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Duel Filter V1 · Daily research cohort

Suppression Candidates

The original pitcher-duel hypothesis, evaluated with immutable point-in-time starter and bullpen snapshots.

Research benchmark only · A cohort match is not a betting recommendation

Evaluated11

V1 matches0

Rejected8

Incomplete3

Point-in-time audit

Daily evaluations

Private source connected

Aug 17, 12:40 PM CDTGreat American Ball Park

Incomplete data

Away

St. Louis Cardinals

Starter not linkedunknown

xERA: —
K-BB%: —
Bullpen: #20

Pitcher stats through not available

Home

Cincinnati Reds

Starter not linkedunknown

xERA: —
K-BB%: —
Bullpen: #25

Pitcher stats through not available

Incomplete data

No pass/fail conclusion was made because required point-in-time evidence was missing.

Missing point-in-time inputs

St. Louis Cardinals starterxERA
No point-in-time xERA snapshot was linked for St. Louis Cardinals starter when this evaluation ran. V1 did not infer a replacement value.
Observed
Missing at evaluation
V1 requirement
Below 3.25
missing_away_starter_xera
Cincinnati Reds starterxERA
No point-in-time xERA snapshot was linked for Cincinnati Reds starter when this evaluation ran. V1 did not infer a replacement value.
Observed
Missing at evaluation
V1 requirement
Below 3.25
missing_home_starter_xera
St. Louis Cardinals starterK-BB%
No point-in-time K-BB% snapshot was linked for St. Louis Cardinals starter when this evaluation ran. V1 did not infer a replacement value.
Observed
Missing at evaluation
V1 requirement
Above 18.0%
missing_away_starter_k_minus_bb
Cincinnati Reds starterK-BB%
No point-in-time K-BB% snapshot was linked for Cincinnati Reds starter when this evaluation ran. V1 did not infer a replacement value.
Observed
Missing at evaluation
V1 requirement
Above 18.0%
missing_home_starter_k_minus_bb

Duel Filter V1 · v1.0.0Evaluated Aug 17, 9:44 AM CDTInputs updated Aug 17, 9:44 AM CDTMLB 824514

Aug 17, 5:05 PM CDTTropicana Field

Does not match

Away

Baltimore Orioles

Brandon Youngprobable

xERA: 4.17
K-BB%: 10.7%
Bullpen: #17

Pitcher stats through 2026-08-17

Home

Tampa Bay Rays

Shane McClanahanprobable

xERA: 4.11
K-BB%: 13.7%
Bullpen: #17

Pitcher stats through 2026-08-17

Does not match

The evaluation was complete, but one or more immutable V1 thresholds did not pass.

Thresholds not met

Brandon YoungxERA
Brandon Young recorded a 4.17 xERA. V1 requires each starter to be below 3.25.
Observed
4.17
V1 requirement
Below 3.25
Exactly 3.25 does not pass this V1 rule.
away_starter_xera_not_below_3_25
Shane McClanahanxERA
Shane McClanahan recorded a 4.11 xERA. V1 requires each starter to be below 3.25.
Observed
4.11
V1 requirement
Below 3.25
Exactly 3.25 does not pass this V1 rule.
home_starter_xera_not_below_3_25
Brandon YoungK-BB%
Brandon Young recorded a 10.7% K-BB%. V1 requires each starter to be above 18.0%.
Observed
10.7%
V1 requirement
Above 18.0%
Exactly 18.0% does not pass this V1 rule.
away_starter_k_minus_bb_not_above_18pct
Shane McClanahanK-BB%
Shane McClanahan recorded a 13.7% K-BB%. V1 requires each starter to be above 18.0%.
Observed
13.7%
V1 requirement
Above 18.0%
Exactly 18.0% does not pass this V1 rule.
home_starter_k_minus_bb_not_above_18pct
Baltimore Orioles bullpenBullpen ERA rank
Baltimore Orioles bullpen recorded a #17 ERA rank. V1 requires each bullpen to be in the top 10 (#1–#10).
Observed
#17
V1 requirement
Top 10 (#1–#10)
away_bullpen_era_rank_not_top_10
Tampa Bay Rays bullpenBullpen ERA rank
Tampa Bay Rays bullpen recorded a #17 ERA rank. V1 requires each bullpen to be in the top 10 (#1–#10).
Observed
#17
V1 requirement
Top 10 (#1–#10)
home_bullpen_era_rank_not_top_10

