Daily Research Board →Forward Validation →

Duel Filter V1 · Daily research cohort

Suppression Candidates

The original pitcher-duel hypothesis, evaluated with immutable point-in-time starter and bullpen snapshots.

Research benchmark only · A cohort match is not a betting recommendation

Evaluated9

V1 matches0

Rejected9

Incomplete0

Point-in-time audit

Daily evaluations

Private source connected

Aug 13, 12:10 PM CDTComerica Park

Does not match

Away

Cleveland Guardians

Parker Messickprobable

xERA: 3.08
K-BB%: 18.1%
Bullpen: #14

Pitcher stats through 2026-08-13

Home

Detroit Tigers

Keider Monteroprobable

xERA: 3.52
K-BB%: 11.8%
Bullpen: #6

Pitcher stats through 2026-08-13

Does not match

The evaluation was complete, but one or more immutable V1 thresholds did not pass.

Thresholds not met

Keider MonteroxERA
Keider Montero recorded a 3.52 xERA. V1 requires each starter to be below 3.25.
Observed
3.52
V1 requirement
Below 3.25
Exactly 3.25 does not pass this V1 rule.
home_starter_xera_not_below_3_25
Keider MonteroK-BB%
Keider Montero recorded a 11.8% K-BB%. V1 requires each starter to be above 18.0%.
Observed
11.8%
V1 requirement
Above 18.0%
Exactly 18.0% does not pass this V1 rule.
home_starter_k_minus_bb_not_above_18pct
Cleveland Guardians bullpenBullpen ERA rank
Cleveland Guardians bullpen recorded a #14 ERA rank. V1 requires each bullpen to be in the top 10 (#1–#10).
Observed
#14
V1 requirement
Top 10 (#1–#10)
away_bullpen_era_rank_not_top_10

Duel Filter V1 · v1.0.0Evaluated Aug 13, 10:14 AM CDTInputs updated Aug 13, 10:14 AM CDTMLB 824238

Aug 13, 12:10 PM CDTloanDepot park

Does not match

Away

Pittsburgh Pirates

Braxton Ashcraftprobable

xERA: 3.44
K-BB%: 20.7%
Bullpen: #19

Pitcher stats through 2026-08-13

Home

Miami Marlins

Tyler Phillipsprobable

xERA: 4.95
K-BB%: 7.7%
Bullpen: #8

Pitcher stats through 2026-08-13

Does not match

The evaluation was complete, but one or more immutable V1 thresholds did not pass.

Thresholds not met

Braxton AshcraftxERA
Braxton Ashcraft recorded a 3.44 xERA. V1 requires each starter to be below 3.25.
Observed
3.44
V1 requirement
Below 3.25
Exactly 3.25 does not pass this V1 rule.
away_starter_xera_not_below_3_25
Tyler PhillipsxERA
Tyler Phillips recorded a 4.95 xERA. V1 requires each starter to be below 3.25.
Observed
4.95
V1 requirement
Below 3.25
Exactly 3.25 does not pass this V1 rule.
home_starter_xera_not_below_3_25
Tyler PhillipsK-BB%
Tyler Phillips recorded a 7.7% K-BB%. V1 requires each starter to be above 18.0%.
Observed
7.7%
V1 requirement
Above 18.0%
Exactly 18.0% does not pass this V1 rule.
home_starter_k_minus_bb_not_above_18pct
Pittsburgh Pirates bullpenBullpen ERA rank
Pittsburgh Pirates bullpen recorded a #19 ERA rank. V1 requires each bullpen to be in the top 10 (#1–#10).
Observed
#19
V1 requirement
Top 10 (#1–#10)
away_bullpen_era_rank_not_top_10

Duel Filter V1 · v1.0.0Evaluated Aug 13, 10:14 AM CDTInputs updated Aug 13, 10:14 AM CDTMLB 823829

Aug 13, 12:10 PM CDTRate Field

Does not match

Away

Cincinnati Reds

Andrew Abbottprobable

xERA: 4.72
K-BB%: 6.8%
Bullpen: #25

Pitcher stats through 2026-08-13

Home

Chicago White Sox

Davis Martinprobable

xERA: 4.66
K-BB%: 13.5%
Bullpen: #10

Pitcher stats through 2026-08-13

Does not match

The evaluation was complete, but one or more immutable V1 thresholds did not pass.

