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Duel Filter V1 · Daily research cohort

Suppression Candidates

The original pitcher-duel hypothesis, evaluated with immutable point-in-time starter and bullpen snapshots.

Research benchmark only · A cohort match is not a betting recommendation

Evaluated10

V1 matches0

Rejected10

Incomplete0

Point-in-time audit

Daily evaluations

Private source connected

Aug 10, 6:07 PM CDTRogers Centre

Does not match

Away

Boston Red Sox

Sonny Grayprobable

xERA: 3.70
K-BB%: 15.3%
Bullpen: #1

Pitcher stats through 2026-08-10

Home

Toronto Blue Jays

Jameson Taillonprobable

xERA: 6.07
K-BB%: 12.4%
Bullpen: #8

Pitcher stats through 2026-08-10

Does not match

The evaluation was complete, but one or more immutable V1 thresholds did not pass.

Thresholds not met

Sonny GrayxERA
Sonny Gray recorded a 3.70 xERA. V1 requires each starter to be below 3.25.
Observed
3.70
V1 requirement
Below 3.25
Exactly 3.25 does not pass this V1 rule.
away_starter_xera_not_below_3_25
Jameson TaillonxERA
Jameson Taillon recorded a 6.07 xERA. V1 requires each starter to be below 3.25.
Observed
6.07
V1 requirement
Below 3.25
Exactly 3.25 does not pass this V1 rule.
home_starter_xera_not_below_3_25
Sonny GrayK-BB%
Sonny Gray recorded a 15.3% K-BB%. V1 requires each starter to be above 18.0%.
Observed
15.3%
V1 requirement
Above 18.0%
Exactly 18.0% does not pass this V1 rule.
away_starter_k_minus_bb_not_above_18pct
Jameson TaillonK-BB%
Jameson Taillon recorded a 12.4% K-BB%. V1 requires each starter to be above 18.0%.
Observed
12.4%
V1 requirement
Above 18.0%
Exactly 18.0% does not pass this V1 rule.
home_starter_k_minus_bb_not_above_18pct

Duel Filter V1 · v1.0.0Evaluated Aug 10, 10:16 AM CDTInputs updated Aug 10, 10:16 AM CDTMLB 822780

Aug 10, 6:15 PM CDTTruist Park

Does not match

Away

New York Mets

Christian Scottprobable

xERA: 3.78
K-BB%: 18.8%
Bullpen: #6

Pitcher stats through 2026-08-10

Home

Atlanta Braves

Bryce Elderprobable

xERA: 3.92
K-BB%: 11.7%
Bullpen: #3

Pitcher stats through 2026-08-10

Does not match

The evaluation was complete, but one or more immutable V1 thresholds did not pass.

Thresholds not met

Christian ScottxERA
Christian Scott recorded a 3.78 xERA. V1 requires each starter to be below 3.25.
Observed
3.78
V1 requirement
Below 3.25
Exactly 3.25 does not pass this V1 rule.
away_starter_xera_not_below_3_25
Bryce ElderxERA
Bryce Elder recorded a 3.92 xERA. V1 requires each starter to be below 3.25.
Observed
3.92
V1 requirement
Below 3.25
Exactly 3.25 does not pass this V1 rule.
home_starter_xera_not_below_3_25
Bryce ElderK-BB%
Bryce Elder recorded a 11.7% K-BB%. V1 requires each starter to be above 18.0%.
Observed
11.7%
V1 requirement
Above 18.0%
Exactly 18.0% does not pass this V1 rule.
home_starter_k_minus_bb_not_above_18pct

Duel Filter V1 · v1.0.0Evaluated Aug 10, 10:16 AM CDTInputs updated Aug 10, 10:16 AM CDTMLB 824887

Aug 10, 6:40 PM CDTTarget Field

Does not match

Away

Baltimore Orioles

Trevor Rogersprobable

xERA: 3.76
K-BB%: 13.6%
Bullpen: #17

Pitcher stats through 2026-08-10

Home

Minnesota Twins

Dean Kremerprobable

xERA: 4.57
K-BB%: 15.7%
Bullpen: #26

Pitcher stats through 2026-08-10

Does not match

The evaluation was complete, but one or more immutable V1 thresholds did not pass.

