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Duel Filter V1 · Daily research cohort

Suppression Candidates

The original pitcher-duel hypothesis, evaluated with immutable point-in-time starter and bullpen snapshots.

Research benchmark only · A cohort match is not a betting recommendation

Evaluated14

V1 matches0

Rejected11

Incomplete3

Point-in-time audit

Daily evaluations

Private source connected

Jul 29, 12:05 PM CDTNationals Park

Does not match

Away

Toronto Blue Jays

Trey Yesavageprobable

xERA: 3.33
K-BB%: 12.7%
Bullpen: #9

Pitcher stats through 2026-07-29

Home

Washington Nationals

Zack Littellprobable

xERA: 6.27
K-BB%: 8.1%
Bullpen: #26

Pitcher stats through 2026-07-29

Does not match

The evaluation was complete, but one or more immutable V1 thresholds did not pass.

Thresholds not met

Trey YesavagexERA
Trey Yesavage recorded a 3.33 xERA. V1 requires each starter to be below 3.25.
Observed
3.33
V1 requirement
Below 3.25
Exactly 3.25 does not pass this V1 rule.
away_starter_xera_not_below_3_25
Zack LittellxERA
Zack Littell recorded a 6.27 xERA. V1 requires each starter to be below 3.25.
Observed
6.27
V1 requirement
Below 3.25
Exactly 3.25 does not pass this V1 rule.
home_starter_xera_not_below_3_25
Trey YesavageK-BB%
Trey Yesavage recorded a 12.7% K-BB%. V1 requires each starter to be above 18.0%.
Observed
12.7%
V1 requirement
Above 18.0%
Exactly 18.0% does not pass this V1 rule.
away_starter_k_minus_bb_not_above_18pct
Zack LittellK-BB%
Zack Littell recorded a 8.1% K-BB%. V1 requires each starter to be above 18.0%.
Observed
8.1%
V1 requirement
Above 18.0%
Exactly 18.0% does not pass this V1 rule.
home_starter_k_minus_bb_not_above_18pct
Washington Nationals bullpenBullpen ERA rank
Washington Nationals bullpen recorded a #26 ERA rank. V1 requires each bullpen to be in the top 10 (#1–#10).
Observed
#26
V1 requirement
Top 10 (#1–#10)
home_bullpen_era_rank_not_top_10

Duel Filter V1 · v1.0.0Evaluated Jul 29, 11:39 AM CDTInputs updated Jul 29, 11:39 AM CDTMLB 822702

Jul 29, 12:10 PM CDTComerica Park

Does not match

Away

Baltimore Orioles

Trevor Rogersprobable

xERA: 4.12
K-BB%: 11.7%
Bullpen: #15

Pitcher stats through 2026-07-29

Home

Detroit Tigers

Tarik Skubalprobable

xERA: 2.90
K-BB%: 27.8%
Bullpen: #8

Pitcher stats through 2026-07-29

Does not match

The evaluation was complete, but one or more immutable V1 thresholds did not pass.

Thresholds not met

Trevor RogersxERA
Trevor Rogers recorded a 4.12 xERA. V1 requires each starter to be below 3.25.
Observed
4.12
V1 requirement
Below 3.25
Exactly 3.25 does not pass this V1 rule.
away_starter_xera_not_below_3_25
Trevor RogersK-BB%
Trevor Rogers recorded a 11.7% K-BB%. V1 requires each starter to be above 18.0%.
Observed
11.7%
V1 requirement
Above 18.0%
Exactly 18.0% does not pass this V1 rule.
away_starter_k_minus_bb_not_above_18pct
Baltimore Orioles bullpenBullpen ERA rank
Baltimore Orioles bullpen recorded a #15 ERA rank. V1 requires each bullpen to be in the top 10 (#1–#10).
Observed
#15
V1 requirement
Top 10 (#1–#10)
away_bullpen_era_rank_not_top_10

Duel Filter V1 · v1.0.0Evaluated Jul 29, 11:39 AM CDTInputs updated Jul 29, 11:39 AM CDTMLB 824242

Jul 29, 12:10 PM CDTCiti Field

Incomplete data

Away

Atlanta Braves

AJ Smith-Shawverprobable

xERA: —
K-BB%: 9.1%
Bullpen: #3

Pitcher stats through 2025-04-11

Home

New York Mets

Sean Manaeaprobable

xERA: 4.45
K-BB%: 14.9%
Bullpen: #10

Pitcher stats through 2026-07-29

Incomplete data

No pass/fail conclusion was made because required point-in-time evidence was missing.

