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Duel Filter V1 · Daily research cohort

Suppression Candidates

The original pitcher-duel hypothesis, evaluated with immutable point-in-time starter and bullpen snapshots.

Research benchmark only · A cohort match is not a betting recommendation

Evaluated12

V1 matches0

Rejected10

Incomplete2

Point-in-time audit

Daily evaluations

Private source connected

Aug 31, 5:05 PM CDTTruist Park

Does not match

Away

San Francisco Giants

Anthony Molinaprobable

xERA: 5.45
K-BB%: 2.9%
Bullpen: #20

Pitcher stats through 2026-08-31

Home

Atlanta Braves

Bryce Elderprobable

xERA: 3.99
K-BB%: 11.9%
Bullpen: #4

Pitcher stats through 2026-08-31

Does not match

The evaluation was complete, but one or more immutable V1 thresholds did not pass.

Thresholds not met

Anthony MolinaxERA
Anthony Molina recorded a 5.45 xERA. V1 requires each starter to be below 3.25.
Observed
5.45
V1 requirement
Below 3.25
Exactly 3.25 does not pass this V1 rule.
away_starter_xera_not_below_3_25
Bryce ElderxERA
Bryce Elder recorded a 3.99 xERA. V1 requires each starter to be below 3.25.
Observed
3.99
V1 requirement
Below 3.25
Exactly 3.25 does not pass this V1 rule.
home_starter_xera_not_below_3_25
Anthony MolinaK-BB%
Anthony Molina recorded a 2.9% K-BB%. V1 requires each starter to be above 18.0%.
Observed
2.9%
V1 requirement
Above 18.0%
Exactly 18.0% does not pass this V1 rule.
away_starter_k_minus_bb_not_above_18pct
Bryce ElderK-BB%
Bryce Elder recorded a 11.9% K-BB%. V1 requires each starter to be above 18.0%.
Observed
11.9%
V1 requirement
Above 18.0%
Exactly 18.0% does not pass this V1 rule.
home_starter_k_minus_bb_not_above_18pct
San Francisco Giants bullpenBullpen ERA rank
San Francisco Giants bullpen recorded a #20 ERA rank. V1 requires each bullpen to be in the top 10 (#1–#10).
Observed
#20
V1 requirement
Top 10 (#1–#10)
away_bullpen_era_rank_not_top_10

Duel Filter V1 · v1.0.0Evaluated Aug 31, 9:17 AM CDTInputs updated Aug 31, 9:17 AM CDTMLB 824911

Aug 31, 5:40 PM CDTGreat American Ball Park

Does not match

Away

San Diego Padres

Michael Kingprobable

xERA: 4.28
K-BB%: 11.8%
Bullpen: #5

Pitcher stats through 2026-08-31

Home

Cincinnati Reds

Brady Singerprobable

xERA: 5.10
K-BB%: 11.0%
Bullpen: #25

Pitcher stats through 2026-08-31

Does not match

The evaluation was complete, but one or more immutable V1 thresholds did not pass.

Thresholds not met

Michael KingxERA
Michael King recorded a 4.28 xERA. V1 requires each starter to be below 3.25.
Observed
4.28
V1 requirement
Below 3.25
Exactly 3.25 does not pass this V1 rule.
away_starter_xera_not_below_3_25
Brady SingerxERA
Brady Singer recorded a 5.10 xERA. V1 requires each starter to be below 3.25.
Observed
5.10
V1 requirement
Below 3.25
Exactly 3.25 does not pass this V1 rule.
home_starter_xera_not_below_3_25
Michael KingK-BB%
Michael King recorded a 11.8% K-BB%. V1 requires each starter to be above 18.0%.
Observed
11.8%
V1 requirement
Above 18.0%
Exactly 18.0% does not pass this V1 rule.
away_starter_k_minus_bb_not_above_18pct
Brady SingerK-BB%
Brady Singer recorded a 11.0% K-BB%. V1 requires each starter to be above 18.0%.
Observed
11.0%
V1 requirement
Above 18.0%
Exactly 18.0% does not pass this V1 rule.
home_starter_k_minus_bb_not_above_18pct
Cincinnati Reds bullpenBullpen ERA rank
Cincinnati Reds bullpen recorded a #25 ERA rank. V1 requires each bullpen to be in the top 10 (#1–#10).
Observed
#25
V1 requirement
Top 10 (#1–#10)
home_bullpen_era_rank_not_top_10

Duel Filter V1 · v1.0.0Evaluated Aug 31, 9:17 AM CDTInputs updated Aug 31, 9:17 AM CDTMLB 824473

Aug 31, 5:40 PM CDTTropicana Field

Does not match

Away

New York Mets

Robert Stockprobable

xERA: 4.90
K-BB%: 7.7%
Bullpen: #6

Pitcher stats through 2026-08-31

Home

Tampa Bay Rays

Ian Seymourprobable

xERA: 3.59
K-BB%: 21.5%
Bullpen: #16

Pitcher stats through 2026-08-31

Does not match

The evaluation was complete, but one or more immutable V1 thresholds did not pass.

