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Duel Filter V1 · Daily research cohort

Suppression Candidates

The original pitcher-duel hypothesis, evaluated with immutable point-in-time starter and bullpen snapshots.

Research benchmark only · A cohort match is not a betting recommendation

Evaluated9

V1 matches0

Rejected9

Incomplete0

Point-in-time audit

Daily evaluations

Private source connected

Aug 20, 11:40 AM CDTGreat American Ball Park

Does not match

Away

St. Louis Cardinals

Michael McGreevyprobable

xERA: 5.47
K-BB%: 10.6%
Bullpen: #18

Pitcher stats through 2026-08-20

Home

Cincinnati Reds

Brady Singerprobable

xERA: 5.05
K-BB%: 11.1%
Bullpen: #25

Pitcher stats through 2026-08-20

Does not match

The evaluation was complete, but one or more immutable V1 thresholds did not pass.

Thresholds not met

Michael McGreevyxERA
Michael McGreevy recorded a 5.47 xERA. V1 requires each starter to be below 3.25.
Observed
5.47
V1 requirement
Below 3.25
Exactly 3.25 does not pass this V1 rule.
away_starter_xera_not_below_3_25
Brady SingerxERA
Brady Singer recorded a 5.05 xERA. V1 requires each starter to be below 3.25.
Observed
5.05
V1 requirement
Below 3.25
Exactly 3.25 does not pass this V1 rule.
home_starter_xera_not_below_3_25
Michael McGreevyK-BB%
Michael McGreevy recorded a 10.6% K-BB%. V1 requires each starter to be above 18.0%.
Observed
10.6%
V1 requirement
Above 18.0%
Exactly 18.0% does not pass this V1 rule.
away_starter_k_minus_bb_not_above_18pct
Brady SingerK-BB%
Brady Singer recorded a 11.1% K-BB%. V1 requires each starter to be above 18.0%.
Observed
11.1%
V1 requirement
Above 18.0%
Exactly 18.0% does not pass this V1 rule.
home_starter_k_minus_bb_not_above_18pct
St. Louis Cardinals bullpenBullpen ERA rank
St. Louis Cardinals bullpen recorded a #18 ERA rank. V1 requires each bullpen to be in the top 10 (#1–#10).
Observed
#18
V1 requirement
Top 10 (#1–#10)
away_bullpen_era_rank_not_top_10
Cincinnati Reds bullpenBullpen ERA rank
Cincinnati Reds bullpen recorded a #25 ERA rank. V1 requires each bullpen to be in the top 10 (#1–#10).
Observed
#25
V1 requirement
Top 10 (#1–#10)
home_bullpen_era_rank_not_top_10

Duel Filter V1 · v1.0.0Evaluated Aug 20, 9:54 AM CDTInputs updated Aug 20, 9:54 AM CDTMLB 824474

Aug 20, 12:10 PM CDTTropicana Field

Does not match

Away

Toronto Blue Jays

Shane Bieberprobable

xERA: 6.85
K-BB%: 6.0%
Bullpen: #7

Pitcher stats through 2026-08-20

Home

Tampa Bay Rays

Ian Seymourprobable

xERA: 3.65
K-BB%: 21.1%
Bullpen: #16

Pitcher stats through 2026-08-20

Does not match

The evaluation was complete, but one or more immutable V1 thresholds did not pass.