Thresholds not met

Trevor RogersxERA
Trevor Rogers recorded a 3.76 xERA. V1 requires each starter to be below 3.25.
Observed
3.76
V1 requirement
Below 3.25
Exactly 3.25 does not pass this V1 rule.
away_starter_xera_not_below_3_25
Dean KremerxERA
Dean Kremer recorded a 4.57 xERA. V1 requires each starter to be below 3.25.
Observed
4.57
V1 requirement
Below 3.25
Exactly 3.25 does not pass this V1 rule.
home_starter_xera_not_below_3_25
Trevor RogersK-BB%
Trevor Rogers recorded a 13.6% K-BB%. V1 requires each starter to be above 18.0%.
Observed
13.6%
V1 requirement
Above 18.0%
Exactly 18.0% does not pass this V1 rule.
away_starter_k_minus_bb_not_above_18pct
Dean KremerK-BB%
Dean Kremer recorded a 15.7% K-BB%. V1 requires each starter to be above 18.0%.
Observed
15.7%
V1 requirement
Above 18.0%
Exactly 18.0% does not pass this V1 rule.
home_starter_k_minus_bb_not_above_18pct
Baltimore Orioles bullpenBullpen ERA rank
Baltimore Orioles bullpen recorded a #17 ERA rank. V1 requires each bullpen to be in the top 10 (#1–#10).
Observed
#17
V1 requirement
Top 10 (#1–#10)
away_bullpen_era_rank_not_top_10
Minnesota Twins bullpenBullpen ERA rank
Minnesota Twins bullpen recorded a #26 ERA rank. V1 requires each bullpen to be in the top 10 (#1–#10).
Observed
#26
V1 requirement
Top 10 (#1–#10)
home_bullpen_era_rank_not_top_10

Duel Filter V1 · v1.0.0Evaluated Aug 10, 10:16 AM CDTInputs updated Aug 10, 10:16 AM CDTMLB 823675

Aug 10, 6:45 PM CDTBusch Stadium

Does not match

Away

Philadelphia Phillies

Andrew Painterprobable

xERA: 5.15
K-BB%: 10.3%
Bullpen: #24

Pitcher stats through 2026-08-10

Home

St. Louis Cardinals

Hunter Dobbinsprobable

xERA: 3.70
K-BB%: 13.0%
Bullpen: #21

Pitcher stats through 2026-08-10

Does not match

The evaluation was complete, but one or more immutable V1 thresholds did not pass.

Thresholds not met

Andrew PainterxERA
Andrew Painter recorded a 5.15 xERA. V1 requires each starter to be below 3.25.
Observed
5.15
V1 requirement
Below 3.25
Exactly 3.25 does not pass this V1 rule.
away_starter_xera_not_below_3_25
Hunter DobbinsxERA
Hunter Dobbins recorded a 3.70 xERA. V1 requires each starter to be below 3.25.
Observed
3.70
V1 requirement
Below 3.25
Exactly 3.25 does not pass this V1 rule.
home_starter_xera_not_below_3_25
Andrew PainterK-BB%
Andrew Painter recorded a 10.3% K-BB%. V1 requires each starter to be above 18.0%.
Observed
10.3%
V1 requirement
Above 18.0%
Exactly 18.0% does not pass this V1 rule.
away_starter_k_minus_bb_not_above_18pct
Hunter DobbinsK-BB%
Hunter Dobbins recorded a 13.0% K-BB%. V1 requires each starter to be above 18.0%.
Observed
13.0%
V1 requirement
Above 18.0%
Exactly 18.0% does not pass this V1 rule.
home_starter_k_minus_bb_not_above_18pct
Philadelphia Phillies bullpenBullpen ERA rank
Philadelphia Phillies bullpen recorded a #24 ERA rank. V1 requires each bullpen to be in the top 10 (#1–#10).
Observed
#24
V1 requirement
Top 10 (#1–#10)
away_bullpen_era_rank_not_top_10
St. Louis Cardinals bullpenBullpen ERA rank
St. Louis Cardinals bullpen recorded a #21 ERA rank. V1 requires each bullpen to be in the top 10 (#1–#10).
Observed
#21
V1 requirement
Top 10 (#1–#10)
home_bullpen_era_rank_not_top_10

