cohort

Suppression Candidates

The original pitcher-duel hypothesis, evaluated with immutable point-in-time starter and bullpen snapshots.

Research benchmark only · A cohort match is not a betting recommendation

Evaluated9

V1 matches0

Rejected9

Incomplete0

Point-in-time audit

Daily evaluations

Private source connected

Sep 3, 11:35 AM CDTPNC Park

Does not match

Away

San Francisco Giants

Blade Tidwellprobable

xERA: 3.65
K-BB%: 11.7%
Bullpen: #20

Pitcher stats through 2026-09-03

Home

Pittsburgh Pirates

Lake Bacharprobable

xERA: 3.52
K-BB%: 15.3%
Bullpen: #18

Pitcher stats through 2026-09-03

Does not match

The evaluation was complete, but one or more immutable V1 thresholds did not pass.

Thresholds not met

Blade TidwellxERA
Blade Tidwell recorded a 3.65 xERA. V1 requires each starter to be below 3.25.
Observed
3.65
V1 requirement
Below 3.25
Exactly 3.25 does not pass this V1 rule.
away_starter_xera_not_below_3_25
Lake BacharxERA
Lake Bachar recorded a 3.52 xERA. V1 requires each starter to be below 3.25.
Observed
3.52
V1 requirement
Below 3.25
Exactly 3.25 does not pass this V1 rule.
home_starter_xera_not_below_3_25
Blade TidwellK-BB%
Blade Tidwell recorded a 11.7% K-BB%. V1 requires each starter to be above 18.0%.
Observed
11.7%
V1 requirement
Above 18.0%
Exactly 18.0% does not pass this V1 rule.
away_starter_k_minus_bb_not_above_18pct
Lake BacharK-BB%
Lake Bachar recorded a 15.3% K-BB%. V1 requires each starter to be above 18.0%.
Observed
15.3%
V1 requirement
Above 18.0%
Exactly 18.0% does not pass this V1 rule.
home_starter_k_minus_bb_not_above_18pct
San Francisco Giants bullpenBullpen ERA rank
San Francisco Giants bullpen recorded a #20 ERA rank. V1 requires each bullpen to be in the top 10 (#1–#10).
Observed
#20
V1 requirement
Top 10 (#1–#10)
away_bullpen_era_rank_not_top_10
Pittsburgh Pirates bullpenBullpen ERA rank
Pittsburgh Pirates bullpen recorded a #18 ERA rank. V1 requires each bullpen to be in the top 10 (#1–#10).
Observed
#18
V1 requirement
Top 10 (#1–#10)
home_bullpen_era_rank_not_top_10

Duel Filter V1 · v1.0.0Evaluated Sep 3, 9:17 AM CDTInputs updated Sep 3, 9:17 AM CDTMLB 823337

Sep 3, 12:10 PM CDTProgressive Field

Does not match

Away

Toronto Blue Jays

José Sorianoprobable

xERA: 4.48
K-BB%: 13.0%
Bullpen: #9

Pitcher stats through 2026-09-03

Home

Cleveland Guardians

Tanner Bibeeprobable

xERA: 4.30
K-BB%: 12.3%
Bullpen: #8

Pitcher stats through 2026-09-03

Does not match

The evaluation was complete, but one or more immutable V1 thresholds did not pass.

Thresholds not met

José SorianoxERA
José Soriano recorded a 4.48 xERA. V1 requires each starter to be below 3.25.
Observed
4.48
V1 requirement
Below 3.25
Exactly 3.25 does not pass this V1 rule.
away_starter_xera_not_below_3_25
Tanner BibeexERA
Tanner Bibee recorded a 4.30 xERA. V1 requires each starter to be below 3.25.
Observed
4.30
V1 requirement
Below 3.25
Exactly 3.25 does not pass this V1 rule.
home_starter_xera_not_below_3_25
José SorianoK-BB%
José Soriano recorded a 13.0% K-BB%. V1 requires each starter to be above 18.0%.
Observed
13.0%
V1 requirement
Above 18.0%
Exactly 18.0% does not pass this V1 rule.
away_starter_k_minus_bb_not_above_18pct
Tanner BibeeK-BB%
Tanner Bibee recorded a 12.3% K-BB%. V1 requires each starter to be above 18.0%.
Observed
12.3%
V1 requirement
Above 18.0%
Exactly 18.0% does not pass this V1 rule.
home_starter_k_minus_bb_not_above_18pct

Duel Filter V1 · v1.0.0Evaluated Sep 3, 9:17 AM CDTInputs updated Sep 3, 9:17 AM CDTMLB 824388

Sep 3, 1:10 PM CDTDaikin Park

Does not match

Away

Chicago White Sox

Luis Castilloprobable

xERA: 4.99
K-BB%: 12.5%
Bullpen: #7

Pitcher stats through 2026-09-03

Home

Houston Astros

Hunter Brownprobable

xERA: 3.58
K-BB%: 12.4%
Bullpen: #16

Pitcher stats through 2026-09-03

Does not match

The evaluation was complete, but one or more immutable V1 thresholds did not pass.