Thresholds not met

Shane BieberxERA
Shane Bieber recorded a 6.85 xERA. V1 requires each starter to be below 3.25.
Observed
6.85
V1 requirement
Below 3.25
Exactly 3.25 does not pass this V1 rule.
away_starter_xera_not_below_3_25
Ian SeymourxERA
Ian Seymour recorded a 3.65 xERA. V1 requires each starter to be below 3.25.
Observed
3.65
V1 requirement
Below 3.25
Exactly 3.25 does not pass this V1 rule.
home_starter_xera_not_below_3_25
Shane BieberK-BB%
Shane Bieber recorded a 6.0% K-BB%. V1 requires each starter to be above 18.0%.
Observed
6.0%
V1 requirement
Above 18.0%
Exactly 18.0% does not pass this V1 rule.
away_starter_k_minus_bb_not_above_18pct
Tampa Bay Rays bullpenBullpen ERA rank
Tampa Bay Rays bullpen recorded a #16 ERA rank. V1 requires each bullpen to be in the top 10 (#1–#10).
Observed
#16
V1 requirement
Top 10 (#1–#10)
home_bullpen_era_rank_not_top_10

Duel Filter V1 · v1.0.0Evaluated Aug 20, 9:54 AM CDTInputs updated Aug 20, 9:54 AM CDTMLB 822934

Aug 20, 12:10 PM CDTProgressive Field

Does not match

Away

San Francisco Giants

Landen Rouppprobable

xERA: 3.76
K-BB%: 12.4%
Bullpen: #21

Pitcher stats through 2026-08-20

Home

Cleveland Guardians

Gavin Williamsprobable

xERA: 3.89
K-BB%: 24.3%
Bullpen: #12

Pitcher stats through 2026-08-20

Does not match

The evaluation was complete, but one or more immutable V1 thresholds did not pass.

Thresholds not met

Landen RouppxERA
Landen Roupp recorded a 3.76 xERA. V1 requires each starter to be below 3.25.
Observed
3.76
V1 requirement
Below 3.25
Exactly 3.25 does not pass this V1 rule.
away_starter_xera_not_below_3_25
Gavin WilliamsxERA
Gavin Williams recorded a 3.89 xERA. V1 requires each starter to be below 3.25.
Observed
3.89
V1 requirement
Below 3.25
Exactly 3.25 does not pass this V1 rule.
home_starter_xera_not_below_3_25
Landen RouppK-BB%
Landen Roupp recorded a 12.4% K-BB%. V1 requires each starter to be above 18.0%.
Observed
12.4%
V1 requirement
Above 18.0%
Exactly 18.0% does not pass this V1 rule.
away_starter_k_minus_bb_not_above_18pct
San Francisco Giants bullpenBullpen ERA rank
San Francisco Giants bullpen recorded a #21 ERA rank. V1 requires each bullpen to be in the top 10 (#1–#10).
Observed
#21
V1 requirement
Top 10 (#1–#10)
away_bullpen_era_rank_not_top_10
Cleveland Guardians bullpenBullpen ERA rank
Cleveland Guardians bullpen recorded a #12 ERA rank. V1 requires each bullpen to be in the top 10 (#1–#10).
Observed
#12
V1 requirement
Top 10 (#1–#10)
home_bullpen_era_rank_not_top_10

Duel Filter V1 · v1.0.0Evaluated Aug 20, 9:54 AM CDTInputs updated Aug 20, 9:54 AM CDTMLB 824395

Aug 20, 1:10 PM CDTRate Field

Does not match

Away

Atlanta Braves

Grant Holmesprobable

xERA: 4.82
K-BB%: 9.1%
Bullpen: #4

Pitcher stats through 2026-08-20

Home

Chicago White Sox

Anthony Kayprobable

xERA: 5.02
K-BB%: 10.0%
Bullpen: #8

Pitcher stats through 2026-08-20

Does not match

The evaluation was complete, but one or more immutable V1 thresholds did not pass.