Duel Filter V1 · v1.0.0Evaluated Aug 10, 10:16 AM CDTInputs updated Aug 10, 10:16 AM CDTMLB 823018

Aug 10, 8:38 PM CDTAngel Stadium

Does not match

Away

Texas Rangers

MacKenzie Goreprobable

xERA: 3.84
K-BB%: 17.0%
Bullpen: #20

Pitcher stats through 2026-08-10

Home

Los Angeles Angels

Reid Detmersprobable

xERA: 3.52
K-BB%: 20.9%
Bullpen: #23

Pitcher stats through 2026-08-10

Does not match

The evaluation was complete, but one or more immutable V1 thresholds did not pass.

Thresholds not met

MacKenzie GorexERA
MacKenzie Gore recorded a 3.84 xERA. V1 requires each starter to be below 3.25.
Observed
3.84
V1 requirement
Below 3.25
Exactly 3.25 does not pass this V1 rule.
away_starter_xera_not_below_3_25
Reid DetmersxERA
Reid Detmers recorded a 3.52 xERA. V1 requires each starter to be below 3.25.
Observed
3.52
V1 requirement
Below 3.25
Exactly 3.25 does not pass this V1 rule.
home_starter_xera_not_below_3_25
MacKenzie GoreK-BB%
MacKenzie Gore recorded a 17.0% K-BB%. V1 requires each starter to be above 18.0%.
Observed
17.0%
V1 requirement
Above 18.0%
Exactly 18.0% does not pass this V1 rule.
away_starter_k_minus_bb_not_above_18pct
Texas Rangers bullpenBullpen ERA rank
Texas Rangers bullpen recorded a #20 ERA rank. V1 requires each bullpen to be in the top 10 (#1–#10).
Observed
#20
V1 requirement
Top 10 (#1–#10)
away_bullpen_era_rank_not_top_10
Los Angeles Angels bullpenBullpen ERA rank
Los Angeles Angels bullpen recorded a #23 ERA rank. V1 requires each bullpen to be in the top 10 (#1–#10).
Observed
#23
V1 requirement
Top 10 (#1–#10)
home_bullpen_era_rank_not_top_10

Duel Filter V1 · v1.0.0Evaluated Aug 10, 10:16 AM CDTInputs updated Aug 10, 10:16 AM CDTMLB 823998

Aug 10, 8:40 PM CDTChase Field

Does not match

Away

Colorado Rockies

Gabriel Hughesprobable

xERA: 2.42
K-BB%: 15.7%
Bullpen: #28

Pitcher stats through 2026-08-10

Home

Arizona Diamondbacks

Michael Sorokaprobable

xERA: 4.00
K-BB%: 18.6%
Bullpen: #18

Pitcher stats through 2026-08-10

Does not match

The evaluation was complete, but one or more immutable V1 thresholds did not pass.

Thresholds not met

Michael SorokaxERA
Michael Soroka recorded a 4.00 xERA. V1 requires each starter to be below 3.25.
Observed
4.00
V1 requirement
Below 3.25
Exactly 3.25 does not pass this V1 rule.
home_starter_xera_not_below_3_25
Gabriel HughesK-BB%
Gabriel Hughes recorded a 15.7% K-BB%. V1 requires each starter to be above 18.0%.
Observed
15.7%
V1 requirement
Above 18.0%
Exactly 18.0% does not pass this V1 rule.
away_starter_k_minus_bb_not_above_18pct
Colorado Rockies bullpenBullpen ERA rank
Colorado Rockies bullpen recorded a #28 ERA rank. V1 requires each bullpen to be in the top 10 (#1–#10).
Observed
#28
V1 requirement
Top 10 (#1–#10)
away_bullpen_era_rank_not_top_10
Arizona Diamondbacks bullpenBullpen ERA rank
Arizona Diamondbacks bullpen recorded a #18 ERA rank. V1 requires each bullpen to be in the top 10 (#1–#10).
Observed
#18
V1 requirement
Top 10 (#1–#10)
home_bullpen_era_rank_not_top_10