Duel Filter V1 · v1.0.0Evaluated Aug 17, 9:44 AM CDTInputs updated Aug 17, 9:44 AM CDTMLB 822939

Aug 17, 5:40 PM CDTGreat American Ball Park

Incomplete data

Away

St. Louis Cardinals

Starter not linkedunknown

xERA: —
K-BB%: —
Bullpen: #20

Pitcher stats through not available

Home

Cincinnati Reds

Rhett Lowderprobable

xERA: 5.22
K-BB%: 8.7%
Bullpen: #25

Pitcher stats through 2026-08-17

Incomplete data

No pass/fail conclusion was made because required point-in-time evidence was missing.

Missing point-in-time inputs

St. Louis Cardinals starterxERA
No point-in-time xERA snapshot was linked for St. Louis Cardinals starter when this evaluation ran. V1 did not infer a replacement value.
Observed
Missing at evaluation
V1 requirement
Below 3.25
missing_away_starter_xera
St. Louis Cardinals starterK-BB%
No point-in-time K-BB% snapshot was linked for St. Louis Cardinals starter when this evaluation ran. V1 did not infer a replacement value.
Observed
Missing at evaluation
V1 requirement
Above 18.0%
missing_away_starter_k_minus_bb

Duel Filter V1 · v1.0.0Evaluated Aug 17, 9:44 AM CDTInputs updated Aug 17, 9:44 AM CDTMLB 824478

Aug 17, 5:40 PM CDTCitizens Bank Park

Does not match

Away

Miami Marlins

Janson Junkprobable

xERA: 4.11
K-BB%: 10.7%
Bullpen: #11

Pitcher stats through 2026-08-17

Home

Philadelphia Phillies

Cristopher Sánchezprobable

xERA: 3.32
K-BB%: 22.6%
Bullpen: #23

Pitcher stats through 2026-08-17

Does not match

The evaluation was complete, but one or more immutable V1 thresholds did not pass.

Thresholds not met

Janson JunkxERA
Janson Junk recorded a 4.11 xERA. V1 requires each starter to be below 3.25.
Observed
4.11
V1 requirement
Below 3.25
Exactly 3.25 does not pass this V1 rule.
away_starter_xera_not_below_3_25
Cristopher SánchezxERA
Cristopher Sánchez recorded a 3.32 xERA. V1 requires each starter to be below 3.25.
Observed
3.32
V1 requirement
Below 3.25
Exactly 3.25 does not pass this V1 rule.
home_starter_xera_not_below_3_25
Janson JunkK-BB%
Janson Junk recorded a 10.7% K-BB%. V1 requires each starter to be above 18.0%.
Observed
10.7%
V1 requirement
Above 18.0%
Exactly 18.0% does not pass this V1 rule.
away_starter_k_minus_bb_not_above_18pct
Miami Marlins bullpenBullpen ERA rank
Miami Marlins bullpen recorded a #11 ERA rank. V1 requires each bullpen to be in the top 10 (#1–#10).
Observed
#11
V1 requirement
Top 10 (#1–#10)
away_bullpen_era_rank_not_top_10
Philadelphia Phillies bullpenBullpen ERA rank
Philadelphia Phillies bullpen recorded a #23 ERA rank. V1 requires each bullpen to be in the top 10 (#1–#10).
Observed
#23
V1 requirement
Top 10 (#1–#10)
home_bullpen_era_rank_not_top_10

Duel Filter V1 · v1.0.0Evaluated Aug 17, 9:44 AM CDTInputs updated Aug 17, 9:44 AM CDTMLB 823427

Aug 17, 6:05 PM CDTPNC Park

Does not match

Away

Detroit Tigers

Framber Valdezprobable

xERA: 4.38
K-BB%: 9.5%
Bullpen: #8

Pitcher stats through 2026-08-17

Home

Pittsburgh Pirates

Carmen Mlodzinskiprobable

xERA: 5.15
K-BB%: 9.9%
Bullpen: #19

Pitcher stats through 2026-08-17

Does not match

The evaluation was complete, but one or more immutable V1 thresholds did not pass.

