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Duel Filter V1 · Daily research cohort

Suppression Candidates

The original pitcher-duel hypothesis, evaluated with immutable point-in-time starter and bullpen snapshots.

Research benchmark only · A cohort match is not a betting recommendation

Evaluated10

V1 matches0

Rejected8

Incomplete2

Point-in-time audit

Daily evaluations

Private source connected

Aug 24, 5:40 PM CDTComerica Park

Does not match

Away

Tampa Bay Rays

Drew Rasmussenprobable

xERA: 3.12
K-BB%: 21.4%
Bullpen: #17

Pitcher stats through 2026-08-24

Home

Detroit Tigers

Framber Valdezprobable

xERA: 4.44
K-BB%: 9.3%
Bullpen: #11

Pitcher stats through 2026-08-24

Does not match

The evaluation was complete, but one or more immutable V1 thresholds did not pass.

Thresholds not met

Framber ValdezxERA
Framber Valdez recorded a 4.44 xERA. V1 requires each starter to be below 3.25.
Observed
4.44
V1 requirement
Below 3.25
Exactly 3.25 does not pass this V1 rule.
home_starter_xera_not_below_3_25
Framber ValdezK-BB%
Framber Valdez recorded a 9.3% K-BB%. V1 requires each starter to be above 18.0%.
Observed
9.3%
V1 requirement
Above 18.0%
Exactly 18.0% does not pass this V1 rule.
home_starter_k_minus_bb_not_above_18pct
Tampa Bay Rays bullpenBullpen ERA rank
Tampa Bay Rays bullpen recorded a #17 ERA rank. V1 requires each bullpen to be in the top 10 (#1–#10).
Observed
#17
V1 requirement
Top 10 (#1–#10)
away_bullpen_era_rank_not_top_10
Detroit Tigers bullpenBullpen ERA rank
Detroit Tigers bullpen recorded a #11 ERA rank. V1 requires each bullpen to be in the top 10 (#1–#10).
Observed
#11
V1 requirement
Top 10 (#1–#10)
home_bullpen_era_rank_not_top_10

Duel Filter V1 · v1.0.0Evaluated Aug 24, 9:59 AM CDTInputs updated Aug 24, 9:59 AM CDTMLB 824235

Aug 24, 5:40 PM CDTloanDepot park

Does not match

Away

Boston Red Sox

Ranger Suarezprobable

xERA: 3.62
K-BB%: 17.1%
Bullpen: #1

Pitcher stats through 2026-08-24

Home

Miami Marlins

Sandy Alcantaraprobable

xERA: 3.67
K-BB%: 11.5%
Bullpen: #12

Pitcher stats through 2026-08-24

Does not match

The evaluation was complete, but one or more immutable V1 thresholds did not pass.

Thresholds not met

Ranger SuarezxERA
Ranger Suarez recorded a 3.62 xERA. V1 requires each starter to be below 3.25.
Observed
3.62
V1 requirement
Below 3.25
Exactly 3.25 does not pass this V1 rule.
away_starter_xera_not_below_3_25
Sandy AlcantaraxERA
Sandy Alcantara recorded a 3.67 xERA. V1 requires each starter to be below 3.25.
Observed
3.67
V1 requirement
Below 3.25
Exactly 3.25 does not pass this V1 rule.
home_starter_xera_not_below_3_25
Ranger SuarezK-BB%
Ranger Suarez recorded a 17.1% K-BB%. V1 requires each starter to be above 18.0%.
Observed
17.1%
V1 requirement
Above 18.0%
Exactly 18.0% does not pass this V1 rule.
away_starter_k_minus_bb_not_above_18pct
Sandy AlcantaraK-BB%
Sandy Alcantara recorded a 11.5% K-BB%. V1 requires each starter to be above 18.0%.
Observed
11.5%
V1 requirement
Above 18.0%
Exactly 18.0% does not pass this V1 rule.
home_starter_k_minus_bb_not_above_18pct
Miami Marlins bullpenBullpen ERA rank
Miami Marlins bullpen recorded a #12 ERA rank. V1 requires each bullpen to be in the top 10 (#1–#10).
Observed
#12
V1 requirement
Top 10 (#1–#10)
home_bullpen_era_rank_not_top_10

Duel Filter V1 · v1.0.0Evaluated Aug 24, 9:59 AM CDTInputs updated Aug 24, 9:59 AM CDTMLB 823828

Aug 24, 5:45 PM CDTNationals Park

Does not match

Away

Colorado Rockies

Ryan Feltnerprobable

xERA: 5.57
K-BB%: 6.1%
Bullpen: #26

Pitcher stats through 2026-08-24

Home

Washington Nationals

Cade Cavalliprobable

xERA: 3.83
K-BB%: 20.0%
Bullpen: #27

Pitcher stats through 2026-08-24

Does not match

The evaluation was complete, but one or more immutable V1 thresholds did not pass.

