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Duel Filter V1 · Daily research cohort

Suppression Candidates

The original pitcher-duel hypothesis, evaluated with immutable point-in-time starter and bullpen snapshots.

Research benchmark only · A cohort match is not a betting recommendation

Evaluated8

V1 matches0

Rejected6

Incomplete2

Point-in-time audit

Daily evaluations

Private source connected

Aug 3, 5:40 PM CDTCitizens Bank Park

Does not match

Away

Washington Nationals

Andrew Alvarezprobable

xERA: 4.51
K-BB%: 11.9%
Bullpen: #27

Pitcher stats through 2026-08-03

Home

Philadelphia Phillies

Aaron Nolaprobable

xERA: 4.33
K-BB%: 15.5%
Bullpen: #24

Pitcher stats through 2026-08-03

Does not match

The evaluation was complete, but one or more immutable V1 thresholds did not pass.

Thresholds not met

Andrew AlvarezxERA
Andrew Alvarez recorded a 4.51 xERA. V1 requires each starter to be below 3.25.
Observed
4.51
V1 requirement
Below 3.25
Exactly 3.25 does not pass this V1 rule.
away_starter_xera_not_below_3_25
Aaron NolaxERA
Aaron Nola recorded a 4.33 xERA. V1 requires each starter to be below 3.25.
Observed
4.33
V1 requirement
Below 3.25
Exactly 3.25 does not pass this V1 rule.
home_starter_xera_not_below_3_25
Andrew AlvarezK-BB%
Andrew Alvarez recorded a 11.9% K-BB%. V1 requires each starter to be above 18.0%.
Observed
11.9%
V1 requirement
Above 18.0%
Exactly 18.0% does not pass this V1 rule.
away_starter_k_minus_bb_not_above_18pct
Aaron NolaK-BB%
Aaron Nola recorded a 15.5% K-BB%. V1 requires each starter to be above 18.0%.
Observed
15.5%
V1 requirement
Above 18.0%
Exactly 18.0% does not pass this V1 rule.
home_starter_k_minus_bb_not_above_18pct
Washington Nationals bullpenBullpen ERA rank
Washington Nationals bullpen recorded a #27 ERA rank. V1 requires each bullpen to be in the top 10 (#1–#10).
Observed
#27
V1 requirement
Top 10 (#1–#10)
away_bullpen_era_rank_not_top_10
Philadelphia Phillies bullpenBullpen ERA rank
Philadelphia Phillies bullpen recorded a #24 ERA rank. V1 requires each bullpen to be in the top 10 (#1–#10).
Observed
#24
V1 requirement
Top 10 (#1–#10)
home_bullpen_era_rank_not_top_10

Duel Filter V1 · v1.0.0Evaluated Aug 3, 10:54 AM CDTInputs updated Aug 3, 10:54 AM CDTMLB 823431

Aug 3, 6:05 PM CDTYankee Stadium

Does not match

Away

St. Louis Cardinals

Michael McGreevyprobable

xERA: 5.66
K-BB%: 10.0%
Bullpen: #23

Pitcher stats through 2026-08-03

Home

New York Yankees

Cam Schlittlerprobable

xERA: 2.89
K-BB%: 25.8%
Bullpen: #2

Pitcher stats through 2026-08-03

Does not match

The evaluation was complete, but one or more immutable V1 thresholds did not pass.

Thresholds not met

Michael McGreevyxERA
Michael McGreevy recorded a 5.66 xERA. V1 requires each starter to be below 3.25.
Observed
5.66
V1 requirement
Below 3.25
Exactly 3.25 does not pass this V1 rule.
away_starter_xera_not_below_3_25
Michael McGreevyK-BB%
Michael McGreevy recorded a 10.0% K-BB%. V1 requires each starter to be above 18.0%.
Observed
10.0%
V1 requirement
Above 18.0%
Exactly 18.0% does not pass this V1 rule.
away_starter_k_minus_bb_not_above_18pct
St. Louis Cardinals bullpenBullpen ERA rank
St. Louis Cardinals bullpen recorded a #23 ERA rank. V1 requires each bullpen to be in the top 10 (#1–#10).
Observed
#23
V1 requirement
Top 10 (#1–#10)
away_bullpen_era_rank_not_top_10

Duel Filter V1 · v1.0.0Evaluated Aug 3, 10:54 AM CDTInputs updated Aug 3, 10:54 AM CDTMLB 823520

Aug 3, 6:40 PM CDTAmerican Family Field

Does not match

Away

Pittsburgh Pirates

Bubba Chandlerprobable

xERA: 3.96
K-BB%: 7.8%
Bullpen: #22

Pitcher stats through 2026-08-03

Home

Milwaukee Brewers

Brandon Sproatprobable

xERA: 4.86
K-BB%: 12.6%
Bullpen: #5

Pitcher stats through 2026-08-03

Does not match

The evaluation was complete, but one or more immutable V1 thresholds did not pass.

