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Duel Filter V1 · Daily research cohort

Suppression Candidates

The original pitcher-duel hypothesis, evaluated with immutable point-in-time starter and bullpen snapshots.

Research benchmark only · A cohort match is not a betting recommendation

Evaluated12

V1 matches0

Rejected11

Incomplete1

Point-in-time audit

Daily evaluations

Private source connected

Jul 27, 1:35 PM CDTGlobe Life Field

Does not match

Away

Seattle Mariners

George Kirbyprobable

xERA: 3.74
K-BB%: 16.6%
Bullpen: #5

Pitcher stats through 2026-07-27

Home

Texas Rangers

Kumar Rockerprobable

xERA: 4.60
K-BB%: 12.2%
Bullpen: #19

Pitcher stats through 2026-07-27

Does not match

The evaluation was complete, but one or more immutable V1 thresholds did not pass.

Thresholds not met

George KirbyxERA
George Kirby recorded a 3.74 xERA. V1 requires each starter to be below 3.25.
Observed
3.74
V1 requirement
Below 3.25
Exactly 3.25 does not pass this V1 rule.
away_starter_xera_not_below_3_25
Kumar RockerxERA
Kumar Rocker recorded a 4.60 xERA. V1 requires each starter to be below 3.25.
Observed
4.60
V1 requirement
Below 3.25
Exactly 3.25 does not pass this V1 rule.
home_starter_xera_not_below_3_25
George KirbyK-BB%
George Kirby recorded a 16.6% K-BB%. V1 requires each starter to be above 18.0%.
Observed
16.6%
V1 requirement
Above 18.0%
Exactly 18.0% does not pass this V1 rule.
away_starter_k_minus_bb_not_above_18pct
Kumar RockerK-BB%
Kumar Rocker recorded a 12.2% K-BB%. V1 requires each starter to be above 18.0%.
Observed
12.2%
V1 requirement
Above 18.0%
Exactly 18.0% does not pass this V1 rule.
home_starter_k_minus_bb_not_above_18pct
Texas Rangers bullpenBullpen ERA rank
Texas Rangers bullpen recorded a #19 ERA rank. V1 requires each bullpen to be in the top 10 (#1–#10).
Observed
#19
V1 requirement
Top 10 (#1–#10)
home_bullpen_era_rank_not_top_10

Duel Filter V1 · v1.0.0Evaluated Jul 27, 12:06 PM CDTInputs updated Jul 27, 12:06 PM CDTMLB 822868

Jul 27, 5:40 PM CDTComerica Park

Does not match

Away

Baltimore Orioles

Kyle Bradishprobable

xERA: 3.85
K-BB%: 12.4%
Bullpen: #15

Pitcher stats through 2026-07-27

Home

Detroit Tigers

Keider Monteroprobable

xERA: 3.38
K-BB%: 13.4%
Bullpen: #8

Pitcher stats through 2026-07-27

Does not match

The evaluation was complete, but one or more immutable V1 thresholds did not pass.

Thresholds not met

Kyle BradishxERA
Kyle Bradish recorded a 3.85 xERA. V1 requires each starter to be below 3.25.
Observed
3.85
V1 requirement
Below 3.25
Exactly 3.25 does not pass this V1 rule.
away_starter_xera_not_below_3_25
Keider MonteroxERA
Keider Montero recorded a 3.38 xERA. V1 requires each starter to be below 3.25.
Observed
3.38
V1 requirement
Below 3.25
Exactly 3.25 does not pass this V1 rule.
home_starter_xera_not_below_3_25
Kyle BradishK-BB%
Kyle Bradish recorded a 12.4% K-BB%. V1 requires each starter to be above 18.0%.
Observed
12.4%
V1 requirement
Above 18.0%
Exactly 18.0% does not pass this V1 rule.
away_starter_k_minus_bb_not_above_18pct
Keider MonteroK-BB%
Keider Montero recorded a 13.4% K-BB%. V1 requires each starter to be above 18.0%.
Observed
13.4%
V1 requirement
Above 18.0%
Exactly 18.0% does not pass this V1 rule.
home_starter_k_minus_bb_not_above_18pct
Baltimore Orioles bullpenBullpen ERA rank
Baltimore Orioles bullpen recorded a #15 ERA rank. V1 requires each bullpen to be in the top 10 (#1–#10).
Observed
#15
V1 requirement
Top 10 (#1–#10)
away_bullpen_era_rank_not_top_10