Thresholds not met

Grant HolmesxERA
Grant Holmes recorded a 4.82 xERA. V1 requires each starter to be below 3.25.
Observed
4.82
V1 requirement
Below 3.25
Exactly 3.25 does not pass this V1 rule.
away_starter_xera_not_below_3_25
Anthony KayxERA
Anthony Kay recorded a 5.02 xERA. V1 requires each starter to be below 3.25.
Observed
5.02
V1 requirement
Below 3.25
Exactly 3.25 does not pass this V1 rule.
home_starter_xera_not_below_3_25
Grant HolmesK-BB%
Grant Holmes recorded a 9.1% K-BB%. V1 requires each starter to be above 18.0%.
Observed
9.1%
V1 requirement
Above 18.0%
Exactly 18.0% does not pass this V1 rule.
away_starter_k_minus_bb_not_above_18pct
Anthony KayK-BB%
Anthony Kay recorded a 10.0% K-BB%. V1 requires each starter to be above 18.0%.
Observed
10.0%
V1 requirement
Above 18.0%
Exactly 18.0% does not pass this V1 rule.
home_starter_k_minus_bb_not_above_18pct

Duel Filter V1 · v1.0.0Evaluated Aug 20, 9:54 AM CDTInputs updated Aug 20, 9:54 AM CDTMLB 824589

Aug 20, 1:10 PM CDTKauffman Stadium

Does not match

Away

Athletics

Gage Jumpprobable

xERA: 4.26
K-BB%: 14.2%
Bullpen: #30

Pitcher stats through 2026-08-20

Home

Kansas City Royals

Randy Dobnakprobable

xERA: 4.57
K-BB%: 5.1%
Bullpen: #29

Pitcher stats through 2026-08-20

Does not match

The evaluation was complete, but one or more immutable V1 thresholds did not pass.

Thresholds not met

Gage JumpxERA
Gage Jump recorded a 4.26 xERA. V1 requires each starter to be below 3.25.
Observed
4.26
V1 requirement
Below 3.25
Exactly 3.25 does not pass this V1 rule.
away_starter_xera_not_below_3_25
Randy DobnakxERA
Randy Dobnak recorded a 4.57 xERA. V1 requires each starter to be below 3.25.
Observed
4.57
V1 requirement
Below 3.25
Exactly 3.25 does not pass this V1 rule.
home_starter_xera_not_below_3_25
Gage JumpK-BB%
Gage Jump recorded a 14.2% K-BB%. V1 requires each starter to be above 18.0%.
Observed
14.2%
V1 requirement
Above 18.0%
Exactly 18.0% does not pass this V1 rule.
away_starter_k_minus_bb_not_above_18pct
Randy DobnakK-BB%
Randy Dobnak recorded a 5.1% K-BB%. V1 requires each starter to be above 18.0%.
Observed
5.1%
V1 requirement
Above 18.0%
Exactly 18.0% does not pass this V1 rule.
home_starter_k_minus_bb_not_above_18pct
Athletics bullpenBullpen ERA rank
Athletics bullpen recorded a #30 ERA rank. V1 requires each bullpen to be in the top 10 (#1–#10).
Observed
#30
V1 requirement
Top 10 (#1–#10)
away_bullpen_era_rank_not_top_10
Kansas City Royals bullpenBullpen ERA rank
Kansas City Royals bullpen recorded a #29 ERA rank. V1 requires each bullpen to be in the top 10 (#1–#10).
Observed
#29
V1 requirement
Top 10 (#1–#10)
home_bullpen_era_rank_not_top_10

Duel Filter V1 · v1.0.0Evaluated Aug 20, 9:54 AM CDTInputs updated Aug 20, 9:54 AM CDTMLB 824074

Aug 20, 1:10 PM CDTAmerican Family Field

Does not match

Away

Seattle Mariners

George Kirbyprobable

xERA: 3.84
K-BB%: 14.6%
Bullpen: #20

Pitcher stats through 2026-08-20

Home

Milwaukee Brewers

Robert Gasserprobable

xERA: 4.20
K-BB%: 15.6%
Bullpen: #3

Pitcher stats through 2026-08-20

Does not match

The evaluation was complete, but one or more immutable V1 thresholds did not pass.