Thresholds not met

Ryan FeltnerxERA
Ryan Feltner recorded a 5.57 xERA. V1 requires each starter to be below 3.25.
Observed
5.57
V1 requirement
Below 3.25
Exactly 3.25 does not pass this V1 rule.
away_starter_xera_not_below_3_25
Cade CavallixERA
Cade Cavalli recorded a 3.83 xERA. V1 requires each starter to be below 3.25.
Observed
3.83
V1 requirement
Below 3.25
Exactly 3.25 does not pass this V1 rule.
home_starter_xera_not_below_3_25
Ryan FeltnerK-BB%
Ryan Feltner recorded a 6.1% K-BB%. V1 requires each starter to be above 18.0%.
Observed
6.1%
V1 requirement
Above 18.0%
Exactly 18.0% does not pass this V1 rule.
away_starter_k_minus_bb_not_above_18pct
Colorado Rockies bullpenBullpen ERA rank
Colorado Rockies bullpen recorded a #26 ERA rank. V1 requires each bullpen to be in the top 10 (#1–#10).
Observed
#26
V1 requirement
Top 10 (#1–#10)
away_bullpen_era_rank_not_top_10
Washington Nationals bullpenBullpen ERA rank
Washington Nationals bullpen recorded a #27 ERA rank. V1 requires each bullpen to be in the top 10 (#1–#10).
Observed
#27
V1 requirement
Top 10 (#1–#10)
home_bullpen_era_rank_not_top_10

Duel Filter V1 · v1.0.0Evaluated Aug 24, 9:59 AM CDTInputs updated Aug 24, 9:59 AM CDTMLB 822695

Aug 24, 6:40 PM CDTRate Field

Incomplete data

Away

Texas Rangers

Kumar Rockerprobable

xERA: 4.72
K-BB%: 11.6%
Bullpen: #22

Pitcher stats through 2026-08-24

Home

Chicago White Sox

Starter not linkedunknown

xERA: —
K-BB%: —
Bullpen: #7

Pitcher stats through not available

Incomplete data

No pass/fail conclusion was made because required point-in-time evidence was missing.

Missing point-in-time inputs

Chicago White Sox starterxERA
No point-in-time xERA snapshot was linked for Chicago White Sox starter when this evaluation ran. V1 did not infer a replacement value.
Observed
Missing at evaluation
V1 requirement
Below 3.25
missing_home_starter_xera
Chicago White Sox starterK-BB%
No point-in-time K-BB% snapshot was linked for Chicago White Sox starter when this evaluation ran. V1 did not infer a replacement value.
Observed
Missing at evaluation
V1 requirement
Above 18.0%
missing_home_starter_k_minus_bb

Duel Filter V1 · v1.0.0Evaluated Aug 24, 9:59 AM CDTInputs updated Aug 24, 9:59 AM CDTMLB 824557

Aug 24, 8:38 PM CDTAngel Stadium

Does not match

Away

Cleveland Guardians

Parker Messickprobable

xERA: 2.94
K-BB%: 19.0%
Bullpen: #10

Pitcher stats through 2026-08-24

Home

Los Angeles Angels

George Klassenprobable

xERA: 5.28
K-BB%: 3.0%
Bullpen: #19

Pitcher stats through 2026-08-24

Does not match

The evaluation was complete, but one or more immutable V1 thresholds did not pass.

Thresholds not met

George KlassenxERA
George Klassen recorded a 5.28 xERA. V1 requires each starter to be below 3.25.
Observed
5.28
V1 requirement
Below 3.25
Exactly 3.25 does not pass this V1 rule.
home_starter_xera_not_below_3_25
George KlassenK-BB%
George Klassen recorded a 3.0% K-BB%. V1 requires each starter to be above 18.0%.
Observed
3.0%
V1 requirement
Above 18.0%
Exactly 18.0% does not pass this V1 rule.
home_starter_k_minus_bb_not_above_18pct
Los Angeles Angels bullpenBullpen ERA rank
Los Angeles Angels bullpen recorded a #19 ERA rank. V1 requires each bullpen to be in the top 10 (#1–#10).
Observed
#19
V1 requirement
Top 10 (#1–#10)
home_bullpen_era_rank_not_top_10

Duel Filter V1 · v1.0.0Evaluated Aug 24, 9:59 AM CDTInputs updated Aug 24, 9:59 AM CDTMLB 823992

Aug 24, 8:40 PM CDTChase Field

Does not match

Away

Chicago Cubs

Kevin Gausmanprobable

xERA: 4.03
K-BB%: 16.9%
Bullpen: #9

Pitcher stats through 2026-08-24

Home

Arizona Diamondbacks

Merrill Kellyprobable

xERA: 7.23
K-BB%: 4.8%
Bullpen: #16

Pitcher stats through 2026-08-24

Does not match

The evaluation was complete, but one or more immutable V1 thresholds did not pass.