Missing point-in-time inputs

AJ Smith-ShawverxERA
No point-in-time xERA snapshot was linked for AJ Smith-Shawver when this evaluation ran. V1 did not infer a replacement value.
Observed
Missing at evaluation
V1 requirement
Below 3.25
missing_away_starter_xera

Duel Filter V1 · v1.0.0Evaluated Jul 29, 11:39 AM CDTInputs updated Jul 29, 11:39 AM CDTMLB 823596

Jul 29, 2:45 PM CDTOracle Park

Does not match

Away

Milwaukee Brewers

Shane Drohanprobable

xERA: 3.33
K-BB%: 17.3%
Bullpen: #4

Pitcher stats through 2026-07-29

Home

San Francisco Giants

Logan Webbprobable

xERA: 4.04
K-BB%: 13.0%
Bullpen: #23

Pitcher stats through 2026-07-29

Does not match

The evaluation was complete, but one or more immutable V1 thresholds did not pass.

Thresholds not met

Shane DrohanxERA
Shane Drohan recorded a 3.33 xERA. V1 requires each starter to be below 3.25.
Observed
3.33
V1 requirement
Below 3.25
Exactly 3.25 does not pass this V1 rule.
away_starter_xera_not_below_3_25
Logan WebbxERA
Logan Webb recorded a 4.04 xERA. V1 requires each starter to be below 3.25.
Observed
4.04
V1 requirement
Below 3.25
Exactly 3.25 does not pass this V1 rule.
home_starter_xera_not_below_3_25
Shane DrohanK-BB%
Shane Drohan recorded a 17.3% K-BB%. V1 requires each starter to be above 18.0%.
Observed
17.3%
V1 requirement
Above 18.0%
Exactly 18.0% does not pass this V1 rule.
away_starter_k_minus_bb_not_above_18pct
Logan WebbK-BB%
Logan Webb recorded a 13.0% K-BB%. V1 requires each starter to be above 18.0%.
Observed
13.0%
V1 requirement
Above 18.0%
Exactly 18.0% does not pass this V1 rule.
home_starter_k_minus_bb_not_above_18pct
San Francisco Giants bullpenBullpen ERA rank
San Francisco Giants bullpen recorded a #23 ERA rank. V1 requires each bullpen to be in the top 10 (#1–#10).
Observed
#23
V1 requirement
Top 10 (#1–#10)
home_bullpen_era_rank_not_top_10

Duel Filter V1 · v1.0.0Evaluated Jul 29, 11:39 AM CDTInputs updated Jul 29, 11:39 AM CDTMLB 823192

Jul 29, 3:10 PM CDTPetco Park

Incomplete data

Away

Colorado Rockies

Gabriel Hughesprobable

xERA: 2.23
K-BB%: 16.9%
Bullpen: #28

Pitcher stats through 2026-07-29

Home

San Diego Padres

Starter not linkedunknown

xERA: —
K-BB%: —
Bullpen: #6

Pitcher stats through not available

Incomplete data

No pass/fail conclusion was made because required point-in-time evidence was missing.

Missing point-in-time inputs

San Diego Padres starterxERA
No point-in-time xERA snapshot was linked for San Diego Padres starter when this evaluation ran. V1 did not infer a replacement value.
Observed
Missing at evaluation
V1 requirement
Below 3.25
missing_home_starter_xera
San Diego Padres starterK-BB%
No point-in-time K-BB% snapshot was linked for San Diego Padres starter when this evaluation ran. V1 did not infer a replacement value.
Observed
Missing at evaluation
V1 requirement
Above 18.0%
missing_home_starter_k_minus_bb

Duel Filter V1 · v1.0.0Evaluated Jul 29, 11:39 AM CDTInputs updated Jul 29, 11:39 AM CDTMLB 823273

Jul 29, 5:40 PM CDTTropicana Field

Does not match

Away

Texas Rangers

MacKenzie Goreprobable

xERA: 3.98
K-BB%: 16.7%
Bullpen: #19

Pitcher stats through 2026-07-29

Home

Tampa Bay Rays

Casey Leguminaprobable

xERA: 4.83
K-BB%: 9.7%
Bullpen: #16

Pitcher stats through 2026-07-29

Does not match

The evaluation was complete, but one or more immutable V1 thresholds did not pass.