Thresholds not met

Andrew AbbottxERA
Andrew Abbott recorded a 4.72 xERA. V1 requires each starter to be below 3.25.
Observed
4.72
V1 requirement
Below 3.25
Exactly 3.25 does not pass this V1 rule.
away_starter_xera_not_below_3_25
Davis MartinxERA
Davis Martin recorded a 4.66 xERA. V1 requires each starter to be below 3.25.
Observed
4.66
V1 requirement
Below 3.25
Exactly 3.25 does not pass this V1 rule.
home_starter_xera_not_below_3_25
Andrew AbbottK-BB%
Andrew Abbott recorded a 6.8% K-BB%. V1 requires each starter to be above 18.0%.
Observed
6.8%
V1 requirement
Above 18.0%
Exactly 18.0% does not pass this V1 rule.
away_starter_k_minus_bb_not_above_18pct
Davis MartinK-BB%
Davis Martin recorded a 13.5% K-BB%. V1 requires each starter to be above 18.0%.
Observed
13.5%
V1 requirement
Above 18.0%
Exactly 18.0% does not pass this V1 rule.
home_starter_k_minus_bb_not_above_18pct
Cincinnati Reds bullpenBullpen ERA rank
Cincinnati Reds bullpen recorded a #25 ERA rank. V1 requires each bullpen to be in the top 10 (#1–#10).
Observed
#25
V1 requirement
Top 10 (#1–#10)
away_bullpen_era_rank_not_top_10

Duel Filter V1 · v1.0.0Evaluated Aug 13, 10:14 AM CDTInputs updated Aug 13, 10:14 AM CDTMLB 824561

Aug 13, 12:35 PM CDTYankee Stadium

Does not match

Away

Seattle Mariners

Logan Gilbertprobable

xERA: 3.73
K-BB%: 20.6%
Bullpen: #13

Pitcher stats through 2026-08-13

Home

New York Yankees

Max Friedprobable

xERA: 2.38
K-BB%: 16.0%
Bullpen: #2

Pitcher stats through 2026-08-13

Does not match

The evaluation was complete, but one or more immutable V1 thresholds did not pass.

Thresholds not met

Logan GilbertxERA
Logan Gilbert recorded a 3.73 xERA. V1 requires each starter to be below 3.25.
Observed
3.73
V1 requirement
Below 3.25
Exactly 3.25 does not pass this V1 rule.
away_starter_xera_not_below_3_25
Max FriedK-BB%
Max Fried recorded a 16.0% K-BB%. V1 requires each starter to be above 18.0%.
Observed
16.0%
V1 requirement
Above 18.0%
Exactly 18.0% does not pass this V1 rule.
home_starter_k_minus_bb_not_above_18pct
Seattle Mariners bullpenBullpen ERA rank
Seattle Mariners bullpen recorded a #13 ERA rank. V1 requires each bullpen to be in the top 10 (#1–#10).
Observed
#13
V1 requirement
Top 10 (#1–#10)
away_bullpen_era_rank_not_top_10

Duel Filter V1 · v1.0.0Evaluated Aug 13, 10:14 AM CDTInputs updated Aug 13, 10:14 AM CDTMLB 823508

Aug 13, 2:07 PM CDTRogers Centre

Does not match

Away

Boston Red Sox

Payton Tolleprobable

xERA: 2.81
K-BB%: 21.8%
Bullpen: #1

Pitcher stats through 2026-08-13

Home

Toronto Blue Jays

Max Scherzerprobable

xERA: 5.43
K-BB%: 7.5%
Bullpen: #6

Pitcher stats through 2026-08-13

Does not match

The evaluation was complete, but one or more immutable V1 thresholds did not pass.

Thresholds not met

Max ScherzerxERA
Max Scherzer recorded a 5.43 xERA. V1 requires each starter to be below 3.25.
Observed
5.43
V1 requirement
Below 3.25
Exactly 3.25 does not pass this V1 rule.
home_starter_xera_not_below_3_25
Max ScherzerK-BB%
Max Scherzer recorded a 7.5% K-BB%. V1 requires each starter to be above 18.0%.
Observed
7.5%
V1 requirement
Above 18.0%
Exactly 18.0% does not pass this V1 rule.
home_starter_k_minus_bb_not_above_18pct

Duel Filter V1 · v1.0.0Evaluated Aug 13, 10:14 AM CDTInputs updated Aug 13, 10:14 AM CDTMLB 822776

Aug 13, 3:05 PM CDTNationals Park

Does not match

Away

Chicago Cubs

Kevin Gausmanprobable

xERA: 3.84
K-BB%: 16.6%
Bullpen: #11

Pitcher stats through 2026-08-13

Home

Washington Nationals

Cade Cavalliprobable

xERA: 4.12
K-BB%: 18.5%
Bullpen: #27

Pitcher stats through 2026-08-13

Does not match

The evaluation was complete, but one or more immutable V1 thresholds did not pass.