Duel Filter V1 · v1.0.0Evaluated Jul 27, 12:06 PM CDTInputs updated Jul 27, 12:06 PM CDTMLB 824245

Jul 27, 5:40 PM CDTPNC Park

Does not match

Away

Arizona Diamondbacks

Merrill Kellyprobable

xERA: 7.25
K-BB%: 5.3%
Bullpen: #17

Pitcher stats through 2026-07-27

Home

Pittsburgh Pirates

Mitch Kellerprobable

xERA: 5.23
K-BB%: 9.9%
Bullpen: #24

Pitcher stats through 2026-07-27

Does not match

The evaluation was complete, but one or more immutable V1 thresholds did not pass.

Thresholds not met

Merrill KellyxERA
Merrill Kelly recorded a 7.25 xERA. V1 requires each starter to be below 3.25.
Observed
7.25
V1 requirement
Below 3.25
Exactly 3.25 does not pass this V1 rule.
away_starter_xera_not_below_3_25
Mitch KellerxERA
Mitch Keller recorded a 5.23 xERA. V1 requires each starter to be below 3.25.
Observed
5.23
V1 requirement
Below 3.25
Exactly 3.25 does not pass this V1 rule.
home_starter_xera_not_below_3_25
Merrill KellyK-BB%
Merrill Kelly recorded a 5.3% K-BB%. V1 requires each starter to be above 18.0%.
Observed
5.3%
V1 requirement
Above 18.0%
Exactly 18.0% does not pass this V1 rule.
away_starter_k_minus_bb_not_above_18pct
Mitch KellerK-BB%
Mitch Keller recorded a 9.9% K-BB%. V1 requires each starter to be above 18.0%.
Observed
9.9%
V1 requirement
Above 18.0%
Exactly 18.0% does not pass this V1 rule.
home_starter_k_minus_bb_not_above_18pct
Arizona Diamondbacks bullpenBullpen ERA rank
Arizona Diamondbacks bullpen recorded a #17 ERA rank. V1 requires each bullpen to be in the top 10 (#1–#10).
Observed
#17
V1 requirement
Top 10 (#1–#10)
away_bullpen_era_rank_not_top_10
Pittsburgh Pirates bullpenBullpen ERA rank
Pittsburgh Pirates bullpen recorded a #24 ERA rank. V1 requires each bullpen to be in the top 10 (#1–#10).
Observed
#24
V1 requirement
Top 10 (#1–#10)
home_bullpen_era_rank_not_top_10

Duel Filter V1 · v1.0.0Evaluated Jul 27, 12:06 PM CDTInputs updated Jul 27, 12:06 PM CDTMLB 823353

Jul 27, 5:40 PM CDTloanDepot park

Does not match

Away

Philadelphia Phillies

Zack Wheelerprobable

xERA: 2.60
K-BB%: 25.0%
Bullpen: #21

Pitcher stats through 2026-07-27

Home

Miami Marlins

Tyler Phillipsprobable

xERA: 4.76
K-BB%: 6.4%
Bullpen: #11

Pitcher stats through 2026-07-27

Does not match

The evaluation was complete, but one or more immutable V1 thresholds did not pass.