Thresholds not met

George KirbyxERA
George Kirby recorded a 3.84 xERA. V1 requires each starter to be below 3.25.
Observed
3.84
V1 requirement
Below 3.25
Exactly 3.25 does not pass this V1 rule.
away_starter_xera_not_below_3_25
Robert GasserxERA
Robert Gasser recorded a 4.20 xERA. V1 requires each starter to be below 3.25.
Observed
4.20
V1 requirement
Below 3.25
Exactly 3.25 does not pass this V1 rule.
home_starter_xera_not_below_3_25
George KirbyK-BB%
George Kirby recorded a 14.6% K-BB%. V1 requires each starter to be above 18.0%.
Observed
14.6%
V1 requirement
Above 18.0%
Exactly 18.0% does not pass this V1 rule.
away_starter_k_minus_bb_not_above_18pct
Robert GasserK-BB%
Robert Gasser recorded a 15.6% K-BB%. V1 requires each starter to be above 18.0%.
Observed
15.6%
V1 requirement
Above 18.0%
Exactly 18.0% does not pass this V1 rule.
home_starter_k_minus_bb_not_above_18pct
Seattle Mariners bullpenBullpen ERA rank
Seattle Mariners bullpen recorded a #20 ERA rank. V1 requires each bullpen to be in the top 10 (#1–#10).
Observed
#20
V1 requirement
Top 10 (#1–#10)
away_bullpen_era_rank_not_top_10

Duel Filter V1 · v1.0.0Evaluated Aug 20, 9:54 AM CDTInputs updated Aug 20, 9:54 AM CDTMLB 823747

Aug 20, 5:35 PM CDTOriole Park at Camden Yards

Does not match

Away

New York Yankees

Gerrit Coleprobable

xERA: 3.37
K-BB%: 20.7%
Bullpen: #2

Pitcher stats through 2026-08-20

Home

Baltimore Orioles

Kyle Bradishprobable

xERA: 4.09
K-BB%: 11.7%
Bullpen: #15

Pitcher stats through 2026-08-20

Does not match

The evaluation was complete, but one or more immutable V1 thresholds did not pass.

Thresholds not met

Gerrit ColexERA
Gerrit Cole recorded a 3.37 xERA. V1 requires each starter to be below 3.25.
Observed
3.37
V1 requirement
Below 3.25
Exactly 3.25 does not pass this V1 rule.
away_starter_xera_not_below_3_25
Kyle BradishxERA
Kyle Bradish recorded a 4.09 xERA. V1 requires each starter to be below 3.25.
Observed
4.09
V1 requirement
Below 3.25
Exactly 3.25 does not pass this V1 rule.
home_starter_xera_not_below_3_25
Kyle BradishK-BB%
Kyle Bradish recorded a 11.7% K-BB%. V1 requires each starter to be above 18.0%.
Observed
11.7%
V1 requirement
Above 18.0%
Exactly 18.0% does not pass this V1 rule.
home_starter_k_minus_bb_not_above_18pct
Baltimore Orioles bullpenBullpen ERA rank
Baltimore Orioles bullpen recorded a #15 ERA rank. V1 requires each bullpen to be in the top 10 (#1–#10).
Observed
#15
V1 requirement
Top 10 (#1–#10)
home_bullpen_era_rank_not_top_10

Duel Filter V1 · v1.0.0Evaluated Aug 20, 9:54 AM CDTInputs updated Aug 20, 9:54 AM CDTMLB 824802

Aug 20, 7:05 PM CDTGlobe Life Field

Does not match

Away

Washington Nationals

Andrew Alvarezprobable

xERA: 4.50
K-BB%: 11.4%
Bullpen: #27

Pitcher stats through 2026-08-20

Home

Texas Rangers

Jacob deGromprobable

xERA: 3.68
K-BB%: 23.3%
Bullpen: #24

Pitcher stats through 2026-08-20

Does not match

The evaluation was complete, but one or more immutable V1 thresholds did not pass.