Duel Filter V1 · v1.0.0Evaluated Aug 10, 10:16 AM CDTInputs updated Aug 10, 10:16 AM CDTMLB 825048

Aug 10, 8:40 PM CDTSutter Health Park

Does not match

Away

Tampa Bay Rays

Freddy Peraltaprobable

xERA: 3.95
K-BB%: 12.6%
Bullpen: #13

Pitcher stats through 2026-08-10

Home

Athletics

Jacob Lopezprobable

xERA: 3.52
K-BB%: 7.8%
Bullpen: #30

Pitcher stats through 2026-08-10

Does not match

The evaluation was complete, but one or more immutable V1 thresholds did not pass.

Thresholds not met

Freddy PeraltaxERA
Freddy Peralta recorded a 3.95 xERA. V1 requires each starter to be below 3.25.
Observed
3.95
V1 requirement
Below 3.25
Exactly 3.25 does not pass this V1 rule.
away_starter_xera_not_below_3_25
Jacob LopezxERA
Jacob Lopez recorded a 3.52 xERA. V1 requires each starter to be below 3.25.
Observed
3.52
V1 requirement
Below 3.25
Exactly 3.25 does not pass this V1 rule.
home_starter_xera_not_below_3_25
Freddy PeraltaK-BB%
Freddy Peralta recorded a 12.6% K-BB%. V1 requires each starter to be above 18.0%.
Observed
12.6%
V1 requirement
Above 18.0%
Exactly 18.0% does not pass this V1 rule.
away_starter_k_minus_bb_not_above_18pct
Jacob LopezK-BB%
Jacob Lopez recorded a 7.8% K-BB%. V1 requires each starter to be above 18.0%.
Observed
7.8%
V1 requirement
Above 18.0%
Exactly 18.0% does not pass this V1 rule.
home_starter_k_minus_bb_not_above_18pct
Tampa Bay Rays bullpenBullpen ERA rank
Tampa Bay Rays bullpen recorded a #13 ERA rank. V1 requires each bullpen to be in the top 10 (#1–#10).
Observed
#13
V1 requirement
Top 10 (#1–#10)
away_bullpen_era_rank_not_top_10
Athletics bullpenBullpen ERA rank
Athletics bullpen recorded a #30 ERA rank. V1 requires each bullpen to be in the top 10 (#1–#10).
Observed
#30
V1 requirement
Top 10 (#1–#10)
home_bullpen_era_rank_not_top_10

Duel Filter V1 · v1.0.0Evaluated Aug 10, 10:16 AM CDTInputs updated Aug 10, 10:16 AM CDTMLB 824969

Aug 10, 8:40 PM CDTPetco Park

Does not match

Away

Milwaukee Brewers

Logan Hendersonprobable

xERA: 2.62
K-BB%: 27.1%
Bullpen: #4

Pitcher stats through 2026-08-10

Home

San Diego Padres

Casey Mizeprobable

xERA: 3.34
K-BB%: 17.6%
Bullpen: #5

Pitcher stats through 2026-08-10

Does not match

The evaluation was complete, but one or more immutable V1 thresholds did not pass.

Thresholds not met

Casey MizexERA
Casey Mize recorded a 3.34 xERA. V1 requires each starter to be below 3.25.
Observed
3.34
V1 requirement
Below 3.25
Exactly 3.25 does not pass this V1 rule.
home_starter_xera_not_below_3_25
Casey MizeK-BB%
Casey Mize recorded a 17.6% K-BB%. V1 requires each starter to be above 18.0%.
Observed
17.6%
V1 requirement
Above 18.0%
Exactly 18.0% does not pass this V1 rule.
home_starter_k_minus_bb_not_above_18pct

Duel Filter V1 · v1.0.0Evaluated Aug 10, 10:16 AM CDTInputs updated Aug 10, 10:16 AM CDTMLB 823265

Aug 10, 8:45 PM CDTOracle Park

Does not match

Away

Houston Astros

Hayden Wesneskiprobable

xERA: 5.65
K-BB%: 8.3%
Bullpen: #14

Pitcher stats through 2026-08-10

Home

San Francisco Giants

Blade Tidwellprobable

xERA: 3.30
K-BB%: 13.0%
Bullpen: #21

Pitcher stats through 2026-08-10

Does not match

The evaluation was complete, but one or more immutable V1 thresholds did not pass.