Thresholds not met

Framber ValdezxERA
Framber Valdez recorded a 4.38 xERA. V1 requires each starter to be below 3.25.
Observed
4.38
V1 requirement
Below 3.25
Exactly 3.25 does not pass this V1 rule.
away_starter_xera_not_below_3_25
Carmen MlodzinskixERA
Carmen Mlodzinski recorded a 5.15 xERA. V1 requires each starter to be below 3.25.
Observed
5.15
V1 requirement
Below 3.25
Exactly 3.25 does not pass this V1 rule.
home_starter_xera_not_below_3_25
Framber ValdezK-BB%
Framber Valdez recorded a 9.5% K-BB%. V1 requires each starter to be above 18.0%.
Observed
9.5%
V1 requirement
Above 18.0%
Exactly 18.0% does not pass this V1 rule.
away_starter_k_minus_bb_not_above_18pct
Carmen MlodzinskiK-BB%
Carmen Mlodzinski recorded a 9.9% K-BB%. V1 requires each starter to be above 18.0%.
Observed
9.9%
V1 requirement
Above 18.0%
Exactly 18.0% does not pass this V1 rule.
home_starter_k_minus_bb_not_above_18pct
Pittsburgh Pirates bullpenBullpen ERA rank
Pittsburgh Pirates bullpen recorded a #19 ERA rank. V1 requires each bullpen to be in the top 10 (#1–#10).
Observed
#19
V1 requirement
Top 10 (#1–#10)
home_bullpen_era_rank_not_top_10

Duel Filter V1 · v1.0.0Evaluated Aug 17, 9:44 AM CDTInputs updated Aug 17, 9:44 AM CDTMLB 823343

Aug 17, 6:10 PM CDTFenway Park

Incomplete data

Away

Arizona Diamondbacks

Mitch Brattprobable

xERA: 3.78
K-BB%: 4.2%
Bullpen: #16

Pitcher stats through 2026-08-17

Home

Boston Red Sox

Starter not linkedunknown

xERA: —
K-BB%: —
Bullpen: #1

Pitcher stats through not available

Incomplete data

No pass/fail conclusion was made because required point-in-time evidence was missing.

Missing point-in-time inputs

Boston Red Sox starterxERA
No point-in-time xERA snapshot was linked for Boston Red Sox starter when this evaluation ran. V1 did not infer a replacement value.
Observed
Missing at evaluation
V1 requirement
Below 3.25
missing_home_starter_xera
Boston Red Sox starterK-BB%
No point-in-time K-BB% snapshot was linked for Boston Red Sox starter when this evaluation ran. V1 did not infer a replacement value.
Observed
Missing at evaluation
V1 requirement
Above 18.0%
missing_home_starter_k_minus_bb

Duel Filter V1 · v1.0.0Evaluated Aug 17, 9:44 AM CDTInputs updated Aug 17, 9:44 AM CDTMLB 824725

Aug 17, 6:10 PM CDTCiti Field

Does not match

Away

San Diego Padres

Walker Buehlerprobable

xERA: 4.35
K-BB%: 10.7%
Bullpen: #5

Pitcher stats through 2026-08-17

Home

New York Mets

Nolan McLeanprobable

xERA: 3.62
K-BB%: 19.2%
Bullpen: #6

Pitcher stats through 2026-08-17

Does not match

The evaluation was complete, but one or more immutable V1 thresholds did not pass.

Thresholds not met

Walker BuehlerxERA
Walker Buehler recorded a 4.35 xERA. V1 requires each starter to be below 3.25.
Observed
4.35
V1 requirement
Below 3.25
Exactly 3.25 does not pass this V1 rule.
away_starter_xera_not_below_3_25
Nolan McLeanxERA
Nolan McLean recorded a 3.62 xERA. V1 requires each starter to be below 3.25.
Observed
3.62
V1 requirement
Below 3.25
Exactly 3.25 does not pass this V1 rule.
home_starter_xera_not_below_3_25
Walker BuehlerK-BB%
Walker Buehler recorded a 10.7% K-BB%. V1 requires each starter to be above 18.0%.
Observed
10.7%
V1 requirement
Above 18.0%
Exactly 18.0% does not pass this V1 rule.
away_starter_k_minus_bb_not_above_18pct