Thresholds not met

Luis CastilloxERA
Luis Castillo recorded a 4.99 xERA. V1 requires each starter to be below 3.25.
Observed
4.99
V1 requirement
Below 3.25
Exactly 3.25 does not pass this V1 rule.
away_starter_xera_not_below_3_25
Hunter BrownxERA
Hunter Brown recorded a 3.58 xERA. V1 requires each starter to be below 3.25.
Observed
3.58
V1 requirement
Below 3.25
Exactly 3.25 does not pass this V1 rule.
home_starter_xera_not_below_3_25
Luis CastilloK-BB%
Luis Castillo recorded a 12.5% K-BB%. V1 requires each starter to be above 18.0%.
Observed
12.5%
V1 requirement
Above 18.0%
Exactly 18.0% does not pass this V1 rule.
away_starter_k_minus_bb_not_above_18pct
Hunter BrownK-BB%
Hunter Brown recorded a 12.4% K-BB%. V1 requires each starter to be above 18.0%.
Observed
12.4%
V1 requirement
Above 18.0%
Exactly 18.0% does not pass this V1 rule.
home_starter_k_minus_bb_not_above_18pct
Houston Astros bullpenBullpen ERA rank
Houston Astros bullpen recorded a #16 ERA rank. V1 requires each bullpen to be in the top 10 (#1–#10).
Observed
#16
V1 requirement
Top 10 (#1–#10)
home_bullpen_era_rank_not_top_10

Duel Filter V1 · v1.0.0Evaluated Sep 3, 9:17 AM CDTInputs updated Sep 3, 9:17 AM CDTMLB 824144

Sep 3, 6:15 PM CDTOriole Park at Camden Yards

Does not match

Away

Boston Red Sox

Jake Bennettprobable

xERA: 3.18
K-BB%: 15.0%
Bullpen: #2

Pitcher stats through 2026-09-03

Home

Baltimore Orioles

Brandon Youngprobable

xERA: 4.36
K-BB%: 10.3%
Bullpen: #10

Pitcher stats through 2026-09-03

Does not match

The evaluation was complete, but one or more immutable V1 thresholds did not pass.

Thresholds not met

Brandon YoungxERA
Brandon Young recorded a 4.36 xERA. V1 requires each starter to be below 3.25.
Observed
4.36
V1 requirement
Below 3.25
Exactly 3.25 does not pass this V1 rule.
home_starter_xera_not_below_3_25
Jake BennettK-BB%
Jake Bennett recorded a 15.0% K-BB%. V1 requires each starter to be above 18.0%.
Observed
15.0%
V1 requirement
Above 18.0%
Exactly 18.0% does not pass this V1 rule.
away_starter_k_minus_bb_not_above_18pct
Brandon YoungK-BB%
Brandon Young recorded a 10.3% K-BB%. V1 requires each starter to be above 18.0%.
Observed
10.3%
V1 requirement
Above 18.0%
Exactly 18.0% does not pass this V1 rule.
home_starter_k_minus_bb_not_above_18pct

Duel Filter V1 · v1.0.0Evaluated Sep 3, 9:17 AM CDTInputs updated Sep 3, 9:17 AM CDTMLB 824796

Sep 3, 6:15 PM CDTWrigley Field

Does not match

Away

Milwaukee Brewers

Logan Hendersonprobable

xERA: 2.73
K-BB%: 25.2%
Bullpen: #3

Pitcher stats through 2026-09-03

Home

Chicago Cubs

Kevin Gausmanprobable

xERA: 3.92
K-BB%: 17.2%
Bullpen: #13

Pitcher stats through 2026-09-03

Does not match

The evaluation was complete, but one or more immutable V1 thresholds did not pass.