Thresholds not met

Tyler PhillipsxERA
Tyler Phillips recorded a 4.76 xERA. V1 requires each starter to be below 3.25.
Observed
4.76
V1 requirement
Below 3.25
Exactly 3.25 does not pass this V1 rule.
home_starter_xera_not_below_3_25
Tyler PhillipsK-BB%
Tyler Phillips recorded a 6.4% K-BB%. V1 requires each starter to be above 18.0%.
Observed
6.4%
V1 requirement
Above 18.0%
Exactly 18.0% does not pass this V1 rule.
home_starter_k_minus_bb_not_above_18pct
Philadelphia Phillies bullpenBullpen ERA rank
Philadelphia Phillies bullpen recorded a #21 ERA rank. V1 requires each bullpen to be in the top 10 (#1–#10).
Observed
#21
V1 requirement
Top 10 (#1–#10)
away_bullpen_era_rank_not_top_10
Miami Marlins bullpenBullpen ERA rank
Miami Marlins bullpen recorded a #11 ERA rank. V1 requires each bullpen to be in the top 10 (#1–#10).
Observed
#11
V1 requirement
Top 10 (#1–#10)
home_bullpen_era_rank_not_top_10

Duel Filter V1 · v1.0.0Evaluated Jul 27, 12:06 PM CDTInputs updated Jul 27, 12:06 PM CDTMLB 823839

Jul 27, 5:45 PM CDTNationals Park

Does not match

Away

Toronto Blue Jays

Max Scherzerprobable

xERA: 6.31
K-BB%: 2.9%
Bullpen: #10

Pitcher stats through 2026-07-27

Home

Washington Nationals

Andrew Alvarezprobable

xERA: 4.57
K-BB%: 12.9%
Bullpen: #27

Pitcher stats through 2026-07-27

Does not match

The evaluation was complete, but one or more immutable V1 thresholds did not pass.

Thresholds not met

Max ScherzerxERA
Max Scherzer recorded a 6.31 xERA. V1 requires each starter to be below 3.25.
Observed
6.31
V1 requirement
Below 3.25
Exactly 3.25 does not pass this V1 rule.
away_starter_xera_not_below_3_25
Andrew AlvarezxERA
Andrew Alvarez recorded a 4.57 xERA. V1 requires each starter to be below 3.25.
Observed
4.57
V1 requirement
Below 3.25
Exactly 3.25 does not pass this V1 rule.
home_starter_xera_not_below_3_25
Max ScherzerK-BB%
Max Scherzer recorded a 2.9% K-BB%. V1 requires each starter to be above 18.0%.
Observed
2.9%
V1 requirement
Above 18.0%
Exactly 18.0% does not pass this V1 rule.
away_starter_k_minus_bb_not_above_18pct
Andrew AlvarezK-BB%
Andrew Alvarez recorded a 12.9% K-BB%. V1 requires each starter to be above 18.0%.
Observed
12.9%
V1 requirement
Above 18.0%
Exactly 18.0% does not pass this V1 rule.
home_starter_k_minus_bb_not_above_18pct
Washington Nationals bullpenBullpen ERA rank
Washington Nationals bullpen recorded a #27 ERA rank. V1 requires each bullpen to be in the top 10 (#1–#10).
Observed
#27
V1 requirement
Top 10 (#1–#10)
home_bullpen_era_rank_not_top_10

Duel Filter V1 · v1.0.0Evaluated Jul 27, 12:06 PM CDTInputs updated Jul 27, 12:06 PM CDTMLB 822705

Jul 27, 6:10 PM CDTCiti Field

Does not match

Away

Atlanta Braves

Martín Pérezprobable

xERA: 4.57
K-BB%: 8.3%
Bullpen: #3

Pitcher stats through 2026-07-27

Home

New York Mets

Zac Thorntonprobable

xERA: 4.21
K-BB%: 12.6%
Bullpen: #11

Pitcher stats through 2026-07-27

Does not match

The evaluation was complete, but one or more immutable V1 thresholds did not pass.