Thresholds not met

Robert StockxERA
Robert Stock recorded a 4.90 xERA. V1 requires each starter to be below 3.25.
Observed
4.90
V1 requirement
Below 3.25
Exactly 3.25 does not pass this V1 rule.
away_starter_xera_not_below_3_25
Ian SeymourxERA
Ian Seymour recorded a 3.59 xERA. V1 requires each starter to be below 3.25.
Observed
3.59
V1 requirement
Below 3.25
Exactly 3.25 does not pass this V1 rule.
home_starter_xera_not_below_3_25
Robert StockK-BB%
Robert Stock recorded a 7.7% K-BB%. V1 requires each starter to be above 18.0%.
Observed
7.7%
V1 requirement
Above 18.0%
Exactly 18.0% does not pass this V1 rule.
away_starter_k_minus_bb_not_above_18pct
Tampa Bay Rays bullpenBullpen ERA rank
Tampa Bay Rays bullpen recorded a #16 ERA rank. V1 requires each bullpen to be in the top 10 (#1–#10).
Observed
#16
V1 requirement
Top 10 (#1–#10)
home_bullpen_era_rank_not_top_10

Duel Filter V1 · v1.0.0Evaluated Aug 31, 9:17 AM CDTInputs updated Aug 31, 9:17 AM CDTMLB 822932

Aug 31, 5:45 PM CDTFenway Park

Does not match

Away

Seattle Mariners

George Kirbyprobable

xERA: 3.88
K-BB%: 14.9%
Bullpen: #23

Pitcher stats through 2026-08-31

Home

Boston Red Sox

Payton Tolleprobable

xERA: 2.69
K-BB%: 21.0%
Bullpen: #2

Pitcher stats through 2026-08-31

Does not match

The evaluation was complete, but one or more immutable V1 thresholds did not pass.

Thresholds not met

George KirbyxERA
George Kirby recorded a 3.88 xERA. V1 requires each starter to be below 3.25.
Observed
3.88
V1 requirement
Below 3.25
Exactly 3.25 does not pass this V1 rule.
away_starter_xera_not_below_3_25
George KirbyK-BB%
George Kirby recorded a 14.9% K-BB%. V1 requires each starter to be above 18.0%.
Observed
14.9%
V1 requirement
Above 18.0%
Exactly 18.0% does not pass this V1 rule.
away_starter_k_minus_bb_not_above_18pct
Seattle Mariners bullpenBullpen ERA rank
Seattle Mariners bullpen recorded a #23 ERA rank. V1 requires each bullpen to be in the top 10 (#1–#10).
Observed
#23
V1 requirement
Top 10 (#1–#10)
away_bullpen_era_rank_not_top_10

Duel Filter V1 · v1.0.0Evaluated Aug 31, 9:17 AM CDTInputs updated Aug 31, 9:17 AM CDTMLB 824719

Aug 31, 5:45 PM CDTNationals Park

Does not match

Away

Miami Marlins

Ryan Gustoprobable

xERA: 4.49
K-BB%: 12.5%
Bullpen: #14

Pitcher stats through 2026-08-31

Home

Washington Nationals

Will Dionprobable

xERA: 3.14
K-BB%: 23.0%
Bullpen: #28

Pitcher stats through 2026-08-31

Does not match

The evaluation was complete, but one or more immutable V1 thresholds did not pass.