Thresholds not met

MacKenzie GorexERA
MacKenzie Gore recorded a 3.98 xERA. V1 requires each starter to be below 3.25.
Observed
3.98
V1 requirement
Below 3.25
Exactly 3.25 does not pass this V1 rule.
away_starter_xera_not_below_3_25
Casey LeguminaxERA
Casey Legumina recorded a 4.83 xERA. V1 requires each starter to be below 3.25.
Observed
4.83
V1 requirement
Below 3.25
Exactly 3.25 does not pass this V1 rule.
home_starter_xera_not_below_3_25
MacKenzie GoreK-BB%
MacKenzie Gore recorded a 16.7% K-BB%. V1 requires each starter to be above 18.0%.
Observed
16.7%
V1 requirement
Above 18.0%
Exactly 18.0% does not pass this V1 rule.
away_starter_k_minus_bb_not_above_18pct
Casey LeguminaK-BB%
Casey Legumina recorded a 9.7% K-BB%. V1 requires each starter to be above 18.0%.
Observed
9.7%
V1 requirement
Above 18.0%
Exactly 18.0% does not pass this V1 rule.
home_starter_k_minus_bb_not_above_18pct
Texas Rangers bullpenBullpen ERA rank
Texas Rangers bullpen recorded a #19 ERA rank. V1 requires each bullpen to be in the top 10 (#1–#10).
Observed
#19
V1 requirement
Top 10 (#1–#10)
away_bullpen_era_rank_not_top_10
Tampa Bay Rays bullpenBullpen ERA rank
Tampa Bay Rays bullpen recorded a #16 ERA rank. V1 requires each bullpen to be in the top 10 (#1–#10).
Observed
#16
V1 requirement
Top 10 (#1–#10)
home_bullpen_era_rank_not_top_10

Duel Filter V1 · v1.0.0Evaluated Jul 29, 11:39 AM CDTInputs updated Jul 29, 11:39 AM CDTMLB 822947

Jul 29, 6:10 PM CDTCiti Field

Does not match

Away

Atlanta Braves

Chris Saleprobable

xERA: 3.18
K-BB%: 23.9%
Bullpen: #3

Pitcher stats through 2026-07-29

Home

New York Mets

Christian Scottprobable

xERA: 4.01
K-BB%: 18.1%
Bullpen: #10

Pitcher stats through 2026-07-29

Does not match

The evaluation was complete, but one or more immutable V1 thresholds did not pass.

Thresholds not met

Christian ScottxERA
Christian Scott recorded a 4.01 xERA. V1 requires each starter to be below 3.25.
Observed
4.01
V1 requirement
Below 3.25
Exactly 3.25 does not pass this V1 rule.
home_starter_xera_not_below_3_25

Duel Filter V1 · v1.0.0Evaluated Jul 29, 11:39 AM CDTInputs updated Jul 29, 11:39 AM CDTMLB 823598

Jul 29, 6:10 PM CDTGreat American Ball Park

Does not match

Away

Cleveland Guardians

Joey Cantilloprobable

xERA: 3.90
K-BB%: 13.3%
Bullpen: #6

Pitcher stats through 2026-07-29

Home

Cincinnati Reds

Brady Singerprobable

xERA: 5.02
K-BB%: 12.3%
Bullpen: #25

Pitcher stats through 2026-07-29

Does not match

The evaluation was complete, but one or more immutable V1 thresholds did not pass.

