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Duel Filter V1 · Daily research cohort

Suppression Candidates

The original pitcher-duel hypothesis, evaluated with immutable point-in-time starter and bullpen snapshots.

Research benchmark only · A cohort match is not a betting recommendation
Evaluated4
V1 matches0
Rejected4
Incomplete0

Point-in-time audit

Daily evaluations

Private source connected
Jul 23, 12:10 PM CDTProgressive Field
Does not match

Away

Minnesota Twins

Taj Bradleyprobable

xERA
3.91
K-BB%
17.8%
Bullpen
#27

Pitcher stats through 2026-07-23

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Cleveland Guardians

Gavin Williamsprobable

xERA
4.37
K-BB%
22.3%
Bullpen
#6

Pitcher stats through 2026-07-23

Does not match

The evaluation was complete, but one or more immutable V1 thresholds did not pass.

Thresholds not met

  • Taj BradleyxERA

    Taj Bradley recorded a 3.91 xERA. V1 requires each starter to be below 3.25.

    Observed
    3.91
    V1 requirement
    Below 3.25

    Exactly 3.25 does not pass this V1 rule.

    away_starter_xera_not_below_3_25

  • Gavin WilliamsxERA

    Gavin Williams recorded a 4.37 xERA. V1 requires each starter to be below 3.25.

    Observed
    4.37
    V1 requirement
    Below 3.25

    Exactly 3.25 does not pass this V1 rule.

    home_starter_xera_not_below_3_25

  • Taj BradleyK-BB%

    Taj Bradley recorded a 17.8% K-BB%. V1 requires each starter to be above 18.0%.

    Observed
    17.8%
    V1 requirement
    Above 18.0%

    Exactly 18.0% does not pass this V1 rule.

    away_starter_k_minus_bb_not_above_18pct

  • Minnesota Twins bullpenBullpen ERA rank

    Minnesota Twins bullpen recorded a #27 ERA rank. V1 requires each bullpen to be in the top 10 (#1–#10).

    Observed
    #27
    V1 requirement
    Top 10 (#1–#10)

    away_bullpen_era_rank_not_top_10

Duel Filter V1 · v1.0.0Evaluated Jul 23, 11:44 AM CDTInputs updated Jul 23, 11:44 AM CDTMLB 824406
Jul 23, 2:07 PM CDTRogers Centre
Does not match

Away

Tampa Bay Rays

Ian Seymourprobable

xERA
3.67
K-BB%
18.7%
Bullpen
#17

Pitcher stats through 2026-07-23

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Toronto Blue Jays

Shane Bieberprobable

xERA
8.54
K-BB%
6.5%
Bullpen
#11

Pitcher stats through 2026-07-23

Does not match

The evaluation was complete, but one or more immutable V1 thresholds did not pass.

Thresholds not met

  • Ian SeymourxERA

    Ian Seymour recorded a 3.67 xERA. V1 requires each starter to be below 3.25.

    Observed
    3.67
    V1 requirement
    Below 3.25

    Exactly 3.25 does not pass this V1 rule.

    away_starter_xera_not_below_3_25

  • Shane BieberxERA

    Shane Bieber recorded a 8.54 xERA. V1 requires each starter to be below 3.25.

    Observed
    8.54
    V1 requirement
    Below 3.25

    Exactly 3.25 does not pass this V1 rule.

    home_starter_xera_not_below_3_25

  • Shane BieberK-BB%

    Shane Bieber recorded a 6.5% K-BB%. V1 requires each starter to be above 18.0%.

    Observed
    6.5%
    V1 requirement
    Above 18.0%

    Exactly 18.0% does not pass this V1 rule.

    home_starter_k_minus_bb_not_above_18pct

  • Tampa Bay Rays bullpenBullpen ERA rank

    Tampa Bay Rays bullpen recorded a #17 ERA rank. V1 requires each bullpen to be in the top 10 (#1–#10).

    Observed
    #17
    V1 requirement
    Top 10 (#1–#10)

    away_bullpen_era_rank_not_top_10

  • Toronto Blue Jays bullpenBullpen ERA rank

    Toronto Blue Jays bullpen recorded a #11 ERA rank. V1 requires each bullpen to be in the top 10 (#1–#10).