Thresholds not met

Kevin GausmanxERA
Kevin Gausman recorded a 3.84 xERA. V1 requires each starter to be below 3.25.
Observed
3.84
V1 requirement
Below 3.25
Exactly 3.25 does not pass this V1 rule.
away_starter_xera_not_below_3_25
Cade CavallixERA
Cade Cavalli recorded a 4.12 xERA. V1 requires each starter to be below 3.25.
Observed
4.12
V1 requirement
Below 3.25
Exactly 3.25 does not pass this V1 rule.
home_starter_xera_not_below_3_25
Kevin GausmanK-BB%
Kevin Gausman recorded a 16.6% K-BB%. V1 requires each starter to be above 18.0%.
Observed
16.6%
V1 requirement
Above 18.0%
Exactly 18.0% does not pass this V1 rule.
away_starter_k_minus_bb_not_above_18pct
Chicago Cubs bullpenBullpen ERA rank
Chicago Cubs bullpen recorded a #11 ERA rank. V1 requires each bullpen to be in the top 10 (#1–#10).
Observed
#11
V1 requirement
Top 10 (#1–#10)
away_bullpen_era_rank_not_top_10
Washington Nationals bullpenBullpen ERA rank
Washington Nationals bullpen recorded a #27 ERA rank. V1 requires each bullpen to be in the top 10 (#1–#10).
Observed
#27
V1 requirement
Top 10 (#1–#10)
home_bullpen_era_rank_not_top_10

Duel Filter V1 · v1.0.0Evaluated Aug 13, 10:14 AM CDTInputs updated Aug 13, 10:14 AM CDTMLB 822696

Aug 13, 6:30 PM CDTField of Dreams

Does not match

Away

Philadelphia Phillies

Aaron Nolaprobable

xERA: 4.26
K-BB%: 15.8%
Bullpen: #24

Pitcher stats through 2026-08-13

Home

Minnesota Twins

Taj Bradleyprobable

xERA: 3.89
K-BB%: 16.7%
Bullpen: #26

Pitcher stats through 2026-08-13

Does not match

The evaluation was complete, but one or more immutable V1 thresholds did not pass.

Thresholds not met

Aaron NolaxERA
Aaron Nola recorded a 4.26 xERA. V1 requires each starter to be below 3.25.
Observed
4.26
V1 requirement
Below 3.25
Exactly 3.25 does not pass this V1 rule.
away_starter_xera_not_below_3_25
Taj BradleyxERA
Taj Bradley recorded a 3.89 xERA. V1 requires each starter to be below 3.25.
Observed
3.89
V1 requirement
Below 3.25
Exactly 3.25 does not pass this V1 rule.
home_starter_xera_not_below_3_25
Aaron NolaK-BB%
Aaron Nola recorded a 15.8% K-BB%. V1 requires each starter to be above 18.0%.
Observed
15.8%
V1 requirement
Above 18.0%
Exactly 18.0% does not pass this V1 rule.
away_starter_k_minus_bb_not_above_18pct
Taj BradleyK-BB%
Taj Bradley recorded a 16.7% K-BB%. V1 requires each starter to be above 18.0%.
Observed
16.7%
V1 requirement
Above 18.0%
Exactly 18.0% does not pass this V1 rule.
home_starter_k_minus_bb_not_above_18pct
Philadelphia Phillies bullpenBullpen ERA rank
Philadelphia Phillies bullpen recorded a #24 ERA rank. V1 requires each bullpen to be in the top 10 (#1–#10).
Observed
#24
V1 requirement
Top 10 (#1–#10)
away_bullpen_era_rank_not_top_10
Minnesota Twins bullpenBullpen ERA rank
Minnesota Twins bullpen recorded a #26 ERA rank. V1 requires each bullpen to be in the top 10 (#1–#10).
Observed
#26
V1 requirement
Top 10 (#1–#10)
home_bullpen_era_rank_not_top_10

Duel Filter V1 · v1.0.0Evaluated Aug 13, 10:14 AM CDTInputs updated Aug 13, 10:14 AM CDTMLB 823669

Aug 13, 9:07 PM CDTAngel Stadium

Does not match

Away

Texas Rangers

Jacob deGromprobable

xERA: 3.60
K-BB%: 23.5%
Bullpen: #20

Pitcher stats through 2026-08-13

Home

Los Angeles Angels

Walbert Ureñaprobable

xERA: 3.39
K-BB%: 9.6%
Bullpen: #23

Pitcher stats through 2026-08-13

Does not match

The evaluation was complete, but one or more immutable V1 thresholds did not pass.