Duel Filter V1 · v1.0.0Evaluated Aug 17, 9:44 AM CDTInputs updated Aug 17, 9:44 AM CDTMLB 823589

Aug 17, 6:40 PM CDTKauffman Stadium

Does not match

Away

Athletics

Mason Barnettprobable

xERA: 4.82
K-BB%: 9.6%
Bullpen: #30

Pitcher stats through 2026-08-17

Home

Kansas City Royals

Michael Wachaprobable

xERA: 4.09
K-BB%: 12.4%
Bullpen: #29

Pitcher stats through 2026-08-17

Does not match

The evaluation was complete, but one or more immutable V1 thresholds did not pass.

Thresholds not met

Mason BarnettxERA
Mason Barnett recorded a 4.82 xERA. V1 requires each starter to be below 3.25.
Observed
4.82
V1 requirement
Below 3.25
Exactly 3.25 does not pass this V1 rule.
away_starter_xera_not_below_3_25
Michael WachaxERA
Michael Wacha recorded a 4.09 xERA. V1 requires each starter to be below 3.25.
Observed
4.09
V1 requirement
Below 3.25
Exactly 3.25 does not pass this V1 rule.
home_starter_xera_not_below_3_25
Mason BarnettK-BB%
Mason Barnett recorded a 9.6% K-BB%. V1 requires each starter to be above 18.0%.
Observed
9.6%
V1 requirement
Above 18.0%
Exactly 18.0% does not pass this V1 rule.
away_starter_k_minus_bb_not_above_18pct
Michael WachaK-BB%
Michael Wacha recorded a 12.4% K-BB%. V1 requires each starter to be above 18.0%.
Observed
12.4%
V1 requirement
Above 18.0%
Exactly 18.0% does not pass this V1 rule.
home_starter_k_minus_bb_not_above_18pct
Athletics bullpenBullpen ERA rank
Athletics bullpen recorded a #30 ERA rank. V1 requires each bullpen to be in the top 10 (#1–#10).
Observed
#30
V1 requirement
Top 10 (#1–#10)
away_bullpen_era_rank_not_top_10
Kansas City Royals bullpenBullpen ERA rank
Kansas City Royals bullpen recorded a #29 ERA rank. V1 requires each bullpen to be in the top 10 (#1–#10).
Observed
#29
V1 requirement
Top 10 (#1–#10)
home_bullpen_era_rank_not_top_10

Duel Filter V1 · v1.0.0Evaluated Aug 17, 9:44 AM CDTInputs updated Aug 17, 9:44 AM CDTMLB 824077

Aug 17, 6:40 PM CDTTarget Field

Does not match

Away

Atlanta Braves

Martín Pérezprobable

xERA: 4.29
K-BB%: 8.6%
Bullpen: #4

Pitcher stats through 2026-08-17

Home

Minnesota Twins

Bailey Oberprobable

xERA: 4.72
K-BB%: 10.1%
Bullpen: #26

Pitcher stats through 2026-08-17

Does not match

The evaluation was complete, but one or more immutable V1 thresholds did not pass.

Thresholds not met

Martín PérezxERA
Martín Pérez recorded a 4.29 xERA. V1 requires each starter to be below 3.25.
Observed
4.29
V1 requirement
Below 3.25
Exactly 3.25 does not pass this V1 rule.
away_starter_xera_not_below_3_25
Bailey OberxERA
Bailey Ober recorded a 4.72 xERA. V1 requires each starter to be below 3.25.
Observed
4.72
V1 requirement
Below 3.25
Exactly 3.25 does not pass this V1 rule.
home_starter_xera_not_below_3_25
Martín PérezK-BB%
Martín Pérez recorded a 8.6% K-BB%. V1 requires each starter to be above 18.0%.
Observed
8.6%
V1 requirement
Above 18.0%
Exactly 18.0% does not pass this V1 rule.
away_starter_k_minus_bb_not_above_18pct
Bailey OberK-BB%
Bailey Ober recorded a 10.1% K-BB%. V1 requires each starter to be above 18.0%.
Observed
10.1%
V1 requirement
Above 18.0%
Exactly 18.0% does not pass this V1 rule.
home_starter_k_minus_bb_not_above_18pct
Minnesota Twins bullpenBullpen ERA rank
Minnesota Twins bullpen recorded a #26 ERA rank. V1 requires each bullpen to be in the top 10 (#1–#10).
Observed
#26
V1 requirement
Top 10 (#1–#10)
home_bullpen_era_rank_not_top_10