Thresholds not met

Bubba ChandlerxERA
Bubba Chandler recorded a 3.96 xERA. V1 requires each starter to be below 3.25.
Observed
3.96
V1 requirement
Below 3.25
Exactly 3.25 does not pass this V1 rule.
away_starter_xera_not_below_3_25
Brandon SproatxERA
Brandon Sproat recorded a 4.86 xERA. V1 requires each starter to be below 3.25.
Observed
4.86
V1 requirement
Below 3.25
Exactly 3.25 does not pass this V1 rule.
home_starter_xera_not_below_3_25
Bubba ChandlerK-BB%
Bubba Chandler recorded a 7.8% K-BB%. V1 requires each starter to be above 18.0%.
Observed
7.8%
V1 requirement
Above 18.0%
Exactly 18.0% does not pass this V1 rule.
away_starter_k_minus_bb_not_above_18pct
Brandon SproatK-BB%
Brandon Sproat recorded a 12.6% K-BB%. V1 requires each starter to be above 18.0%.
Observed
12.6%
V1 requirement
Above 18.0%
Exactly 18.0% does not pass this V1 rule.
home_starter_k_minus_bb_not_above_18pct
Pittsburgh Pirates bullpenBullpen ERA rank
Pittsburgh Pirates bullpen recorded a #22 ERA rank. V1 requires each bullpen to be in the top 10 (#1–#10).
Observed
#22
V1 requirement
Top 10 (#1–#10)
away_bullpen_era_rank_not_top_10

Duel Filter V1 · v1.0.0Evaluated Aug 3, 10:54 AM CDTInputs updated Aug 3, 10:54 AM CDTMLB 823757

Aug 3, 7:05 PM CDTWrigley Field

Incomplete data

Away

Los Angeles Dodgers

Starter not linkedunknown

xERA: —
K-BB%: —
Bullpen: #14

Pitcher stats through not available

Home

Chicago Cubs

Matthew Boydprobable

xERA: 4.30
K-BB%: 15.0%
Bullpen: #13

Pitcher stats through 2026-08-03

Incomplete data

No pass/fail conclusion was made because required point-in-time evidence was missing.

Missing point-in-time inputs

Los Angeles Dodgers starterxERA
No point-in-time xERA snapshot was linked for Los Angeles Dodgers starter when this evaluation ran. V1 did not infer a replacement value.
Observed
Missing at evaluation
V1 requirement
Below 3.25
missing_away_starter_xera
Los Angeles Dodgers starterK-BB%
No point-in-time K-BB% snapshot was linked for Los Angeles Dodgers starter when this evaluation ran. V1 did not infer a replacement value.
Observed
Missing at evaluation
V1 requirement
Above 18.0%
missing_away_starter_k_minus_bb

Duel Filter V1 · v1.0.0Evaluated Aug 3, 10:54 AM CDTInputs updated Aug 3, 10:54 AM CDTMLB 824647

Aug 3, 7:05 PM CDTGlobe Life Field

Incomplete data

Away

San Francisco Giants

Logan Webbprobable

xERA: 3.93
K-BB%: 13.0%
Bullpen: #19

Pitcher stats through 2026-08-03

Home

Texas Rangers

Starter not linkedunknown

xERA: —
K-BB%: —
Bullpen: #20

Pitcher stats through not available

Incomplete data

No pass/fail conclusion was made because required point-in-time evidence was missing.

Missing point-in-time inputs

Texas Rangers starterxERA
No point-in-time xERA snapshot was linked for Texas Rangers starter when this evaluation ran. V1 did not infer a replacement value.
Observed
Missing at evaluation
V1 requirement
Below 3.25
missing_home_starter_xera
Texas Rangers starterK-BB%
No point-in-time K-BB% snapshot was linked for Texas Rangers starter when this evaluation ran. V1 did not infer a replacement value.
Observed
Missing at evaluation
V1 requirement
Above 18.0%
missing_home_starter_k_minus_bb

Duel Filter V1 · v1.0.0Evaluated Aug 3, 10:54 AM CDTInputs updated Aug 3, 10:54 AM CDTMLB 822867

Aug 3, 7:10 PM CDTDaikin Park

Does not match

Away

Toronto Blue Jays

Shane Bieberprobable

xERA: 7.53
K-BB%: 2.8%
Bullpen: #8

Pitcher stats through 2026-08-03

Home

Houston Astros

Cristian Javierprobable

xERA: 5.59
K-BB%: 5.9%
Bullpen: #16

Pitcher stats through 2026-08-03

Does not match

The evaluation was complete, but one or more immutable V1 thresholds did not pass.