Thresholds not met

Jacob deGromxERA
Jacob deGrom recorded a 3.60 xERA. V1 requires each starter to be below 3.25.
Observed
3.60
V1 requirement
Below 3.25
Exactly 3.25 does not pass this V1 rule.
away_starter_xera_not_below_3_25
Walbert UreñaxERA
Walbert Ureña recorded a 3.39 xERA. V1 requires each starter to be below 3.25.
Observed
3.39
V1 requirement
Below 3.25
Exactly 3.25 does not pass this V1 rule.
home_starter_xera_not_below_3_25
Walbert UreñaK-BB%
Walbert Ureña recorded a 9.6% K-BB%. V1 requires each starter to be above 18.0%.
Observed
9.6%
V1 requirement
Above 18.0%
Exactly 18.0% does not pass this V1 rule.
home_starter_k_minus_bb_not_above_18pct
Texas Rangers bullpenBullpen ERA rank
Texas Rangers bullpen recorded a #20 ERA rank. V1 requires each bullpen to be in the top 10 (#1–#10).
Observed
#20
V1 requirement
Top 10 (#1–#10)
away_bullpen_era_rank_not_top_10
Los Angeles Angels bullpenBullpen ERA rank
Los Angeles Angels bullpen recorded a #23 ERA rank. V1 requires each bullpen to be in the top 10 (#1–#10).
Observed
#23
V1 requirement
Top 10 (#1–#10)
home_bullpen_era_rank_not_top_10

Duel Filter V1 · v1.0.0Evaluated Aug 13, 10:14 AM CDTInputs updated Aug 13, 10:14 AM CDTMLB 823995

Aug 13, 9:10 PM CDTUNIQLO Field at Dodger Stadium

Does not match

Away

Milwaukee Brewers

Shane Drohanprobable

xERA: 3.52
K-BB%: 16.7%
Bullpen: #4

Pitcher stats through 2026-08-13

Home

Los Angeles Dodgers

Roki Sasakiprobable

xERA: 4.18
K-BB%: 14.8%
Bullpen: #15

Pitcher stats through 2026-08-13

Does not match

The evaluation was complete, but one or more immutable V1 thresholds did not pass.

Thresholds not met

Shane DrohanxERA
Shane Drohan recorded a 3.52 xERA. V1 requires each starter to be below 3.25.
Observed
3.52
V1 requirement
Below 3.25
Exactly 3.25 does not pass this V1 rule.
away_starter_xera_not_below_3_25
Roki SasakixERA
Roki Sasaki recorded a 4.18 xERA. V1 requires each starter to be below 3.25.
Observed
4.18
V1 requirement
Below 3.25
Exactly 3.25 does not pass this V1 rule.
home_starter_xera_not_below_3_25
Shane DrohanK-BB%
Shane Drohan recorded a 16.7% K-BB%. V1 requires each starter to be above 18.0%.
Observed
16.7%
V1 requirement
Above 18.0%
Exactly 18.0% does not pass this V1 rule.
away_starter_k_minus_bb_not_above_18pct
Roki SasakiK-BB%
Roki Sasaki recorded a 14.8% K-BB%. V1 requires each starter to be above 18.0%.
Observed
14.8%
V1 requirement
Above 18.0%
Exactly 18.0% does not pass this V1 rule.
home_starter_k_minus_bb_not_above_18pct
Los Angeles Dodgers bullpenBullpen ERA rank
Los Angeles Dodgers bullpen recorded a #15 ERA rank. V1 requires each bullpen to be in the top 10 (#1–#10).
Observed
#15
V1 requirement
Top 10 (#1–#10)
home_bullpen_era_rank_not_top_10

Duel Filter V1 · v1.0.0Evaluated Aug 13, 10:14 AM CDTInputs updated Aug 13, 10:14 AM CDTMLB 823915