Duel Filter V1 · v1.0.0Evaluated Aug 17, 9:44 AM CDTInputs updated Aug 17, 9:44 AM CDTMLB 823668

Aug 17, 7:05 PM CDTWrigley Field

Does not match

Away

Chicago White Sox

Luis Castilloprobable

xERA: 4.63
K-BB%: 13.6%
Bullpen: #9

Pitcher stats through 2026-08-17

Home

Chicago Cubs

Shota Imanagaprobable

xERA: 3.81
K-BB%: 18.2%
Bullpen: #10

Pitcher stats through 2026-08-17

Does not match

The evaluation was complete, but one or more immutable V1 thresholds did not pass.

Thresholds not met

Luis CastilloxERA
Luis Castillo recorded a 4.63 xERA. V1 requires each starter to be below 3.25.
Observed
4.63
V1 requirement
Below 3.25
Exactly 3.25 does not pass this V1 rule.
away_starter_xera_not_below_3_25
Shota ImanagaxERA
Shota Imanaga recorded a 3.81 xERA. V1 requires each starter to be below 3.25.
Observed
3.81
V1 requirement
Below 3.25
Exactly 3.25 does not pass this V1 rule.
home_starter_xera_not_below_3_25
Luis CastilloK-BB%
Luis Castillo recorded a 13.6% K-BB%. V1 requires each starter to be above 18.0%.
Observed
13.6%
V1 requirement
Above 18.0%
Exactly 18.0% does not pass this V1 rule.
away_starter_k_minus_bb_not_above_18pct

Duel Filter V1 · v1.0.0Evaluated Aug 17, 9:44 AM CDTInputs updated Aug 17, 9:44 AM CDTMLB 824641

Aug 17, 7:40 PM CDTCoors Field

Does not match

Away

Los Angeles Dodgers

Blake Snellprobable

xERA: 2.34
K-BB%: 30.0%
Bullpen: #15

Pitcher stats through 2026-08-17

Home

Colorado Rockies

Tomoyuki Suganoprobable

xERA: 6.93
K-BB%: 8.4%
Bullpen: #27

Pitcher stats through 2026-08-17

Does not match

The evaluation was complete, but one or more immutable V1 thresholds did not pass.

Thresholds not met

Tomoyuki SuganoxERA
Tomoyuki Sugano recorded a 6.93 xERA. V1 requires each starter to be below 3.25.
Observed
6.93
V1 requirement
Below 3.25
Exactly 3.25 does not pass this V1 rule.
home_starter_xera_not_below_3_25
Tomoyuki SuganoK-BB%
Tomoyuki Sugano recorded a 8.4% K-BB%. V1 requires each starter to be above 18.0%.
Observed
8.4%
V1 requirement
Above 18.0%
Exactly 18.0% does not pass this V1 rule.
home_starter_k_minus_bb_not_above_18pct
Los Angeles Dodgers bullpenBullpen ERA rank
Los Angeles Dodgers bullpen recorded a #15 ERA rank. V1 requires each bullpen to be in the top 10 (#1–#10).
Observed
#15
V1 requirement
Top 10 (#1–#10)
away_bullpen_era_rank_not_top_10
Colorado Rockies bullpenBullpen ERA rank
Colorado Rockies bullpen recorded a #27 ERA rank. V1 requires each bullpen to be in the top 10 (#1–#10).
Observed
#27
V1 requirement
Top 10 (#1–#10)
home_bullpen_era_rank_not_top_10

Duel Filter V1 · v1.0.0Evaluated Aug 17, 9:44 AM CDTInputs updated Aug 17, 9:44 AM CDTMLB 824320