    Observed
    #11
    V1 requirement
    Top 10 (#1–#10)

    home_bullpen_era_rank_not_top_10

Duel Filter V1 · v1.0.0Evaluated Jul 23, 11:44 AM CDTInputs updated Jul 23, 11:44 AM CDTMLB 822785
Jul 23, 4:15 PM CDTBusch Stadium
Does not match

Away

Arizona Diamondbacks

Brandon Pfaadtprobable

xERA
4.22
K-BB%
10.2%
Bullpen
#14

Pitcher stats through 2026-07-23

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St. Louis Cardinals

Michael McGreevyprobable

xERA
5.35
K-BB%
11.0%
Bullpen
#19

Pitcher stats through 2026-07-23

Does not match

The evaluation was complete, but one or more immutable V1 thresholds did not pass.

Thresholds not met

  • Brandon PfaadtxERA

    Brandon Pfaadt recorded a 4.22 xERA. V1 requires each starter to be below 3.25.

    Observed
    4.22
    V1 requirement
    Below 3.25

    Exactly 3.25 does not pass this V1 rule.

    away_starter_xera_not_below_3_25

  • Michael McGreevyxERA

    Michael McGreevy recorded a 5.35 xERA. V1 requires each starter to be below 3.25.

    Observed
    5.35
    V1 requirement
    Below 3.25

    Exactly 3.25 does not pass this V1 rule.

    home_starter_xera_not_below_3_25

  • Brandon PfaadtK-BB%

    Brandon Pfaadt recorded a 10.2% K-BB%. V1 requires each starter to be above 18.0%.

    Observed
    10.2%
    V1 requirement
    Above 18.0%

    Exactly 18.0% does not pass this V1 rule.

    away_starter_k_minus_bb_not_above_18pct

  • Michael McGreevyK-BB%

    Michael McGreevy recorded a 11.0% K-BB%. V1 requires each starter to be above 18.0%.

    Observed
    11.0%
    V1 requirement
    Above 18.0%

    Exactly 18.0% does not pass this V1 rule.

    home_starter_k_minus_bb_not_above_18pct

  • Arizona Diamondbacks bullpenBullpen ERA rank

    Arizona Diamondbacks bullpen recorded a #14 ERA rank. V1 requires each bullpen to be in the top 10 (#1–#10).

    Observed
    #14
    V1 requirement
    Top 10 (#1–#10)

    away_bullpen_era_rank_not_top_10

  • St. Louis Cardinals bullpenBullpen ERA rank

    St. Louis Cardinals bullpen recorded a #19 ERA rank. V1 requires each bullpen to be in the top 10 (#1–#10).

    Observed
    #19
    V1 requirement
    Top 10 (#1–#10)

    home_bullpen_era_rank_not_top_10

Duel Filter V1 · v1.0.0Evaluated Jul 23, 11:44 AM CDTInputs updated Jul 23, 11:44 AM CDTMLB 823042
Jul 23, 5:40 PM CDTComerica Park
Does not match

Away

Kansas City Royals

Randy Dobnakprobable

xERA
5.60
K-BB%
-1.6%
Bullpen
#29

Pitcher stats through 2026-07-23

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Detroit Tigers

Troy Meltonprobable

xERA
3.03
K-BB%
16.5%
Bullpen
#10

Pitcher stats through 2026-07-23

Does not match

The evaluation was complete, but one or more immutable V1 thresholds did not pass.

Thresholds not met

  • Randy DobnakxERA

    Randy Dobnak recorded a 5.60 xERA. V1 requires each starter to be below 3.25.

    Observed
    5.60
    V1 requirement
    Below 3.25

    Exactly 3.25 does not pass this V1 rule.

    away_starter_xera_not_below_3_25

  • Randy DobnakK-BB%

    Randy Dobnak recorded a -1.6% K-BB%. V1 requires each starter to be above 18.0%.

    Observed
    -1.6%
    V1 requirement
    Above 18.0%

    Exactly 18.0% does not pass this V1 rule.

    away_starter_k_minus_bb_not_above_18pct

  • Troy MeltonK-BB%

    Troy Melton recorded a 16.5% K-BB%. V1 requires each starter to be above 18.0%.

    Observed
    16.5%
    V1 requirement
    Above 18.0%

    Exactly 18.0% does not pass this V1 rule.

    home_starter_k_minus_bb_not_above_18pct

  • Kansas City Royals bullpenBullpen ERA rank

    Kansas City Royals bullpen recorded a #29 ERA rank. V1 requires each bullpen to be in the top 10 (#1–#10).

    Observed
    #29
    V1 requirement
    Top 10 (#1–#10)

    away_bullpen_era_rank_not_top_10

Duel Filter V1 · v1.0.0Evaluated Jul 23, 11:44 AM CDTInputs updated Jul 23, 11:44 AM CDTMLB 824247