Thresholds not met

Kevin GausmanxERA
Kevin Gausman recorded a 3.92 xERA. V1 requires each starter to be below 3.25.
Observed
3.92
V1 requirement
Below 3.25
Exactly 3.25 does not pass this V1 rule.
home_starter_xera_not_below_3_25
Kevin GausmanK-BB%
Kevin Gausman recorded a 17.2% K-BB%. V1 requires each starter to be above 18.0%.
Observed
17.2%
V1 requirement
Above 18.0%
Exactly 18.0% does not pass this V1 rule.
home_starter_k_minus_bb_not_above_18pct
Chicago Cubs bullpenBullpen ERA rank
Chicago Cubs bullpen recorded a #13 ERA rank. V1 requires each bullpen to be in the top 10 (#1–#10).
Observed
#13
V1 requirement
Top 10 (#1–#10)
home_bullpen_era_rank_not_top_10

Duel Filter V1 · v1.0.0Evaluated Sep 3, 9:17 AM CDTInputs updated Sep 3, 9:17 AM CDTMLB 824632

Sep 3, 6:40 PM CDTKauffman Stadium

Does not match

Away

Miami Marlins

Sandy Alcantaraprobable

xERA: 3.63
K-BB%: 11.5%
Bullpen: #12

Pitcher stats through 2026-09-03

Home

Kansas City Royals

Michael Wachaprobable

xERA: 3.98
K-BB%: 13.7%
Bullpen: #29

Pitcher stats through 2026-09-03

Does not match

The evaluation was complete, but one or more immutable V1 thresholds did not pass.

Thresholds not met

Sandy AlcantaraxERA
Sandy Alcantara recorded a 3.63 xERA. V1 requires each starter to be below 3.25.
Observed
3.63
V1 requirement
Below 3.25
Exactly 3.25 does not pass this V1 rule.
away_starter_xera_not_below_3_25
Michael WachaxERA
Michael Wacha recorded a 3.98 xERA. V1 requires each starter to be below 3.25.
Observed
3.98
V1 requirement
Below 3.25
Exactly 3.25 does not pass this V1 rule.
home_starter_xera_not_below_3_25
Sandy AlcantaraK-BB%
Sandy Alcantara recorded a 11.5% K-BB%. V1 requires each starter to be above 18.0%.
Observed
11.5%
V1 requirement
Above 18.0%
Exactly 18.0% does not pass this V1 rule.
away_starter_k_minus_bb_not_above_18pct
Michael WachaK-BB%
Michael Wacha recorded a 13.7% K-BB%. V1 requires each starter to be above 18.0%.
Observed
13.7%
V1 requirement
Above 18.0%
Exactly 18.0% does not pass this V1 rule.
home_starter_k_minus_bb_not_above_18pct
Miami Marlins bullpenBullpen ERA rank
Miami Marlins bullpen recorded a #12 ERA rank. V1 requires each bullpen to be in the top 10 (#1–#10).
Observed
#12
V1 requirement
Top 10 (#1–#10)
away_bullpen_era_rank_not_top_10
Kansas City Royals bullpenBullpen ERA rank
Kansas City Royals bullpen recorded a #29 ERA rank. V1 requires each bullpen to be in the top 10 (#1–#10).
Observed
#29
V1 requirement
Top 10 (#1–#10)
home_bullpen_era_rank_not_top_10

Duel Filter V1 · v1.0.0Evaluated Sep 3, 9:17 AM CDTInputs updated Sep 3, 9:17 AM CDTMLB 824069

Sep 3, 7:05 PM CDTGlobe Life Field

Does not match

Away

Tampa Bay Rays

Shane McClanahanprobable

xERA: 4.18
K-BB%: 13.9%
Bullpen: #15

Pitcher stats through 2026-09-03

Home

Texas Rangers

Cal Quantrillprobable

xERA: 4.01
K-BB%: 12.5%
Bullpen: #22

Pitcher stats through 2026-09-03

Does not match

The evaluation was complete, but one or more immutable V1 thresholds did not pass.

Thresholds not met

Shane McClanahanxERA
Shane McClanahan recorded a 4.18 xERA. V1 requires each starter to be below 3.25.
Observed
4.18
V1 requirement
Below 3.25
Exactly 3.25 does not pass this V1 rule.
away_starter_xera_not_below_3_25
Cal QuantrillxERA
Cal Quantrill recorded a 4.01 xERA. V1 requires each starter to be below 3.25.
Observed
4.01
V1 requirement
Below 3.25
Exactly 3.25 does not pass this V1 rule.
home_starter_xera_not_below_3_25
Shane McClanahanK-BB%
Shane McClanahan recorded a 13.9% K-BB%. V1 requires each starter to be above 18.0%.
Observed
13.9%
V1 requirement
Above 18.0%
Exactly 18.0% does not pass this V1 rule.
away_starter_k_minus_bb_not_above_18pct
Cal QuantrillK-BB%
Cal Quantrill recorded a 12.5% K-BB%. V1 requires each starter to be above 18.0%.
Observed
12.5%
V1 requirement
Above 18.0%
Exactly 18.0% does not pass this V1 rule.
home_starter_k_minus_bb_not_above_18pct
Tampa Bay Rays bullpenBullpen ERA rank
Tampa Bay Rays bullpen recorded a #15 ERA rank. V1 requires each bullpen to be in the top 10 (#1–#10).
Observed
#15
V1 requirement
Top 10 (#1–#10)
away_bullpen_era_rank_not_top_10
Texas Rangers bullpenBullpen ERA rank
Texas Rangers bullpen recorded a #22 ERA rank. V1 requires each bullpen to be in the top 10 (#1–#10).
Observed
#22
V1 requirement
Top 10 (#1–#10)
home_bullpen_era_rank_not_top_10