Thresholds not met

Joey CantilloxERA
Joey Cantillo recorded a 3.90 xERA. V1 requires each starter to be below 3.25.
Observed
3.90
V1 requirement
Below 3.25
Exactly 3.25 does not pass this V1 rule.
away_starter_xera_not_below_3_25
Brady SingerxERA
Brady Singer recorded a 5.02 xERA. V1 requires each starter to be below 3.25.
Observed
5.02
V1 requirement
Below 3.25
Exactly 3.25 does not pass this V1 rule.
home_starter_xera_not_below_3_25
Joey CantilloK-BB%
Joey Cantillo recorded a 13.3% K-BB%. V1 requires each starter to be above 18.0%.
Observed
13.3%
V1 requirement
Above 18.0%
Exactly 18.0% does not pass this V1 rule.
away_starter_k_minus_bb_not_above_18pct
Brady SingerK-BB%
Brady Singer recorded a 12.3% K-BB%. V1 requires each starter to be above 18.0%.
Observed
12.3%
V1 requirement
Above 18.0%
Exactly 18.0% does not pass this V1 rule.
home_starter_k_minus_bb_not_above_18pct
Cincinnati Reds bullpenBullpen ERA rank
Cincinnati Reds bullpen recorded a #25 ERA rank. V1 requires each bullpen to be in the top 10 (#1–#10).
Observed
#25
V1 requirement
Top 10 (#1–#10)
home_bullpen_era_rank_not_top_10

Duel Filter V1 · v1.0.0Evaluated Jul 29, 11:39 AM CDTInputs updated Jul 29, 11:39 AM CDTMLB 824487

Jul 29, 6:40 PM CDTTarget Field

Does not match

Away

Kansas City Royals

Randy Dobnakprobable

xERA: 5.06
K-BB%: 1.3%
Bullpen: #29

Pitcher stats through 2026-07-29

Home

Minnesota Twins

Joe Ryanprobable

xERA: 3.50
K-BB%: 22.5%
Bullpen: #26

Pitcher stats through 2026-07-29

Does not match

The evaluation was complete, but one or more immutable V1 thresholds did not pass.

Thresholds not met

Randy DobnakxERA
Randy Dobnak recorded a 5.06 xERA. V1 requires each starter to be below 3.25.
Observed
5.06
V1 requirement
Below 3.25
Exactly 3.25 does not pass this V1 rule.
away_starter_xera_not_below_3_25
Joe RyanxERA
Joe Ryan recorded a 3.50 xERA. V1 requires each starter to be below 3.25.
Observed
3.50
V1 requirement
Below 3.25
Exactly 3.25 does not pass this V1 rule.
home_starter_xera_not_below_3_25
Randy DobnakK-BB%
Randy Dobnak recorded a 1.3% K-BB%. V1 requires each starter to be above 18.0%.
Observed
1.3%
V1 requirement
Above 18.0%
Exactly 18.0% does not pass this V1 rule.
away_starter_k_minus_bb_not_above_18pct
Kansas City Royals bullpenBullpen ERA rank
Kansas City Royals bullpen recorded a #29 ERA rank. V1 requires each bullpen to be in the top 10 (#1–#10).
Observed
#29
V1 requirement
Top 10 (#1–#10)
away_bullpen_era_rank_not_top_10
Minnesota Twins bullpenBullpen ERA rank
Minnesota Twins bullpen recorded a #26 ERA rank. V1 requires each bullpen to be in the top 10 (#1–#10).
Observed
#26
V1 requirement
Top 10 (#1–#10)
home_bullpen_era_rank_not_top_10

Duel Filter V1 · v1.0.0Evaluated Jul 29, 11:39 AM CDTInputs updated Jul 29, 11:39 AM CDTMLB 823677

Jul 29, 6:40 PM CDTRate Field

Does not match

Away

New York Yankees

Cam Schlittlerprobable

xERA: 2.95
K-BB%: 25.6%
Bullpen: #2

Pitcher stats through 2026-07-29

Home

Chicago White Sox

Davis Martinprobable

xERA: 4.33
K-BB%: 14.5%
Bullpen: #11

Pitcher stats through 2026-07-29

Does not match

The evaluation was complete, but one or more immutable V1 thresholds did not pass.