Thresholds not met

Kevin GausmanxERA
Kevin Gausman recorded a 4.03 xERA. V1 requires each starter to be below 3.25.
Observed
4.03
V1 requirement
Below 3.25
Exactly 3.25 does not pass this V1 rule.
away_starter_xera_not_below_3_25
Merrill KellyxERA
Merrill Kelly recorded a 7.23 xERA. V1 requires each starter to be below 3.25.
Observed
7.23
V1 requirement
Below 3.25
Exactly 3.25 does not pass this V1 rule.
home_starter_xera_not_below_3_25
Kevin GausmanK-BB%
Kevin Gausman recorded a 16.9% K-BB%. V1 requires each starter to be above 18.0%.
Observed
16.9%
V1 requirement
Above 18.0%
Exactly 18.0% does not pass this V1 rule.
away_starter_k_minus_bb_not_above_18pct
Merrill KellyK-BB%
Merrill Kelly recorded a 4.8% K-BB%. V1 requires each starter to be above 18.0%.
Observed
4.8%
V1 requirement
Above 18.0%
Exactly 18.0% does not pass this V1 rule.
home_starter_k_minus_bb_not_above_18pct
Arizona Diamondbacks bullpenBullpen ERA rank
Arizona Diamondbacks bullpen recorded a #16 ERA rank. V1 requires each bullpen to be in the top 10 (#1–#10).
Observed
#16
V1 requirement
Top 10 (#1–#10)
home_bullpen_era_rank_not_top_10

Duel Filter V1 · v1.0.0Evaluated Aug 24, 9:59 AM CDTInputs updated Aug 24, 9:59 AM CDTMLB 825041

Aug 24, 8:40 PM CDTPetco Park

Does not match

Away

Pittsburgh Pirates

Braxton Ashcraftprobable

xERA: 3.36
K-BB%: 20.9%
Bullpen: #18

Pitcher stats through 2026-08-24

Home

San Diego Padres

Robbie Rayprobable

xERA: 4.59
K-BB%: 8.5%
Bullpen: #5

Pitcher stats through 2026-08-24

Does not match

The evaluation was complete, but one or more immutable V1 thresholds did not pass.

Thresholds not met

Braxton AshcraftxERA
Braxton Ashcraft recorded a 3.36 xERA. V1 requires each starter to be below 3.25.
Observed
3.36
V1 requirement
Below 3.25
Exactly 3.25 does not pass this V1 rule.
away_starter_xera_not_below_3_25
Robbie RayxERA
Robbie Ray recorded a 4.59 xERA. V1 requires each starter to be below 3.25.
Observed
4.59
V1 requirement
Below 3.25
Exactly 3.25 does not pass this V1 rule.
home_starter_xera_not_below_3_25
Robbie RayK-BB%
Robbie Ray recorded a 8.5% K-BB%. V1 requires each starter to be above 18.0%.
Observed
8.5%
V1 requirement
Above 18.0%
Exactly 18.0% does not pass this V1 rule.
home_starter_k_minus_bb_not_above_18pct
Pittsburgh Pirates bullpenBullpen ERA rank
Pittsburgh Pirates bullpen recorded a #18 ERA rank. V1 requires each bullpen to be in the top 10 (#1–#10).
Observed
#18
V1 requirement
Top 10 (#1–#10)
away_bullpen_era_rank_not_top_10

Duel Filter V1 · v1.0.0Evaluated Aug 24, 9:59 AM CDTInputs updated Aug 24, 9:59 AM CDTMLB 823260

Aug 24, 8:40 PM CDTSutter Health Park

Does not match

Away

Minnesota Twins

Zebby Matthewsprobable

xERA: 4.68
K-BB%: 12.2%
Bullpen: #27

Pitcher stats through 2026-08-24

Home

Athletics

Jeffrey Springsprobable

xERA: 5.08
K-BB%: 8.3%
Bullpen: #30

Pitcher stats through 2026-08-24

Does not match

The evaluation was complete, but one or more immutable V1 thresholds did not pass.