Thresholds not met

Ryan GustoxERA
Ryan Gusto recorded a 4.49 xERA. V1 requires each starter to be below 3.25.
Observed
4.49
V1 requirement
Below 3.25
Exactly 3.25 does not pass this V1 rule.
away_starter_xera_not_below_3_25
Ryan GustoK-BB%
Ryan Gusto recorded a 12.5% K-BB%. V1 requires each starter to be above 18.0%.
Observed
12.5%
V1 requirement
Above 18.0%
Exactly 18.0% does not pass this V1 rule.
away_starter_k_minus_bb_not_above_18pct
Miami Marlins bullpenBullpen ERA rank
Miami Marlins bullpen recorded a #14 ERA rank. V1 requires each bullpen to be in the top 10 (#1–#10).
Observed
#14
V1 requirement
Top 10 (#1–#10)
away_bullpen_era_rank_not_top_10
Washington Nationals bullpenBullpen ERA rank
Washington Nationals bullpen recorded a #28 ERA rank. V1 requires each bullpen to be in the top 10 (#1–#10).
Observed
#28
V1 requirement
Top 10 (#1–#10)
home_bullpen_era_rank_not_top_10

Duel Filter V1 · v1.0.0Evaluated Aug 31, 9:17 AM CDTInputs updated Aug 31, 9:17 AM CDTMLB 822689

Aug 31, 6:40 PM CDTTarget Field

Does not match

Away

Detroit Tigers

Jackson Jobeprobable

xERA: 5.67
K-BB%: 8.8%
Bullpen: #10

Pitcher stats through 2026-08-31

Home

Minnesota Twins

Taj Bradleyprobable

xERA: 3.85
K-BB%: 16.9%
Bullpen: #27

Pitcher stats through 2026-08-31

Does not match

The evaluation was complete, but one or more immutable V1 thresholds did not pass.

Thresholds not met

Jackson JobexERA
Jackson Jobe recorded a 5.67 xERA. V1 requires each starter to be below 3.25.
Observed
5.67
V1 requirement
Below 3.25
Exactly 3.25 does not pass this V1 rule.
away_starter_xera_not_below_3_25
Taj BradleyxERA
Taj Bradley recorded a 3.85 xERA. V1 requires each starter to be below 3.25.
Observed
3.85
V1 requirement
Below 3.25
Exactly 3.25 does not pass this V1 rule.
home_starter_xera_not_below_3_25
Jackson JobeK-BB%
Jackson Jobe recorded a 8.8% K-BB%. V1 requires each starter to be above 18.0%.
Observed
8.8%
V1 requirement
Above 18.0%
Exactly 18.0% does not pass this V1 rule.
away_starter_k_minus_bb_not_above_18pct
Taj BradleyK-BB%
Taj Bradley recorded a 16.9% K-BB%. V1 requires each starter to be above 18.0%.
Observed
16.9%
V1 requirement
Above 18.0%
Exactly 18.0% does not pass this V1 rule.
home_starter_k_minus_bb_not_above_18pct
Minnesota Twins bullpenBullpen ERA rank
Minnesota Twins bullpen recorded a #27 ERA rank. V1 requires each bullpen to be in the top 10 (#1–#10).
Observed
#27
V1 requirement
Top 10 (#1–#10)
home_bullpen_era_rank_not_top_10

Duel Filter V1 · v1.0.0Evaluated Aug 31, 9:17 AM CDTInputs updated Aug 31, 9:17 AM CDTMLB 823663

Aug 31, 6:40 PM CDTWrigley Field

Does not match

Away

Milwaukee Brewers

Kyle Harrisonprobable

xERA: 3.24
K-BB%: 23.6%
Bullpen: #3

Pitcher stats through 2026-08-31

Home

Chicago Cubs

Clay Holmesprobable

xERA: 3.96
K-BB%: 9.9%
Bullpen: #11

Pitcher stats through 2026-08-31

Does not match

The evaluation was complete, but one or more immutable V1 thresholds did not pass.

Thresholds not met

Clay HolmesxERA
Clay Holmes recorded a 3.96 xERA. V1 requires each starter to be below 3.25.
Observed
3.96
V1 requirement
Below 3.25
Exactly 3.25 does not pass this V1 rule.
home_starter_xera_not_below_3_25
Clay HolmesK-BB%
Clay Holmes recorded a 9.9% K-BB%. V1 requires each starter to be above 18.0%.
Observed
9.9%
V1 requirement
Above 18.0%
Exactly 18.0% does not pass this V1 rule.
home_starter_k_minus_bb_not_above_18pct
Chicago Cubs bullpenBullpen ERA rank
Chicago Cubs bullpen recorded a #11 ERA rank. V1 requires each bullpen to be in the top 10 (#1–#10).
Observed
#11
V1 requirement
Top 10 (#1–#10)
home_bullpen_era_rank_not_top_10

Duel Filter V1 · v1.0.0Evaluated Aug 31, 9:17 AM CDTInputs updated Aug 31, 9:17 AM CDTMLB 824635

Aug 31, 7:05 PM CDTGlobe Life Field

Does not match

Away

Athletics

Gage Jumpprobable

xERA: 4.25
K-BB%: 14.3%
Bullpen: #30

Pitcher stats through 2026-08-31

Home

Texas Rangers

Jacob deGromprobable

xERA: 3.67
K-BB%: 22.6%
Bullpen: #22

Pitcher stats through 2026-08-31

Does not match

The evaluation was complete, but one or more immutable V1 thresholds did not pass.