Thresholds not met

Martín PérezxERA
Martín Pérez recorded a 4.57 xERA. V1 requires each starter to be below 3.25.
Observed
4.57
V1 requirement
Below 3.25
Exactly 3.25 does not pass this V1 rule.
away_starter_xera_not_below_3_25
Zac ThorntonxERA
Zac Thornton recorded a 4.21 xERA. V1 requires each starter to be below 3.25.
Observed
4.21
V1 requirement
Below 3.25
Exactly 3.25 does not pass this V1 rule.
home_starter_xera_not_below_3_25
Martín PérezK-BB%
Martín Pérez recorded a 8.3% K-BB%. V1 requires each starter to be above 18.0%.
Observed
8.3%
V1 requirement
Above 18.0%
Exactly 18.0% does not pass this V1 rule.
away_starter_k_minus_bb_not_above_18pct
Zac ThorntonK-BB%
Zac Thornton recorded a 12.6% K-BB%. V1 requires each starter to be above 18.0%.
Observed
12.6%
V1 requirement
Above 18.0%
Exactly 18.0% does not pass this V1 rule.
home_starter_k_minus_bb_not_above_18pct
New York Mets bullpenBullpen ERA rank
New York Mets bullpen recorded a #11 ERA rank. V1 requires each bullpen to be in the top 10 (#1–#10).
Observed
#11
V1 requirement
Top 10 (#1–#10)
home_bullpen_era_rank_not_top_10

Duel Filter V1 · v1.0.0Evaluated Jul 27, 12:06 PM CDTInputs updated Jul 27, 12:06 PM CDTMLB 823597

Jul 27, 6:40 PM CDTRate Field

Does not match

Away

New York Yankees

Max Friedprobable

xERA: 2.48
K-BB%: 14.5%
Bullpen: #2

Pitcher stats through 2026-07-27

Home

Chicago White Sox

Noah Schultzprobable

xERA: 6.03
K-BB%: 7.9%
Bullpen: #9

Pitcher stats through 2026-07-27

Does not match

The evaluation was complete, but one or more immutable V1 thresholds did not pass.

Thresholds not met

Noah SchultzxERA
Noah Schultz recorded a 6.03 xERA. V1 requires each starter to be below 3.25.
Observed
6.03
V1 requirement
Below 3.25
Exactly 3.25 does not pass this V1 rule.
home_starter_xera_not_below_3_25
Max FriedK-BB%
Max Fried recorded a 14.5% K-BB%. V1 requires each starter to be above 18.0%.
Observed
14.5%
V1 requirement
Above 18.0%
Exactly 18.0% does not pass this V1 rule.
away_starter_k_minus_bb_not_above_18pct
Noah SchultzK-BB%
Noah Schultz recorded a 7.9% K-BB%. V1 requires each starter to be above 18.0%.
Observed
7.9%
V1 requirement
Above 18.0%
Exactly 18.0% does not pass this V1 rule.
home_starter_k_minus_bb_not_above_18pct

Duel Filter V1 · v1.0.0Evaluated Jul 27, 12:06 PM CDTInputs updated Jul 27, 12:06 PM CDTMLB 824570

Jul 27, 6:45 PM CDTBusch Stadium

Incomplete data

Away

Chicago Cubs

David Petersonprobable

xERA: 5.23
K-BB%: 8.9%
Bullpen: #14

Pitcher stats through 2026-07-27

Home

St. Louis Cardinals

Starter not linkedunknown

xERA: —
K-BB%: —
Bullpen: #20

Pitcher stats through not available

Incomplete data

No pass/fail conclusion was made because required point-in-time evidence was missing.