Thresholds not met

Hayden WesneskixERA
Hayden Wesneski recorded a 5.65 xERA. V1 requires each starter to be below 3.25.
Observed
5.65
V1 requirement
Below 3.25
Exactly 3.25 does not pass this V1 rule.
away_starter_xera_not_below_3_25
Blade TidwellxERA
Blade Tidwell recorded a 3.30 xERA. V1 requires each starter to be below 3.25.
Observed
3.30
V1 requirement
Below 3.25
Exactly 3.25 does not pass this V1 rule.
home_starter_xera_not_below_3_25
Hayden WesneskiK-BB%
Hayden Wesneski recorded a 8.3% K-BB%. V1 requires each starter to be above 18.0%.
Observed
8.3%
V1 requirement
Above 18.0%
Exactly 18.0% does not pass this V1 rule.
away_starter_k_minus_bb_not_above_18pct
Blade TidwellK-BB%
Blade Tidwell recorded a 13.0% K-BB%. V1 requires each starter to be above 18.0%.
Observed
13.0%
V1 requirement
Above 18.0%
Exactly 18.0% does not pass this V1 rule.
home_starter_k_minus_bb_not_above_18pct
Houston Astros bullpenBullpen ERA rank
Houston Astros bullpen recorded a #14 ERA rank. V1 requires each bullpen to be in the top 10 (#1–#10).
Observed
#14
V1 requirement
Top 10 (#1–#10)
away_bullpen_era_rank_not_top_10
San Francisco Giants bullpenBullpen ERA rank
San Francisco Giants bullpen recorded a #21 ERA rank. V1 requires each bullpen to be in the top 10 (#1–#10).
Observed
#21
V1 requirement
Top 10 (#1–#10)
home_bullpen_era_rank_not_top_10

Duel Filter V1 · v1.0.0Evaluated Aug 10, 10:16 AM CDTInputs updated Aug 10, 10:16 AM CDTMLB 823189

Aug 10, 9:10 PM CDTUNIQLO Field at Dodger Stadium

Does not match

Away

Kansas City Royals

Noah Cameronprobable

xERA: 4.41
K-BB%: 14.4%
Bullpen: #29

Pitcher stats through 2026-08-10

Home

Los Angeles Dodgers

Tarik Skubalprobable

xERA: 2.99
K-BB%: 26.6%
Bullpen: #15

Pitcher stats through 2026-08-10

Does not match

The evaluation was complete, but one or more immutable V1 thresholds did not pass.

Thresholds not met

Noah CameronxERA
Noah Cameron recorded a 4.41 xERA. V1 requires each starter to be below 3.25.
Observed
4.41
V1 requirement
Below 3.25
Exactly 3.25 does not pass this V1 rule.
away_starter_xera_not_below_3_25
Noah CameronK-BB%
Noah Cameron recorded a 14.4% K-BB%. V1 requires each starter to be above 18.0%.
Observed
14.4%
V1 requirement
Above 18.0%
Exactly 18.0% does not pass this V1 rule.
away_starter_k_minus_bb_not_above_18pct
Kansas City Royals bullpenBullpen ERA rank
Kansas City Royals bullpen recorded a #29 ERA rank. V1 requires each bullpen to be in the top 10 (#1–#10).
Observed
#29
V1 requirement
Top 10 (#1–#10)
away_bullpen_era_rank_not_top_10
Los Angeles Dodgers bullpenBullpen ERA rank
Los Angeles Dodgers bullpen recorded a #15 ERA rank. V1 requires each bullpen to be in the top 10 (#1–#10).
Observed
#15
V1 requirement
Top 10 (#1–#10)
home_bullpen_era_rank_not_top_10

Duel Filter V1 · v1.0.0Evaluated Aug 10, 10:16 AM CDTInputs updated Aug 10, 10:16 AM CDTMLB 823918