Thresholds not met

Gage JumpxERA
Gage Jump recorded a 4.25 xERA. V1 requires each starter to be below 3.25.
Observed
4.25
V1 requirement
Below 3.25
Exactly 3.25 does not pass this V1 rule.
away_starter_xera_not_below_3_25
Jacob deGromxERA
Jacob deGrom recorded a 3.67 xERA. V1 requires each starter to be below 3.25.
Observed
3.67
V1 requirement
Below 3.25
Exactly 3.25 does not pass this V1 rule.
home_starter_xera_not_below_3_25
Gage JumpK-BB%
Gage Jump recorded a 14.3% K-BB%. V1 requires each starter to be above 18.0%.
Observed
14.3%
V1 requirement
Above 18.0%
Exactly 18.0% does not pass this V1 rule.
away_starter_k_minus_bb_not_above_18pct
Athletics bullpenBullpen ERA rank
Athletics bullpen recorded a #30 ERA rank. V1 requires each bullpen to be in the top 10 (#1–#10).
Observed
#30
V1 requirement
Top 10 (#1–#10)
away_bullpen_era_rank_not_top_10
Texas Rangers bullpenBullpen ERA rank
Texas Rangers bullpen recorded a #22 ERA rank. V1 requires each bullpen to be in the top 10 (#1–#10).
Observed
#22
V1 requirement
Top 10 (#1–#10)
home_bullpen_era_rank_not_top_10

Duel Filter V1 · v1.0.0Evaluated Aug 31, 9:17 AM CDTInputs updated Aug 31, 9:17 AM CDTMLB 822855

Aug 31, 7:10 PM CDTDaikin Park

Does not match

Away

Chicago White Sox

Anthony Kayprobable

xERA: 4.94
K-BB%: 10.4%
Bullpen: #7

Pitcher stats through 2026-08-31

Home

Houston Astros

Peter Lambertprobable

xERA: 3.54
K-BB%: 13.7%
Bullpen: #17

Pitcher stats through 2026-08-31

Does not match

The evaluation was complete, but one or more immutable V1 thresholds did not pass.

Thresholds not met

Anthony KayxERA
Anthony Kay recorded a 4.94 xERA. V1 requires each starter to be below 3.25.
Observed
4.94
V1 requirement
Below 3.25
Exactly 3.25 does not pass this V1 rule.
away_starter_xera_not_below_3_25
Peter LambertxERA
Peter Lambert recorded a 3.54 xERA. V1 requires each starter to be below 3.25.
Observed
3.54
V1 requirement
Below 3.25
Exactly 3.25 does not pass this V1 rule.
home_starter_xera_not_below_3_25
Anthony KayK-BB%
Anthony Kay recorded a 10.4% K-BB%. V1 requires each starter to be above 18.0%.
Observed
10.4%
V1 requirement
Above 18.0%
Exactly 18.0% does not pass this V1 rule.
away_starter_k_minus_bb_not_above_18pct
Peter LambertK-BB%
Peter Lambert recorded a 13.7% K-BB%. V1 requires each starter to be above 18.0%.
Observed
13.7%
V1 requirement
Above 18.0%
Exactly 18.0% does not pass this V1 rule.
home_starter_k_minus_bb_not_above_18pct
Houston Astros bullpenBullpen ERA rank
Houston Astros bullpen recorded a #17 ERA rank. V1 requires each bullpen to be in the top 10 (#1–#10).
Observed
#17
V1 requirement
Top 10 (#1–#10)
home_bullpen_era_rank_not_top_10

Duel Filter V1 · v1.0.0Evaluated Aug 31, 9:17 AM CDTInputs updated Aug 31, 9:17 AM CDTMLB 824149

Aug 31, 7:40 PM CDTCoors Field

Incomplete data

Away

Baltimore Orioles

Starter not linkedunknown

xERA: —
K-BB%: —
Bullpen: #13

Pitcher stats through not available

Home

Colorado Rockies

Tanner Gordonprobable

xERA: 4.40
K-BB%: 14.8%
Bullpen: #26

Pitcher stats through 2026-08-31

Incomplete data

No pass/fail conclusion was made because required point-in-time evidence was missing.