Thresholds not met

Zebby MatthewsxERA
Zebby Matthews recorded a 4.68 xERA. V1 requires each starter to be below 3.25.
Observed
4.68
V1 requirement
Below 3.25
Exactly 3.25 does not pass this V1 rule.
away_starter_xera_not_below_3_25
Jeffrey SpringsxERA
Jeffrey Springs recorded a 5.08 xERA. V1 requires each starter to be below 3.25.
Observed
5.08
V1 requirement
Below 3.25
Exactly 3.25 does not pass this V1 rule.
home_starter_xera_not_below_3_25
Zebby MatthewsK-BB%
Zebby Matthews recorded a 12.2% K-BB%. V1 requires each starter to be above 18.0%.
Observed
12.2%
V1 requirement
Above 18.0%
Exactly 18.0% does not pass this V1 rule.
away_starter_k_minus_bb_not_above_18pct
Jeffrey SpringsK-BB%
Jeffrey Springs recorded a 8.3% K-BB%. V1 requires each starter to be above 18.0%.
Observed
8.3%
V1 requirement
Above 18.0%
Exactly 18.0% does not pass this V1 rule.
home_starter_k_minus_bb_not_above_18pct
Minnesota Twins bullpenBullpen ERA rank
Minnesota Twins bullpen recorded a #27 ERA rank. V1 requires each bullpen to be in the top 10 (#1–#10).
Observed
#27
V1 requirement
Top 10 (#1–#10)
away_bullpen_era_rank_not_top_10
Athletics bullpenBullpen ERA rank
Athletics bullpen recorded a #30 ERA rank. V1 requires each bullpen to be in the top 10 (#1–#10).
Observed
#30
V1 requirement
Top 10 (#1–#10)
home_bullpen_era_rank_not_top_10

Duel Filter V1 · v1.0.0Evaluated Aug 24, 9:59 AM CDTInputs updated Aug 24, 9:59 AM CDTMLB 824964

Aug 24, 8:40 PM CDTT-Mobile Park

Does not match

Away

Philadelphia Phillies

Zack Wheelerprobable

xERA: 2.78
K-BB%: 23.4%
Bullpen: #21

Pitcher stats through 2026-08-24

Home

Seattle Mariners

Logan Gilbertprobable

xERA: 3.70
K-BB%: 20.2%
Bullpen: #24

Pitcher stats through 2026-08-24

Does not match

The evaluation was complete, but one or more immutable V1 thresholds did not pass.

Thresholds not met

Logan GilbertxERA
Logan Gilbert recorded a 3.70 xERA. V1 requires each starter to be below 3.25.
Observed
3.70
V1 requirement
Below 3.25
Exactly 3.25 does not pass this V1 rule.
home_starter_xera_not_below_3_25
Philadelphia Phillies bullpenBullpen ERA rank
Philadelphia Phillies bullpen recorded a #21 ERA rank. V1 requires each bullpen to be in the top 10 (#1–#10).
Observed
#21
V1 requirement
Top 10 (#1–#10)
away_bullpen_era_rank_not_top_10
Seattle Mariners bullpenBullpen ERA rank
Seattle Mariners bullpen recorded a #24 ERA rank. V1 requires each bullpen to be in the top 10 (#1–#10).
Observed
#24
V1 requirement
Top 10 (#1–#10)
home_bullpen_era_rank_not_top_10

Duel Filter V1 · v1.0.0Evaluated Aug 24, 9:59 AM CDTInputs updated Aug 24, 9:59 AM CDTMLB 823097

Aug 24, 8:45 PM CDTOracle Park

Incomplete data

Away

Cincinnati Reds

Chase Burnsprobable

xERA: 3.01
K-BB%: 20.3%
Bullpen: #25

Pitcher stats through 2026-08-24

Home

San Francisco Giants

Starter not linkedunknown

xERA: —
K-BB%: —
Bullpen: #20

Pitcher stats through not available

Incomplete data

No pass/fail conclusion was made because required point-in-time evidence was missing.

Missing point-in-time inputs

San Francisco Giants starterxERA
No point-in-time xERA snapshot was linked for San Francisco Giants starter when this evaluation ran. V1 did not infer a replacement value.
Observed
Missing at evaluation
V1 requirement
Below 3.25
missing_home_starter_xera
San Francisco Giants starterK-BB%
No point-in-time K-BB% snapshot was linked for San Francisco Giants starter when this evaluation ran. V1 did not infer a replacement value.
Observed
Missing at evaluation
V1 requirement
Above 18.0%
missing_home_starter_k_minus_bb

Duel Filter V1 · v1.0.0Evaluated Aug 24, 9:59 AM CDTInputs updated Aug 24, 9:59 AM CDTMLB 823183