Thresholds not met

Davis MartinxERA
Davis Martin recorded a 4.33 xERA. V1 requires each starter to be below 3.25.
Observed
4.33
V1 requirement
Below 3.25
Exactly 3.25 does not pass this V1 rule.
home_starter_xera_not_below_3_25
Davis MartinK-BB%
Davis Martin recorded a 14.5% K-BB%. V1 requires each starter to be above 18.0%.
Observed
14.5%
V1 requirement
Above 18.0%
Exactly 18.0% does not pass this V1 rule.
home_starter_k_minus_bb_not_above_18pct
Chicago White Sox bullpenBullpen ERA rank
Chicago White Sox bullpen recorded a #11 ERA rank. V1 requires each bullpen to be in the top 10 (#1–#10).
Observed
#11
V1 requirement
Top 10 (#1–#10)
home_bullpen_era_rank_not_top_10

Duel Filter V1 · v1.0.0Evaluated Jul 29, 11:39 AM CDTInputs updated Jul 29, 11:39 AM CDTMLB 824567

Jul 29, 6:45 PM CDTBusch Stadium

Does not match

Away

Chicago Cubs

Matthew Boydprobable

xERA: 4.42
K-BB%: 15.4%
Bullpen: #14

Pitcher stats through 2026-07-29

Home

St. Louis Cardinals

Dustin Mayprobable

xERA: 3.98
K-BB%: 15.9%
Bullpen: #20

Pitcher stats through 2026-07-29

Does not match

The evaluation was complete, but one or more immutable V1 thresholds did not pass.

Thresholds not met

Matthew BoydxERA
Matthew Boyd recorded a 4.42 xERA. V1 requires each starter to be below 3.25.
Observed
4.42
V1 requirement
Below 3.25
Exactly 3.25 does not pass this V1 rule.
away_starter_xera_not_below_3_25
Dustin MayxERA
Dustin May recorded a 3.98 xERA. V1 requires each starter to be below 3.25.
Observed
3.98
V1 requirement
Below 3.25
Exactly 3.25 does not pass this V1 rule.
home_starter_xera_not_below_3_25
Matthew BoydK-BB%
Matthew Boyd recorded a 15.4% K-BB%. V1 requires each starter to be above 18.0%.
Observed
15.4%
V1 requirement
Above 18.0%
Exactly 18.0% does not pass this V1 rule.
away_starter_k_minus_bb_not_above_18pct
Dustin MayK-BB%
Dustin May recorded a 15.9% K-BB%. V1 requires each starter to be above 18.0%.
Observed
15.9%
V1 requirement
Above 18.0%
Exactly 18.0% does not pass this V1 rule.
home_starter_k_minus_bb_not_above_18pct
Chicago Cubs bullpenBullpen ERA rank
Chicago Cubs bullpen recorded a #14 ERA rank. V1 requires each bullpen to be in the top 10 (#1–#10).
Observed
#14
V1 requirement
Top 10 (#1–#10)
away_bullpen_era_rank_not_top_10
St. Louis Cardinals bullpenBullpen ERA rank
St. Louis Cardinals bullpen recorded a #20 ERA rank. V1 requires each bullpen to be in the top 10 (#1–#10).
Observed
#20
V1 requirement
Top 10 (#1–#10)
home_bullpen_era_rank_not_top_10

Duel Filter V1 · v1.0.0Evaluated Jul 29, 11:39 AM CDTInputs updated Jul 29, 11:39 AM CDTMLB 823022

Jul 29, 8:38 PM CDTAngel Stadium

Incomplete data

Away

Houston Astros

Hayden Wesneskiprobable

xERA: —
K-BB%: 14.2%
Bullpen: #18

Pitcher stats through 2024-07-12

Home

Los Angeles Angels

Grayson Rodriguezprobable

xERA: 7.82
K-BB%: 5.9%
Bullpen: #20

Pitcher stats through 2026-07-29

Incomplete data

No pass/fail conclusion was made because required point-in-time evidence was missing.

Missing point-in-time inputs

Hayden WesneskixERA
No point-in-time xERA snapshot was linked for Hayden Wesneski when this evaluation ran. V1 did not infer a replacement value.
Observed
Missing at evaluation
V1 requirement
Below 3.25
missing_away_starter_xera

Duel Filter V1 · v1.0.0Evaluated Jul 29, 11:39 AM CDTInputs updated Jul 29, 11:39 AM CDTMLB 824002

Jul 29, 8:40 PM CDTSutter Health Park

Does not match

Away

Boston Red Sox

Patrick Sandovalprobable

xERA: 3.68
K-BB%: 14.1%
Bullpen: #1

Pitcher stats through 2026-07-29

Home

Athletics

Jacob Lopezprobable

xERA: 3.87
K-BB%: 4.3%
Bullpen: #30

Pitcher stats through 2026-07-29

Does not match

The evaluation was complete, but one or more immutable V1 thresholds did not pass.