Missing point-in-time inputs

Baltimore Orioles starterxERA
No point-in-time xERA snapshot was linked for Baltimore Orioles starter when this evaluation ran. V1 did not infer a replacement value.
Observed
Missing at evaluation
V1 requirement
Below 3.25
missing_away_starter_xera
Baltimore Orioles starterK-BB%
No point-in-time K-BB% snapshot was linked for Baltimore Orioles starter when this evaluation ran. V1 did not infer a replacement value.
Observed
Missing at evaluation
V1 requirement
Above 18.0%
missing_away_starter_k_minus_bb

Duel Filter V1 · v1.0.0Evaluated Aug 31, 9:17 AM CDTInputs updated Aug 31, 9:17 AM CDTMLB 824314

Aug 31, 8:38 PM CDTAngel Stadium

Does not match

Away

New York Yankees

Elmer Rodríguezprobable

xERA: 5.45
K-BB%: 2.9%
Bullpen: #1

Pitcher stats through 2026-08-31

Home

Los Angeles Angels

Walbert Ureñaprobable

xERA: 3.43
K-BB%: 9.6%
Bullpen: #21

Pitcher stats through 2026-08-31

Does not match

The evaluation was complete, but one or more immutable V1 thresholds did not pass.

Thresholds not met

Elmer RodríguezxERA
Elmer Rodríguez recorded a 5.45 xERA. V1 requires each starter to be below 3.25.
Observed
5.45
V1 requirement
Below 3.25
Exactly 3.25 does not pass this V1 rule.
away_starter_xera_not_below_3_25
Walbert UreñaxERA
Walbert Ureña recorded a 3.43 xERA. V1 requires each starter to be below 3.25.
Observed
3.43
V1 requirement
Below 3.25
Exactly 3.25 does not pass this V1 rule.
home_starter_xera_not_below_3_25
Elmer RodríguezK-BB%
Elmer Rodríguez recorded a 2.9% K-BB%. V1 requires each starter to be above 18.0%.
Observed
2.9%
V1 requirement
Above 18.0%
Exactly 18.0% does not pass this V1 rule.
away_starter_k_minus_bb_not_above_18pct
Walbert UreñaK-BB%
Walbert Ureña recorded a 9.6% K-BB%. V1 requires each starter to be above 18.0%.
Observed
9.6%
V1 requirement
Above 18.0%
Exactly 18.0% does not pass this V1 rule.
home_starter_k_minus_bb_not_above_18pct
Los Angeles Angels bullpenBullpen ERA rank
Los Angeles Angels bullpen recorded a #21 ERA rank. V1 requires each bullpen to be in the top 10 (#1–#10).
Observed
#21
V1 requirement
Top 10 (#1–#10)
home_bullpen_era_rank_not_top_10

Duel Filter V1 · v1.0.0Evaluated Aug 31, 9:17 AM CDTInputs updated Aug 31, 9:17 AM CDTMLB 823982

Aug 31, 8:40 PM CDTChase Field

Incomplete data

Away

Philadelphia Phillies

Aaron Nolaprobable

xERA: 4.16
K-BB%: 16.9%
Bullpen: #19

Pitcher stats through 2026-08-31

Home

Arizona Diamondbacks

Starter not linkedunknown

xERA: —
K-BB%: —
Bullpen: #18

Pitcher stats through not available

Incomplete data

No pass/fail conclusion was made because required point-in-time evidence was missing.

Missing point-in-time inputs

Arizona Diamondbacks starterxERA
No point-in-time xERA snapshot was linked for Arizona Diamondbacks starter when this evaluation ran. V1 did not infer a replacement value.
Observed
Missing at evaluation
V1 requirement
Below 3.25
missing_home_starter_xera
Arizona Diamondbacks starterK-BB%
No point-in-time K-BB% snapshot was linked for Arizona Diamondbacks starter when this evaluation ran. V1 did not infer a replacement value.
Observed
Missing at evaluation
V1 requirement
Above 18.0%
missing_home_starter_k_minus_bb

Duel Filter V1 · v1.0.0Evaluated Aug 31, 9:17 AM CDTInputs updated Aug 31, 9:17 AM CDTMLB 825040