Thresholds not met

Shane BieberxERA
Shane Bieber recorded a 7.53 xERA. V1 requires each starter to be below 3.25.
Observed
7.53
V1 requirement
Below 3.25
Exactly 3.25 does not pass this V1 rule.
away_starter_xera_not_below_3_25
Cristian JavierxERA
Cristian Javier recorded a 5.59 xERA. V1 requires each starter to be below 3.25.
Observed
5.59
V1 requirement
Below 3.25
Exactly 3.25 does not pass this V1 rule.
home_starter_xera_not_below_3_25
Shane BieberK-BB%
Shane Bieber recorded a 2.8% K-BB%. V1 requires each starter to be above 18.0%.
Observed
2.8%
V1 requirement
Above 18.0%
Exactly 18.0% does not pass this V1 rule.
away_starter_k_minus_bb_not_above_18pct
Cristian JavierK-BB%
Cristian Javier recorded a 5.9% K-BB%. V1 requires each starter to be above 18.0%.
Observed
5.9%
V1 requirement
Above 18.0%
Exactly 18.0% does not pass this V1 rule.
home_starter_k_minus_bb_not_above_18pct
Houston Astros bullpenBullpen ERA rank
Houston Astros bullpen recorded a #16 ERA rank. V1 requires each bullpen to be in the top 10 (#1–#10).
Observed
#16
V1 requirement
Top 10 (#1–#10)
home_bullpen_era_rank_not_top_10

Duel Filter V1 · v1.0.0Evaluated Aug 3, 10:54 AM CDTInputs updated Aug 3, 10:54 AM CDTMLB 824160

Aug 3, 7:40 PM CDTCoors Field

Does not match

Away

Tampa Bay Rays

Ian Seymourprobable

xERA: 3.35
K-BB%: 19.2%
Bullpen: #15

Pitcher stats through 2026-08-03

Home

Colorado Rockies

Michael Lorenzenprobable

xERA: 5.62
K-BB%: 8.0%
Bullpen: #28

Pitcher stats through 2026-08-03

Does not match

The evaluation was complete, but one or more immutable V1 thresholds did not pass.

Thresholds not met

Ian SeymourxERA
Ian Seymour recorded a 3.35 xERA. V1 requires each starter to be below 3.25.
Observed
3.35
V1 requirement
Below 3.25
Exactly 3.25 does not pass this V1 rule.
away_starter_xera_not_below_3_25
Michael LorenzenxERA
Michael Lorenzen recorded a 5.62 xERA. V1 requires each starter to be below 3.25.
Observed
5.62
V1 requirement
Below 3.25
Exactly 3.25 does not pass this V1 rule.
home_starter_xera_not_below_3_25
Michael LorenzenK-BB%
Michael Lorenzen recorded a 8.0% K-BB%. V1 requires each starter to be above 18.0%.
Observed
8.0%
V1 requirement
Above 18.0%
Exactly 18.0% does not pass this V1 rule.
home_starter_k_minus_bb_not_above_18pct
Tampa Bay Rays bullpenBullpen ERA rank
Tampa Bay Rays bullpen recorded a #15 ERA rank. V1 requires each bullpen to be in the top 10 (#1–#10).
Observed
#15
V1 requirement
Top 10 (#1–#10)
away_bullpen_era_rank_not_top_10
Colorado Rockies bullpenBullpen ERA rank
Colorado Rockies bullpen recorded a #28 ERA rank. V1 requires each bullpen to be in the top 10 (#1–#10).
Observed
#28
V1 requirement
Top 10 (#1–#10)
home_bullpen_era_rank_not_top_10

Duel Filter V1 · v1.0.0Evaluated Aug 3, 10:54 AM CDTInputs updated Aug 3, 10:54 AM CDTMLB 824324

Aug 3, 8:40 PM CDTChase Field

Does not match

Away

San Diego Padres

Michael Kingprobable

xERA: 4.58
K-BB%: 11.5%
Bullpen: #6

Pitcher stats through 2026-08-03

Home

Arizona Diamondbacks

Brandon Pfaadtprobable

xERA: 4.01
K-BB%: 9.1%
Bullpen: #18

Pitcher stats through 2026-08-03

Does not match

The evaluation was complete, but one or more immutable V1 thresholds did not pass.

Thresholds not met

Michael KingxERA
Michael King recorded a 4.58 xERA. V1 requires each starter to be below 3.25.
Observed
4.58
V1 requirement
Below 3.25
Exactly 3.25 does not pass this V1 rule.
away_starter_xera_not_below_3_25
Brandon PfaadtxERA
Brandon Pfaadt recorded a 4.01 xERA. V1 requires each starter to be below 3.25.
Observed
4.01
V1 requirement
Below 3.25
Exactly 3.25 does not pass this V1 rule.
home_starter_xera_not_below_3_25
Michael KingK-BB%
Michael King recorded a 11.5% K-BB%. V1 requires each starter to be above 18.0%.
Observed
11.5%
V1 requirement
Above 18.0%
Exactly 18.0% does not pass this V1 rule.
away_starter_k_minus_bb_not_above_18pct
Brandon PfaadtK-BB%
Brandon Pfaadt recorded a 9.1% K-BB%. V1 requires each starter to be above 18.0%.
Observed
9.1%
V1 requirement
Above 18.0%
Exactly 18.0% does not pass this V1 rule.
home_starter_k_minus_bb_not_above_18pct
Arizona Diamondbacks bullpenBullpen ERA rank
Arizona Diamondbacks bullpen recorded a #18 ERA rank. V1 requires each bullpen to be in the top 10 (#1–#10).
Observed
#18
V1 requirement
Top 10 (#1–#10)
home_bullpen_era_rank_not_top_10

Duel Filter V1 · v1.0.0Evaluated Aug 3, 10:54 AM CDTInputs updated Aug 3, 10:54 AM CDTMLB 825095