Thresholds not met

Andrew AlvarezxERA
Andrew Alvarez recorded a 4.50 xERA. V1 requires each starter to be below 3.25.
Observed
4.50
V1 requirement
Below 3.25
Exactly 3.25 does not pass this V1 rule.
away_starter_xera_not_below_3_25
Jacob deGromxERA
Jacob deGrom recorded a 3.68 xERA. V1 requires each starter to be below 3.25.
Observed
3.68
V1 requirement
Below 3.25
Exactly 3.25 does not pass this V1 rule.
home_starter_xera_not_below_3_25
Andrew AlvarezK-BB%
Andrew Alvarez recorded a 11.4% K-BB%. V1 requires each starter to be above 18.0%.
Observed
11.4%
V1 requirement
Above 18.0%
Exactly 18.0% does not pass this V1 rule.
away_starter_k_minus_bb_not_above_18pct
Washington Nationals bullpenBullpen ERA rank
Washington Nationals bullpen recorded a #27 ERA rank. V1 requires each bullpen to be in the top 10 (#1–#10).
Observed
#27
V1 requirement
Top 10 (#1–#10)
away_bullpen_era_rank_not_top_10
Texas Rangers bullpenBullpen ERA rank
Texas Rangers bullpen recorded a #24 ERA rank. V1 requires each bullpen to be in the top 10 (#1–#10).
Observed
#24
V1 requirement
Top 10 (#1–#10)
home_bullpen_era_rank_not_top_10

Duel Filter V1 · v1.0.0Evaluated Aug 20, 9:54 AM CDTInputs updated Aug 20, 9:54 AM CDTMLB 822861

Aug 20, 7:10 PM CDTDaikin Park

Does not match

Away

Los Angeles Angels

Grayson Rodriguezprobable

xERA: 6.38
K-BB%: 10.0%
Bullpen: #22

Pitcher stats through 2026-08-20

Home

Houston Astros

Peter Lambertprobable

xERA: 3.34
K-BB%: 14.4%
Bullpen: #11

Pitcher stats through 2026-08-20

Does not match

The evaluation was complete, but one or more immutable V1 thresholds did not pass.

Thresholds not met

Grayson RodriguezxERA
Grayson Rodriguez recorded a 6.38 xERA. V1 requires each starter to be below 3.25.
Observed
6.38
V1 requirement
Below 3.25
Exactly 3.25 does not pass this V1 rule.
away_starter_xera_not_below_3_25
Peter LambertxERA
Peter Lambert recorded a 3.34 xERA. V1 requires each starter to be below 3.25.
Observed
3.34
V1 requirement
Below 3.25
Exactly 3.25 does not pass this V1 rule.
home_starter_xera_not_below_3_25
Grayson RodriguezK-BB%
Grayson Rodriguez recorded a 10.0% K-BB%. V1 requires each starter to be above 18.0%.
Observed
10.0%
V1 requirement
Above 18.0%
Exactly 18.0% does not pass this V1 rule.
away_starter_k_minus_bb_not_above_18pct
Peter LambertK-BB%
Peter Lambert recorded a 14.4% K-BB%. V1 requires each starter to be above 18.0%.
Observed
14.4%
V1 requirement
Above 18.0%
Exactly 18.0% does not pass this V1 rule.
home_starter_k_minus_bb_not_above_18pct
Los Angeles Angels bullpenBullpen ERA rank
Los Angeles Angels bullpen recorded a #22 ERA rank. V1 requires each bullpen to be in the top 10 (#1–#10).
Observed
#22
V1 requirement
Top 10 (#1–#10)
away_bullpen_era_rank_not_top_10
Houston Astros bullpenBullpen ERA rank
Houston Astros bullpen recorded a #11 ERA rank. V1 requires each bullpen to be in the top 10 (#1–#10).
Observed
#11
V1 requirement
Top 10 (#1–#10)
home_bullpen_era_rank_not_top_10

Duel Filter V1 · v1.0.0Evaluated Aug 20, 9:54 AM CDTInputs updated Aug 20, 9:54 AM CDTMLB 824153