Missing point-in-time inputs

St. Louis Cardinals starterxERA
No point-in-time xERA snapshot was linked for St. Louis Cardinals starter when this evaluation ran. V1 did not infer a replacement value.
Observed
Missing at evaluation
V1 requirement
Below 3.25
missing_home_starter_xera
St. Louis Cardinals starterK-BB%
No point-in-time K-BB% snapshot was linked for St. Louis Cardinals starter when this evaluation ran. V1 did not infer a replacement value.
Observed
Missing at evaluation
V1 requirement
Above 18.0%
missing_home_starter_k_minus_bb

Duel Filter V1 · v1.0.0Evaluated Jul 27, 12:06 PM CDTInputs updated Jul 27, 12:06 PM CDTMLB 823025

Jul 27, 8:38 PM CDTAngel Stadium

Does not match

Away

Houston Astros

Tatsuya Imaiprobable

xERA: 4.89
K-BB%: 13.6%
Bullpen: #18

Pitcher stats through 2026-07-27

Home

Los Angeles Angels

Walbert Ureñaprobable

xERA: 3.28
K-BB%: 9.5%
Bullpen: #23

Pitcher stats through 2026-07-27

Does not match

The evaluation was complete, but one or more immutable V1 thresholds did not pass.

Thresholds not met

Tatsuya ImaixERA
Tatsuya Imai recorded a 4.89 xERA. V1 requires each starter to be below 3.25.
Observed
4.89
V1 requirement
Below 3.25
Exactly 3.25 does not pass this V1 rule.
away_starter_xera_not_below_3_25
Walbert UreñaxERA
Walbert Ureña recorded a 3.28 xERA. V1 requires each starter to be below 3.25.
Observed
3.28
V1 requirement
Below 3.25
Exactly 3.25 does not pass this V1 rule.
home_starter_xera_not_below_3_25
Tatsuya ImaiK-BB%
Tatsuya Imai recorded a 13.6% K-BB%. V1 requires each starter to be above 18.0%.
Observed
13.6%
V1 requirement
Above 18.0%
Exactly 18.0% does not pass this V1 rule.
away_starter_k_minus_bb_not_above_18pct
Walbert UreñaK-BB%
Walbert Ureña recorded a 9.5% K-BB%. V1 requires each starter to be above 18.0%.
Observed
9.5%
V1 requirement
Above 18.0%
Exactly 18.0% does not pass this V1 rule.
home_starter_k_minus_bb_not_above_18pct
Houston Astros bullpenBullpen ERA rank
Houston Astros bullpen recorded a #18 ERA rank. V1 requires each bullpen to be in the top 10 (#1–#10).
Observed
#18
V1 requirement
Top 10 (#1–#10)
away_bullpen_era_rank_not_top_10
Los Angeles Angels bullpenBullpen ERA rank
Los Angeles Angels bullpen recorded a #23 ERA rank. V1 requires each bullpen to be in the top 10 (#1–#10).
Observed
#23
V1 requirement
Top 10 (#1–#10)
home_bullpen_era_rank_not_top_10

Duel Filter V1 · v1.0.0Evaluated Jul 27, 12:06 PM CDTInputs updated Jul 27, 12:06 PM CDTMLB 824001

Jul 27, 8:40 PM CDTSutter Health Park

Does not match

Away

Boston Red Sox

Payton Tolleprobable

xERA: 2.93
K-BB%: 19.1%
Bullpen: #1

Pitcher stats through 2026-07-27

Home

Athletics

Jack Perkinsprobable

xERA: 4.18
K-BB%: 18.2%
Bullpen: #30

Pitcher stats through 2026-07-27

Does not match

The evaluation was complete, but one or more immutable V1 thresholds did not pass.