Thresholds not met

Patrick SandovalxERA
Patrick Sandoval recorded a 3.68 xERA. V1 requires each starter to be below 3.25.
Observed
3.68
V1 requirement
Below 3.25
Exactly 3.25 does not pass this V1 rule.
away_starter_xera_not_below_3_25
Jacob LopezxERA
Jacob Lopez recorded a 3.87 xERA. V1 requires each starter to be below 3.25.
Observed
3.87
V1 requirement
Below 3.25
Exactly 3.25 does not pass this V1 rule.
home_starter_xera_not_below_3_25
Patrick SandovalK-BB%
Patrick Sandoval recorded a 14.1% K-BB%. V1 requires each starter to be above 18.0%.
Observed
14.1%
V1 requirement
Above 18.0%
Exactly 18.0% does not pass this V1 rule.
away_starter_k_minus_bb_not_above_18pct
Jacob LopezK-BB%
Jacob Lopez recorded a 4.3% K-BB%. V1 requires each starter to be above 18.0%.
Observed
4.3%
V1 requirement
Above 18.0%
Exactly 18.0% does not pass this V1 rule.
home_starter_k_minus_bb_not_above_18pct
Athletics bullpenBullpen ERA rank
Athletics bullpen recorded a #30 ERA rank. V1 requires each bullpen to be in the top 10 (#1–#10).
Observed
#30
V1 requirement
Top 10 (#1–#10)
home_bullpen_era_rank_not_top_10

Duel Filter V1 · v1.0.0Evaluated Jul 29, 11:39 AM CDTInputs updated Jul 29, 11:39 AM CDTMLB 824973

Jul 29, 9:10 PM CDTUNIQLO Field at Dodger Stadium

Does not match

Away

Seattle Mariners

Emerson Hancockprobable

xERA: 4.33
K-BB%: 17.1%
Bullpen: #5

Pitcher stats through 2026-07-29

Home

Los Angeles Dodgers

Eric Lauerprobable

xERA: 4.96
K-BB%: 6.9%
Bullpen: #12

Pitcher stats through 2026-07-29

Does not match

The evaluation was complete, but one or more immutable V1 thresholds did not pass.

Thresholds not met

Emerson HancockxERA
Emerson Hancock recorded a 4.33 xERA. V1 requires each starter to be below 3.25.
Observed
4.33
V1 requirement
Below 3.25
Exactly 3.25 does not pass this V1 rule.
away_starter_xera_not_below_3_25
Eric LauerxERA
Eric Lauer recorded a 4.96 xERA. V1 requires each starter to be below 3.25.
Observed
4.96
V1 requirement
Below 3.25
Exactly 3.25 does not pass this V1 rule.
home_starter_xera_not_below_3_25
Emerson HancockK-BB%
Emerson Hancock recorded a 17.1% K-BB%. V1 requires each starter to be above 18.0%.
Observed
17.1%
V1 requirement
Above 18.0%
Exactly 18.0% does not pass this V1 rule.
away_starter_k_minus_bb_not_above_18pct
Eric LauerK-BB%
Eric Lauer recorded a 6.9% K-BB%. V1 requires each starter to be above 18.0%.
Observed
6.9%
V1 requirement
Above 18.0%
Exactly 18.0% does not pass this V1 rule.
home_starter_k_minus_bb_not_above_18pct
Los Angeles Dodgers bullpenBullpen ERA rank
Los Angeles Dodgers bullpen recorded a #12 ERA rank. V1 requires each bullpen to be in the top 10 (#1–#10).
Observed
#12
V1 requirement
Top 10 (#1–#10)
home_bullpen_era_rank_not_top_10

Duel Filter V1 · v1.0.0Evaluated Jul 29, 11:39 AM CDTInputs updated Jul 29, 11:39 AM CDTMLB 823924