Duel Filter V1 · v1.0.0Evaluated Sep 3, 9:17 AM CDTInputs updated Sep 3, 9:17 AM CDTMLB 822853

Sep 3, 8:40 PM CDTT-Mobile Park

Does not match

Away

Athletics

Jack Perkinsprobable

xERA: 4.01
K-BB%: 15.5%
Bullpen: #30

Pitcher stats through 2026-09-03

Home

Seattle Mariners

Kade Andersonprobable

xERA: 2.28
K-BB%: 7.3%
Bullpen: #24

Pitcher stats through 2026-09-03

Does not match

The evaluation was complete, but one or more immutable V1 thresholds did not pass.

Thresholds not met

Jack PerkinsxERA
Jack Perkins recorded a 4.01 xERA. V1 requires each starter to be below 3.25.
Observed
4.01
V1 requirement
Below 3.25
Exactly 3.25 does not pass this V1 rule.
away_starter_xera_not_below_3_25
Jack PerkinsK-BB%
Jack Perkins recorded a 15.5% K-BB%. V1 requires each starter to be above 18.0%.
Observed
15.5%
V1 requirement
Above 18.0%
Exactly 18.0% does not pass this V1 rule.
away_starter_k_minus_bb_not_above_18pct
Kade AndersonK-BB%
Kade Anderson recorded a 7.3% K-BB%. V1 requires each starter to be above 18.0%.
Observed
7.3%
V1 requirement
Above 18.0%
Exactly 18.0% does not pass this V1 rule.
home_starter_k_minus_bb_not_above_18pct
Athletics bullpenBullpen ERA rank
Athletics bullpen recorded a #30 ERA rank. V1 requires each bullpen to be in the top 10 (#1–#10).
Observed
#30
V1 requirement
Top 10 (#1–#10)
away_bullpen_era_rank_not_top_10
Seattle Mariners bullpenBullpen ERA rank
Seattle Mariners bullpen recorded a #24 ERA rank. V1 requires each bullpen to be in the top 10 (#1–#10).
Observed
#24
V1 requirement
Top 10 (#1–#10)
home_bullpen_era_rank_not_top_10

Duel Filter V1 · v1.0.0Evaluated Sep 3, 9:17 AM CDTInputs updated Sep 3, 9:17 AM CDTMLB 823095

Sep 3, 9:10 PM CDTUNIQLO Field at Dodger Stadium

Does not match

Away

St. Louis Cardinals

Quinn Mathewsprobable

xERA: 3.32
K-BB%: 13.5%
Bullpen: #23

Pitcher stats through 2026-09-03

Home

Los Angeles Dodgers

Tarik Skubalprobable

xERA: 2.95
K-BB%: 26.7%
Bullpen: #11

Pitcher stats through 2026-09-03

Does not match

The evaluation was complete, but one or more immutable V1 thresholds did not pass.

Thresholds not met

Quinn MathewsxERA
Quinn Mathews recorded a 3.32 xERA. V1 requires each starter to be below 3.25.
Observed
3.32
V1 requirement
Below 3.25
Exactly 3.25 does not pass this V1 rule.
away_starter_xera_not_below_3_25
Quinn MathewsK-BB%
Quinn Mathews recorded a 13.5% K-BB%. V1 requires each starter to be above 18.0%.
Observed
13.5%
V1 requirement
Above 18.0%
Exactly 18.0% does not pass this V1 rule.
away_starter_k_minus_bb_not_above_18pct
St. Louis Cardinals bullpenBullpen ERA rank
St. Louis Cardinals bullpen recorded a #23 ERA rank. V1 requires each bullpen to be in the top 10 (#1–#10).
Observed
#23
V1 requirement
Top 10 (#1–#10)
away_bullpen_era_rank_not_top_10
Los Angeles Dodgers bullpenBullpen ERA rank
Los Angeles Dodgers bullpen recorded a #11 ERA rank. V1 requires each bullpen to be in the top 10 (#1–#10).
Observed
#11
V1 requirement
Top 10 (#1–#10)
home_bullpen_era_rank_not_top_10

Duel Filter V1 · v1.0.0Evaluated Sep 3, 9:17 AM CDTInputs updated Sep 3, 9:17 AM CDTMLB 823907