Thresholds not met

Jack PerkinsxERA
Jack Perkins recorded a 4.18 xERA. V1 requires each starter to be below 3.25.
Observed
4.18
V1 requirement
Below 3.25
Exactly 3.25 does not pass this V1 rule.
home_starter_xera_not_below_3_25
Athletics bullpenBullpen ERA rank
Athletics bullpen recorded a #30 ERA rank. V1 requires each bullpen to be in the top 10 (#1–#10).
Observed
#30
V1 requirement
Top 10 (#1–#10)
home_bullpen_era_rank_not_top_10

Duel Filter V1 · v1.0.0Evaluated Jul 27, 12:06 PM CDTInputs updated Jul 27, 12:06 PM CDTMLB 824977

Jul 27, 8:45 PM CDTOracle Park

Does not match

Away

Milwaukee Brewers

Brandon Sproatprobable

xERA: 4.83
K-BB%: 12.9%
Bullpen: #4

Pitcher stats through 2026-07-27

Home

San Francisco Giants

Tyler Mahleprobable

xERA: 4.24
K-BB%: 12.3%
Bullpen: #21

Pitcher stats through 2026-07-27

Does not match

The evaluation was complete, but one or more immutable V1 thresholds did not pass.

Thresholds not met

Brandon SproatxERA
Brandon Sproat recorded a 4.83 xERA. V1 requires each starter to be below 3.25.
Observed
4.83
V1 requirement
Below 3.25
Exactly 3.25 does not pass this V1 rule.
away_starter_xera_not_below_3_25
Tyler MahlexERA
Tyler Mahle recorded a 4.24 xERA. V1 requires each starter to be below 3.25.
Observed
4.24
V1 requirement
Below 3.25
Exactly 3.25 does not pass this V1 rule.
home_starter_xera_not_below_3_25
Brandon SproatK-BB%
Brandon Sproat recorded a 12.9% K-BB%. V1 requires each starter to be above 18.0%.
Observed
12.9%
V1 requirement
Above 18.0%
Exactly 18.0% does not pass this V1 rule.
away_starter_k_minus_bb_not_above_18pct
Tyler MahleK-BB%
Tyler Mahle recorded a 12.3% K-BB%. V1 requires each starter to be above 18.0%.
Observed
12.3%
V1 requirement
Above 18.0%
Exactly 18.0% does not pass this V1 rule.
home_starter_k_minus_bb_not_above_18pct
San Francisco Giants bullpenBullpen ERA rank
San Francisco Giants bullpen recorded a #21 ERA rank. V1 requires each bullpen to be in the top 10 (#1–#10).
Observed
#21
V1 requirement
Top 10 (#1–#10)
home_bullpen_era_rank_not_top_10

Duel Filter V1 · v1.0.0Evaluated Jul 27, 12:06 PM CDTInputs updated Jul 27, 12:06 PM CDTMLB 823195

Jul 28, 12:40 PM CDTGreat American Ball Park

Does not match

Away

Cleveland Guardians

Slade Cecconiprobable

xERA: 4.70
K-BB%: 10.5%
Bullpen: #7

Pitcher stats through 2026-07-27

Home

Cincinnati Reds

Chase Burnsprobable

xERA: 3.14
K-BB%: 19.6%
Bullpen: #25

Pitcher stats through 2026-07-27

Does not match

The evaluation was complete, but one or more immutable V1 thresholds did not pass.

Thresholds not met

Slade CecconixERA
Slade Cecconi recorded a 4.70 xERA. V1 requires each starter to be below 3.25.
Observed
4.70
V1 requirement
Below 3.25
Exactly 3.25 does not pass this V1 rule.
away_starter_xera_not_below_3_25
Slade CecconiK-BB%
Slade Cecconi recorded a 10.5% K-BB%. V1 requires each starter to be above 18.0%.
Observed
10.5%
V1 requirement
Above 18.0%
Exactly 18.0% does not pass this V1 rule.
away_starter_k_minus_bb_not_above_18pct
Cincinnati Reds bullpenBullpen ERA rank
Cincinnati Reds bullpen recorded a #25 ERA rank. V1 requires each bullpen to be in the top 10 (#1–#10).
Observed
#25
V1 requirement
Top 10 (#1–#10)
home_bullpen_era_rank_not_top_10

Duel Filter V1 · v1.0.0Evaluated Jul 27, 12:06 PM CDTInputs updated Jul 27, 12:06 PM CDTMLB 824490